I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.
Risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT July 28. Green area: Thunderstorms, not expected to be severe. Yellow: Slight risk of severe weather. Red: Moderate risk of severe weather. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 1:57 a.m. EDT
Part of northeastern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:57 a.m. EDT.
The primary threats in the slight risk area are damaging straight-line winds of 58 mph or greater and/or hail of one inch or more in diameter. A small tornado risk also exists. The outlook indicates some forecaster uncertainty, however.
Any storms that form in the northern Indiana NWS county warning area, are most likely from midday to afternoon, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office issued at 6:14 a.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed today.
As you can see on the map above, Fort Wayne is barely in the slight risk area, which includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two except Whitley County and northern Allen County, Ind. The quadrant two counties that are in the slight risk area have the following probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:
Tornado: 2 percent
Damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater: 15 percent
Hail of one inch or more in diameter: 15 percent.
The next SPC outlook for today is due by 9 a.m. EDT.
Meteorologists no longer expect severe weather in northeastern Indiana or northwestern Ohio tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:57 p.m. EDT. The revised slight risk area includes only two of the 37 counties covered by the northern Indiana NWS office — Blackford and Jay. In the other 35 counties, thunderstorms are forecast but meteorologists do not expect those storms to be severe.
Severe weather is still possible, however, tomorrow (Sun.) afternoon in all parts of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, including the Fort Wayne area, according to the SPC’s most recent “Day 2 Convective Outlook.”
Probabilities of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT July 28. Brown area: 5 percent (less than “slight risk”). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Purple: 45 percent (“moderate risk”). Dark shaded area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater risk of significant (sig.) severe weather. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 1:30 p.m. EDT
Approximately the eastern half of Indiana and a large part of western and northern Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Sun.) and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
The slight risk area includes Fort Wayne and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two. A large part of central and southern Ohio has a moderate risk of severe weather. And a slightly larger part of Ohio has a 10 percent or greater risk of “significant” severe weather, which the SPC defines as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producing EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail.
A “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:45 p.m. indicates that the primary threats Sunday are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hail. Any severe storms that form tomorrow are mostly likely in the afternoon and might require another activation of SKYWARN storm spotters.
The next SPC outlook for Sunday is due at 2 a.m. EDT, when the Center issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day.
No part of the U.S. continued to have a moderate risk of severe weather after the National Weather Service Storm (NWS) Prediction Center (SPC) issued its 4 p.m. update to its “Day 1 Convective Outlook.” The entire state of Indiana, however, along with most of Ohio and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, continue to have a slight risk for severe weather between 4 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow.
A meteorologist at the Northern Indiana NWS office shared with emergency managers and news media this afternoon that additional storms might enter northern Indiana around 9 p.m. or 10 p.m. EDT this evening and reach northwestern Ohio by midnight. He indicated that the greatest potential for severe weather would likely be approximately along and south of U.S. 30.
A “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:45 p.m. indicates that damaging winds, isolated hail and localized flash flooding are possible with tonight’s storms. The outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight.
The SPC will issue its next update to the outlook for today by 9 p.m. EDT.
Anyone who is planning outdoor activities today wants to know, as closely as possible, when the weather will get bad. In a blog post, WANE-TV meteorologist Rob Lydick suggests the first round might arrive between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. EDT, followed by a second round around sunset and a more significant round late tonight or overnight.
If you don’t have a weather alert radio that will wake you in the middle of the night before a severe storm hits your home, this afternoon would be a good time to shop for one!
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:28 p.m. EDT July 26.
An updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center indicates no remarkable changes in the severe weather outlook for this afternoon and tonight in Indiana.
The entire state of Indiana and all if IMO SKYWARN quadrant two continues to have at least a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT this afternoon and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Much of central and southern Indiana continues to have a moderate risk.
No part of Indiana, however, now has any more than a 2 percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. With the previous outlook, part of southern Indiana had a 5 percent tornado probability.
