Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of “significant” wind gusts of 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (Read more about probability figures.)

The entire state of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between 4 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 4:06 p.m. EDT. The previous version of the outlook indicated less risk for the northern quarter of Indiana. The expanded slight risk area also covers all Ohio counties in the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office, as well as parts of three of the CWA’s Michigan counties.

The primary risks remain damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch in diameter or larger. In the slight risk area of the northern Indiana CWA, the probability of either occurring within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. In southeastern Indiana, however, the damaging wind probability rises to 30 percent. Read more about the meaning of these numbers.

SPC meteorologists extended the 30 percent severe wind probability to the east across parts of Illinois and Indiana because of a band of multicellular storms that poses a downburst wind threat and that are settling into a corridor of strong to locally extreme instability over these areas through evening, according to the 4 p.m. outlook.

The next update to today’s convective outlook is due by 9 p.m. EDT.

Scattered to numerous storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in vicinity of the Indiana, Ohio and western Pennsylvania I-70 corridor, according to Mesoscale Discussion number 1293, which the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:18 p.m. EDT. Strong to locally severe multi-cellular storms capable of isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail might accompany the stronger cores. It is unlikely at this time, however, that the SPC will issue a watch.

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather. Green: General (non-severe) thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: NWS Northern Indiana county warning area. Source: “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:30 p.m. EDT

See an update to this story: All of Indiana under slight risk as of 4 p.m. EDT.

The updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:30 p.m. EDT included no significant changes from the 9 a.m. EDT version as it pertains to the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

The boundaries of the slight risk area remain the same as do the probabilities of the following occurring within 25 miles of a point:

• Tornado: 2 percent
• Damaging thunderstorm winds of at least 58 mph: 15 percent
• Hail of at least one inch in diameter: 15 percent

The next update to the outlook for today is due by 4 p.m. EDT.

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather. Green: General (non-severe) thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: NWS Northern Indiana county warning area. Source: “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:47 a.m. EDT.

See an update to this story.

The southern three quarters of Indiana and most of Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT.

In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the slight risk area includes extreme southern Huntington, Wells and Adams Counties, Blackford County, Jay County, southeastern Van Wert County, southeastern Putnam County and Allen County, Ohio.

The primary threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch in diameter or larger, but meteorologists cannot rule out an isolated tornado, as well.

Meteorologists expect any severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. SKYWARN storm spotter activation is possible this afternoon, especially south of U.S. 24, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:32 a.m.

The SPC will next update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Plots of 11 tornado paths from June 30 and July 1 outbreak. Source: northern Indiana NWS office.

As of 4 p.m. July 4, surveyors from the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service have found evidence of 11 tornadoes from the June 30/July 1, 2014 outbreak. Check out the Web page devoted to the outbreak for detailed information.

As official surveys of damage continued yesterday, National Weather Service experts found evidence of additional tornadoes from the June 30 – July 1 overnight storms. As of this morning, surveyors have identified seven tornado touchdowns with at least one in each of the following counties:

• Marshall 
• Kosciusko 
• Wabash 
• Whitley 
• Lagrange

Nonetheless, tornadoes were responsible for neither of the deaths that occurred. Strong, straight-line, thunderstorm winds blew down both of the trees that killed a 14-year-old boy in Winona Lake and a 64-year-old man at Big Long Lake in Lagrange County. Here’s a link to the latest survey results on the NWS website.

Tornadoes are dangerous, but severe thunderstorms cause statistically more damage and injuries than do tornadoes in northeastern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to ignore severe thunderstorm warnings and to take action only when the NWS issues tornado warnings.

Pass the word. Share this message on your social media networks (see the buttons below for your convenience) and elsewhere. Severe thunderstorms are dangerous. The next time the NWS issues a severe thunderstorm warning for your area, pay attention and take shelter. And if you don’t have a way to be awakened when the NWS issues such warnings in the middle of the night, get a weather alert radio.

Radar loop of severe weather event June 30 and July 1, 2014

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service has created a Web page dedicated to the severe thunderstorm and tornado event that struck its county warning area June 30 and July 1, 2014. The page is still under development but already contains lots of interesting information (like the radar loop above).

Here’s a link to the page.