…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING… HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. IMPACTS…
View the full statement on the NWS website.
Slight risk area widens slightly at midday
A large part of Indiana and parts of nearby states continue to have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:08 p.m. EDT.
The slight risk area continues to include almost all of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. The SPC widened the slight risk area a bit since it’s 9 a.m. EDT outlook.
The latest outlook indicates that scattered strong to severe storms might produce locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail across parts of the lower Great Lakes and Midwest later this afternoon into tonight.
The atmospheric set-up appears favorable for the development of lines and/or small clusters of mainly multi-cell storms from parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into Lower Michigan and the lower Great Lakes later today and into tonight, as surface heating further destabilizes the atmosphere along and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Storms that form will pose a conditional risk for damaging wind and possibly severe hail, given the very warm and humid environment near the Earth’s surface. Small bows and/or arcing line segments are possible. Although the strongest storms should occur before mid to late evening, strong activity could persist into late tonight and early Saturday over Ohio and the lower Great lakes.
An updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook” issued at 12:05 p.m. EDT by the northern Indiana NWS office continues to indicate that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight.
The next outlook update from the SPC is due out by 4 p.m. EDT.
NWS issues first heat advisory of 2014
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued its first heat advisory of the 2014 calendar year today. The verbatim advisory appears below.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1146 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016- 024-025-052200- /O.NEW.KIWX.HT.Y.0001.140905T1700Z-140905T2200Z/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT- ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN... WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD... HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING... ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS... VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 1146 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 /1046 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014/ ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. IMPACTS... * THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE A SITUATION WHERE HEAT ILLNESS IS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
Local NWS: Today’s severe threat to be isolated, short-lived
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service expects isolated thunderstorm development ahead of an approaching cold front, according to an email message the office sent to SKYWARN storm spotters and others this morning. “We expect that the severe threat will be ISOLATED and SHORT LIVED,” the email reads.
The message also provides the following timing and impact information:
Timing
- Through 3 p.m. EDT: Isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusts greater than 30 mph and lightning.
- 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. EDT: More organized lines of thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorm potential.
- 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. EDT: Threat of thunderstorms shifts south and east across the region with best organization and threat southeast of a line from Monticello, Indiana to Hillsdale, Michigan.
Impacts
Numerous fairs/festivals and football games will be going on during this time frame. All venues should be making plans for thunderstorm development, monitor NWS Web pages and have NOAA Weather Radio programmed and operational.
Slight risk of severe storms in northeastern Indiana, neighboring states
All of northeastern Indiana has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:46 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area also includes parts of northwestern Ohio, southern Lower Michigan, Illinois and Missouri. It includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants one, two and three and the southeastern half of quadrant four.
The primary threats in the slight risk area are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and large hail of one inch or more in diameter. The tornado threat today is negligible (less than a 2 percent probability), according to the SPC.
Storms are most likely in the afternoon and evening. The risk of severe weather will decline rapidly after 11 p.m. EDT.
SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:21 a.m.
The SPC will update its severe weather outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Little change in midday update of day 2 severe outlook
Much of Indiana continues to have a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:20 p.m. EDT.
The probability of severe weather (5 percent) continued to fall below the SPC’s “slight risk” criteria. As you can see on the map above, the SPC adjusted that 5 percent area so that it no longer includes southern Indiana.
Our next look at the severe weather outlook for tomorrow comes when the SPC issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day tomorrow. It’s due out by 2 a.m. EDT.
Thunderstorms tomorrow could be strong
Meteorologists expect scattered thunderstorms in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office issued at 4:43 a.m. EDT. There is a low risk that some of those storms could be strong, with isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.
The NWS storm prediction center gave the area a 5 percent probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 12:26 a.m. EDT. Five percent is below SPC’s “slight risk” criteria, but the SPC indicated that if higher probabilities are needed in future outlooks, “it would seem to be areas of lower Michigan into perhaps northern Indiana or northwestern Ohio.”
The next outlook for tomorrow will be an updated SPC day two outlook, due out by 1:30 p.m. EDT.
Good weather for tonight’s Tincaps playoff game
The Fort Wayne Tincaps minor league baseball team plays the first game of the Midwest League post-season playoffs tonight at Parkview Field in downtown Fort Wayne and the official National Weather Service forecast looks nice of an evening of baseball:
- Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
- Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph.
The NWS game-time forecast is 80 degrees, with a relative humidity of 54 percent and a 5 mph breeze from the south. The temperature should drop to 72 degrees by 10 p.m.
Go ‘caps!
Remaining fog will burn off quickly this AM. Here's the view from @NWSIWX. What's it look like where you are? pic.twitter.com/zwUprBF5Du
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) September 3, 2014
Special Weather Statement issued September 03 at 5:01AM EDT by NWS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 501 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-031230- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 501 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 /401 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014/ ...AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES AT TIMES THIS MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHILE DRIVING AND BE AWARE OF CHILDREN AT BUS STOPS...SCHOOL BUSES AND OTHER SLOWED OR STOPPED TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.