The next update to the outlook for today is due by 4 p.m. EDT.
Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT July 26 and 8 a.m. EDT July 27.Probabilities of hail of one inch diameter or larger within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT July 26 and 8 a.m. EDT July 27. Dark red area also has a 10 percent or greater probability of significant hail (two inches or larger).Probabilities of a tornado within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT July 26 and 8 a.m. EDT July 27.Probabilities of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Sun. July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT Mon. Brown area: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Purple: 45 percent (moderate risk). Darkened area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather (see explanation in text).
Most of Indiana and Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather and most of southern Indiana has a moderate risk between 9 a.m. EDT today (July 26) and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:48 a.m. EDT.
The greatest risks today are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and hail of one inch or more in diameter, but a tornado or two is also possible. Remember, however, that a very severe thunderstorm can be more dangerous than a weak tornado.
For today, severe storms are most likely during the evening and overnight hours, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 6:12 a.m. SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight, according to that outlook.
Today and tonight, readers in the Fort Wayne area have a 15 percent probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger, a 15 percent probability of hail of one inch diameter or larger and a 2 percent probability of a tornado. All of these probabilities fit in “slight risk” category but they’re also all markedly higher than the probabilities for a normal day this time of year. Read more about how to interpret outlook probabilities.
In most of the southern half of Indiana (the purple area on the top map), including Indianapolis, Bloomington and Terre Haute, the damaging straight-line wind probability today and tonight is 45 percent, which falls into the “moderate risk” category.
On Sunday, most of the severe weather risk is farther east, but the Fort Wayne area and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two have a slight risk of some form of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Sunday and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 2:06 a.m.
In addition, part of the quadrant (All or parts of the Indiana counties of Adams, Wells, Blackford and Jay and the Ohio counties of Paulding, Van Wert, Putnam and Allen) have a 10 percent or greater risk of significant severe weather during that period. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producing EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail.
Day two outlooks do not provide probabilities for each type of severe weather. The text of the outlook, however, indicates threats of large hail, damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes, especially in the 30 percent (red) and 45 percent (purple) areas. Although Fort Wayne and the rest of quadrant two are in a 15 percent probability area Sunday, none of the three types of severe weather can at this time be ruled out.
Any such storms on Sunday are most likely in the afternoon, when SKYWARN storm spotter activation might again be necessary.
It would be wise for anyone who lives in Indiana or Ohio to make sure they have a way of finding out about any watches or warnings the NWS might issue today or tomorrow, whether they are outdoors at fairs, ball games, etc. or indoors sleeping late at night.
The SPC will update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT and its outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT.
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Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Sat. and 8 a.m. EDT Sun. Brown area: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Darkened area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather (see explanation in text). Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 1:22 p.m.
Central Indiana now has a 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather between 8 a.m. tomorrow (Sat., July 26) and 8 a.m. Sunday, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:22 p.m. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producing EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail. The significant severe weather area includes most of Blackford County, Indiana and the southwestern corner of Jay County, both of which are part of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.
In addition to the addition of a significant severe weather risk, the size of the 30 percent severe weather probability area (high end of “slight risk”) has grown since this morning’s version of the day two outlook. It now includes most of Allen County and Whitley Counties of Indiana, most of Paulding County, Ohio and about half of Putnam County, Ohio.
The outlook described above is subject to change (it could get more or less serious tomorrow nears). Our next look at the outlook for tomorrow (Sat.) comes when the SPC issues its “Day 1 Convective Outlook” due out by 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow.
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Sat. and 8 a.m. EDT Sun. Brown area: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Read more about probabilities. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 2:05 a.m. July 25.
Much of Indiana and Ohio have increased probabilities of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Sat., July 26) and 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 2:05 a.m. EDT. Some areas have twice as much probability of severe weather, as compared to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” the SPC issued yesterday.
