Red area: 30 percent or higher probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. EDT Friday and 8 a.m. EDT Saturday.

Indiana and Ohio are no longer at risk for severe weather this week, according to convective outlooks that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued today. For the past few days, SPC outlooks indicated a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. Friday and 8 a.m. Saturday. As of today’s outlooks, that risk has moved north and no longer includes Indiana or Ohio.

The Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued this morning indicates that thunderstorms are likely in the office’s 37-county area Friday night into Saturday. The outlook does not, however, mention severe thunderstorms. 

These outlooks often change from day to day, however, so it would be wise to check back tomorrow for a look at tomorrow’s Day 3 Convective Outlook to see if the forecast has changed again.

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service published the above infographic today to explain the heat index that will appear in forecasts and advisories this week.

Peru, Indiana homes damaged by July 10, 2013 tornado. Emergency management agency photo from NWS Facebook page.

By guest blogger Michael Lewis, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Northern Indiana office

The National Weather Service (NWS) northern Indiana office received delayed reports of storm damage when an EF-1 tornado hit Peru, Indiana July 10. The northern Indiana office is located near North Webster and is responsible for issuing warnings for all of Miami County (of which Peru is county seat). The same office issues warnings for neighboring Wabash and Grant Counties. (See a map of all counties warned by the northern Indiana office.)

It is fortunate that the Peru tornado lasted for only five minutes and 3.5 miles. The absence of first-hand damage reports affected the warning process; requiring National Weather Service forecasters to rely on radar data and limited surface-based meteorological conditions as they issued subsequent warnings. In other words, the lack of timely and credible damage reports made the warning process more challenging. Had reports of damage been received closer to the actual time of occurrence, forecasters would have been able to refocus on other meteorological and radar data, and changed the message and content of the subsequent impact-based warnings.

As the storms continued to organize, strengthen and move east, the Northern Indiana NWS office searched for details of damage in the warned areas. This included searching numerous social media sites, making phone calls and listening to police and fire radio transmissions. The office continued to issue warnings as it gathered reports of wind damage, torrential rainfall and large hail.

Shortly after 3:11 p.m., a Facebook post indicated that damage had occurred in Peru but it didn’t provide complete details.
 
The NWS office received its first reliable information of the situation in Peru at 3:57 p.m., nearly two and a half hours after the tornado struck! At that time, a media partner forwarded a message that an Indianapolis journalist had posted in an Internet chat room devoted to the Indianapolis NWS office. The Indianapolis journalist relayed a report of extensive damage that he received from Kris Marks, the Miami County Emergency Management Agency director.

NWS northern Indiana office meteorologists surveyed the damage in Peru the day after the storm. During that survey, several local officials stated that reports of damage had been forwarded to news media in Indianapolis — not the National Weather Service. During the discussion with several other residents who witnessed the damaging storm, the common statement was that they rely on Indianapolis media because “that’s where they get their weather from.”

Public safety officials and the media in every community need to understand how the weather alert system works. They need to understand that reliable reports of storm damage must be forwarded to the appropriate NWS office as soon as possible.

These reports are critical to a successful warning process. While the damage was already done in Peru, such damage reports critically affect warnings for the next township, community and county over. While the Indianapolis news media broadcasts warning information, official tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for Miami County and many other counties in the same area originate from the National Weather Service office in northern Indiana. The media cannot issue warnings that trigger the NOAA Weather Radio and Emergency Alert Systems. Any delay in reporting damage to the NWS can therefore significantly affect public safety.

Fortunately in this event, warnings were issued and the event occurred during daylight hours; no lives were lost.  It is critical to understand that the next time we may not be as fortunate.

Failure by local officials to relay reports to the appropriate NWS office hinders the NWS’ ability to issue warnings and prevents the NWS from fulfilling it’s mission of saving lives.

My thanks to Michael Lewis for this first-hand perspective of the issue. -W9LW

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service published the above infographic this morning to help residents prepare for a dangerous heat wave it has forecast.

Purple area: 30 percent or higher probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. Friday and 8 a.m. Saturday..

Extreme northern Indiana and Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Friday, July 19 and 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, July 20, according to the Day 5 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued today. The risk area includes Allen County, Indiana and Indiana counties to the north and west of Allen County. It also includes Paulding County, Ohio and Ohio counties to the north and east of Paulding County. The current risk area does not include Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford or Jay Counties of Indiana, nor Van Wert or Allen Counties of Ohio.

The severe thunderstorms are most likely late Friday into Saturday, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued today by the northern Indiana NWS office.

Out next look at the risk of severe weather for Friday comes in the Day 4 Convective Outlook that SPC will issue early tomorrow morning.

Northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and extreme southern lower Michigan could experience a prolonged period of hot and humid weather this week, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook from the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office. The outlook forecasts that high temperatures of approximately 90 degrees Monday through Friday, combined with high humidity, will yield afternoon heat indices (“feels like” temperatures) of between 95 and 100 degrees.

The NWS is advising resident to make sure they’re prepared for the heat. Drink plenty of water, check on elderly neighbors, and never leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle.Much more valuable heat safety information is available on the NWS website. This information is of particular importance to anyone who plans to attend a summer festival this week, including Fort Wayne’s Three Rivers Festival.

In addition, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms in northern Indiana between 8 a.m. EDT Friday and 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, according to a Day 6 convective outlook the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued today. The risk area includes almost all but the southernmost counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office (see map below). All of Allen County, Indiana is included in the risk area, so this could be another issue for the Three Rivers Festival.

Yellow area: 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, July 20 and 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, July 21.

We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. This statement will be updated when further information becomes available.

A National Weather Service damage survey team confirmed today that an EF-1 tornado touched down near Peru, Indiana July 10. Meteorologists estimate that the twister contained 95 mph winds. It was on the ground for 3.5 miles and lasted only five minutes. See photographs of some of the damage.

The tornado touched down at 1:28 p.m. NWS had not issued tornado warning. The tornado was probably too small to be detected by Doppler radar. NWS did, however, issue a severe thunderstorm warning for the same area at 1:19 p.m., nine minutes before the tornado touched down. NWS had issued a severe thunderstorm watch that included Miami County at 12:35 p.m., 53 minutes for the tornado touched down.

Thunderstorm warning issued at 1:19 p.m. Covered the area within yellow outline.

The moral to this story: Do not ignore severe thunderstorm warnings! Severe thunderstorms can and do produce tornadoes quickly. Plus, even without a tornado, a severe thunderstorm can do as much damage as a weak tornado.

P.S. Thanks to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet website for making it easy to research previous-day warnings, etc.