Almost all of Indiana and all but northeastern Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued (early) at 10:46 a.m. EDT.
The primary threat remains damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger.
There’s still some uncertainty about severe weather in northeastern Indiana today, but the best chances for severe storms across the Fort Wayne area are between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, according to a meteorologist at the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office.
As of 9 a.m. EDT, almost all of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather, according to a convective outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Storms could form along and ahead of a sharp cold front that is forecast to move through the area later today.
The SPC will update its outlook for the day by 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Nearly the entire state of Indiana and almost all of Ohio — including all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two — has a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:53 a.m. EDT.
This slight risk area represents a significant change from earlier outlooks, greatly broadening the slight risk area.
By far, the greatest concern is damaging straight-line thunderstorm wind of 58 mph or greater. Indiana and Ohio have a 15 percent probability of such winds occurring within 25 miles of a point (see an explanation of outlook probability figures). The tornado and hail probabilities during the period are less than two percent and five percent, respectively.
Meteorologists expect any severe storms in the area to develop this afternoon and SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” issued by the northern Indiana NWS office at 4:45 a.m.
Anyone planning outdoor activities today should be sure to have a way to remain aware of any watches or warnings that the NWS might issue today.
As always, outlooks and forecasts are subject to change. The SPC will next update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.
A story in the “Wichita Eagle” contradicts part of the Eric Holthaus “Slate” story about which I wrote earlier.
Holthaus writes:
A recent nationwide upgrade to the National Weather Service’s Doppler radar network has probably rendered storm chasers obsolete anyway. The new technology, called “dual polarization,” can help meteorologists confirm that a tornado is indeed causing damage. NOAA calls the upgrade “as good if not better than a spotter report of a tornado.”
On the other hand, “Eagle” reporter Stan Finger writes:
Storm spotters and well-educated chasers have an important role even before a tornado develops, officials say.
“The benefit of the spotter is not just to report the tornado,” said Bill Bunting, chief of the operations branch at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. “The benefit is also to accurately describe the precursor conditions.”
via Weather officials: Radar technology can’t replace storm spotters | Wichita Eagle.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued “Mesoscale Discussion” number 1354 that indicates a 40 percent probability of a watch this afternoon.
Meteorologists no longer expect severe weather in northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio or southern Lower Michigan between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:28 p.m. EDT.
As you can see on the map above, no part of the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office falls in the slight risk area. Approximately the southern half of Indiana, however, has a slight risk of severe weather during the period, as do parts of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York.
In fact, at 12:37 p.m. EDT, the SPC issued a “Mesoscale Discussion” in which it indicated it would likely issue a weather watch for part of the slight risk area, as you can see on the map above.
Taking a look ahead, convective outlooks for the next eight days indicate no risk of severe weather in the NWS Northern Indiana CWA.
Meteorologists no longer expect severe weather in the Fort Wayne area today or tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:58 a.m. Since yesterday’s “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” the SPC has redrawn today’s slight risk area. It now includes the northwestern corner of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office, but it does not include Fort Wayne or any part of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.
Heavy rain might still affect Fort Wayne’s Three Rivers Festival, however. At the time of this writing, radar indicated a large area of rain, the leading edge of which extended from near South Bend to near Indianapolis.
Tomorrow, however is a different story. A large part of Indiana — including Fort Wayne and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two except Whitley County — has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Sunday) and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 2 a.m. EDT.
SPC meteorologists expect one or more west-to-east bands of thunderstorms to evolve through the late afternoon tomorrow. The primary hazard will be damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger.
The severe weather outlooks for both today and tomorrow could still change. The SPC will issue a new outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT and a new outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT.
Storm chasing has become more controversial lately, as I indicated in a recent post. Here’s a link to another article on the topic:
Why This Former Storm Chaser Now Thinks Stalking Tornadoes Is Unethical.
Here’s one of the points the author makes:
1) Storm chasers are not saving lives. In fact, storm chasers sometimes put themselves at risk and further burden local emergency managers should they require assistance. Chasers call this phenomenon “chaser convergence,” and it sometimes crowds rural and remote roadways to the point that emergency vehicles can no longer pass.
I think “Slate” author Eric Holthaus over generalizes a bit when he writes, “Storm chasers are not saving lives.”
Some chasers are true scientists who conduct research that might someday save lives by enabling improved forecasts, for example. And some chasers act as both chasers and SKYWARN storm spotters when in the field — in other words, these chasers report the severe weather they see to the nearest National Weather Service office.
Chasers who do bona fide research and those who make reports to the NWS might be saving lives, either in the long term or short term. On the other hand, Holthaus might be correct, if he refers to the remainder of chasers, who neither do true research nor call in reports.
What do you think? Add your comments to this post.
The northern third of Indiana, including Fort Wayne, has a slight risk of severe storms between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (July 12) and 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, according to a “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:10 a.m.
People planning to attend outdoor events of the Fort Wayne Three Rivers Festival tomorrow should assure that they have a way to know about any weather warnings the NWS might issue tomorrow. Possibilities include carrying a portable weather alert radio, installing a weather alert app on a smartphone and listening to a local radio station.
The timing of storms remains uncertain but the current outlook seems to indicate they are most likely Saturday night into early Sunday.
In addition to Fort Wayne, the slight risk area includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, except for the Ohio counties of Allen and Putnam and the southeastern half of Jay County, Indiana.
The SPC will issue an updated outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT today. By 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow, an outlook for tomorrow will include probabilities of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail.
We are keeping a close eye on the complicated forecast for Saturday. Severe weather is a possibility. pic.twitter.com/uOl56V2KIA
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) July 11, 2014