All of Indiana and Ohio have a slight risk (a probability of at least 15 percent) of some form of severe weather within 25 miles of a point on Saturday, but a large part of Indiana and Ohio — including most of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two — now have a 30 percent probability, which is on the high end of “slight risk” criteria. When you consider that normal severe weather probabilities in these areas are probably 1 percent or less, a 30 percent probability essentially means that severe weather is approximately 30 times more likely than normal. Read more about how to interpret outlook probabilities.
For readers who might have trouble seeing the map above, within quadrant two, the 30% probability area includes southern Whitley County, extreme southern Allen County (Ind.), extreme southwestern Putnam County and all of the Indiana counties of Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay and the Ohio counties of Van Wert and Allen.
Day two outlooks do not provide probabilities of specific types of severe weather, so the probabilities above refer to one or more of the following: tornadoes, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or higher or hail of one inch or more in diameter.
Saturday meteorology
Here’s what meteorologists expect to happen Saturday: A cold front will travel quickly eastward across Wisconsin and Upper Michigan and then become stalled southwestward across northern Illinois, Iowa and northern Missouri and Kansas through evening. A broad belt of southwesterly winds in the low levels will develop and bring substantial moisture northeastward ahead of the front with dew points in the 70s into Illinois and Indiana by late afternoon. The greatest severe wind potential appears to be during the evening and overnight, from central Illinois eastward across Indiana, northern Kentucky and Western Ohio. Computer models are in good agreement, showing a corridor of strong storms.
A large complex of severe thunderstorms, which could persist for several hours, is possible (a severe mesoscale convective system, for readers who are weather geeks). Changes of wind direction and speed with altitude, which are required to sustain a severe thunderstorm (wind shear) will also increase overnight. Significant wind gusts will be possible. In addition, large, discrete rotating thunderstorms (supercells) are possible if the storms that form do not meld together as quickly as expected. If that happens, a couple tornadoes could occur.
Sunday
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Sun. July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT Mon. Brown area: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent. Red: 30 percent. Darkened area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather (see explanation in text). Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 3 Convective Outlook,” 3:30 a.m.
Slightly more than half of Indiana and all of Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 3:30 a.m.
All of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two — including all of Allen County, Indiana — have a 15 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. More importantly, the entire quadrant has a 10 percent or greater risk of significant severe weather, which the NWS defines as one or more of the following: tornadoes capable of producing EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail. Obviously, significant severe weather is even more rare, so 10 percent represents well more than 10 times the normal probability.
As with Saturday, Sunday’s severe weather will most likely happen late in the day. Meteorologists expect that by late afternoon Sunday, low pressure will settle over Lower Michigan, while a cold front extends southwestward from Indiana into southern Missouri. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable air mass will exist within an environment that has enough wind shear (see above) to support severe storms. Afternoon storm development will most likely happen first along the cold front, from northern Indiana into northern Ohio and extending northeastward across western New York. Supercells (see above) will be the dominant storm mode with very large hail and a tornado or two possible.
It would be a good idea to check today to make sure you have a reliable way to receive weather warnings and watches, especially in the middle of the night Saturday, while you’re sleeping. As always, I recommend a weather alert radio, which you can buy today for around $30 at many local retailers, including Walgreens and Kroger. If you have planned any outdoor activities Saturday afternoon or evening or Sunday afternoon or evening, determine now how you’ll know if a warning is issued while you’re out and where you will take shelter. If you are a SKYWARN storm spotter, be prepared for activation Saturday and Sunday.
The outlooks described above are subject to change (they could get more or less serious as the days they describe approach). Our next look at the outlook for Saturday comes when the SPC updates its “Day 2 Convective Outlook” by 1:30 p.m. EDT. After that, the next look at Saturday comes in a “Day 1 Convective Outlook” due out by 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Out next look at the outlook for Sunday comes in Saturday’s “Day 2 Convective Outlook” also due by 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow.
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