The National Weather Service (NWS) is preparing to revise the web page for its Skywarn® storm spotter program. The agency is seeking photographs to use on the revised web page.
Photographs should depict real-life, safe and responsible spotter activities. Examples include a ham radio operator holding a handheld radio while looking at the sky, or a spotter typing a message on a smart phone, etc. The ideal photos imply action (vs. portraits) and are set outdoors. Due to government policies, NWS declines to use photos of spotters sitting behind the steering wheel of a vehicle while using a mobile radio.
Skywarn volunteer Jay Farlow is gathering photos for a contact at NWS, so contributors should send the photos to arsw9lw@gmail.com by March 31. Contributors should provide contact information of each photographer, so the NWS can confirm it has permission to use the photos.
The Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (IWX) conducted a webinar for its partners at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday, January 31, to discuss a winter storm forecasted to hit its area in the following days. Here is a summary of the information shared during the initial briefing and subsequent question-and-answer session.
IWX meteorologist expected to upgrade the existing winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for at least part of the IWX forecast area by 3:30 p.m. ET Jan. 31. Update: IWX issued a winter storm warning for some of its counties at 3:21 p.m. ET. Visit the IWX web page for details.
IWX plans to issue a new multimedia briefing via YouTube Wednesday morning and conduct a second partner webinar Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast timeline of expected winter storm weather
Forecasters expect the event to begin with a light wintery mix in South Bend Tuesday evening, with rain elsewhere, eventually changing to heavy snow in all areas, as indicated by the timeline graphic above.
Forecaster confidence on winter storm timing is high. Uncertainty is in the transition from rain/sleet/freezing rain to heavy snow, especially along and south of U.S. 24.
Snow accumulation forecast for first round of snow Tuesday night through Wednesday.
IWX shared the graphic above regarding snowfall total for the first of two rounds of snowfall and cautioned partners that the forecast accumulation numbers are very likely to change between now and the beginning of the storm.
Probabilities of exceeding snowfall thresholds.
IWX shared the graphic above regarding probabilities of heavy snowfall and commented that the storm could be on the order of a one-in-five-year or one-in-ten-year event.
Winds are not forecasted to be significant during this first round of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. That snow will be fairliy wet and heavy and therefore unlikely to blow and drift.
High winds, blowing and drifting snow are likely Wednesday night through Thursday.
IWX forecasts a lighter, drier snow Wednesday night through Thursday. Combined with wind gusts forecasted to reach as high as 35 mph, significant blowing and drifing of snow is forecast, especially on east-west roads in rural and open areas. Whiteout conditions are possible. Roads could drift back over shortly after snow plows pass through on Thursday.
Wind chills are forecasted to be below zero by Thursday night, causing a potential hazard for any motorists stranded in snow.
IWX forecasts ice accumulation to be brief in most areas, and not a great impact. Ice amounts will be less significant than heavy snow.
Today, I gave an introductory presentation about ham radio DMR, how to find information about DMR repeaters in Indiana and the steps involved in programming a DMR radio with a new “codeplug.” As promised, you may get a PDF copy of my presentation slides by following the link below.
Are you, or is someone you know interested in getting started with DMR? Are you having trouble programming your DMR radio? Do you know where to find the needed information on every DMR repeater in Indiana?
The DMR forum during the North Central Indiana Hamfest in Peru Aug. 28 might be for you!
Hamfest planners invited me to lead a forum from 11 a.m. to noon. Below is a rough outline of what I plan to cover:
Introduction to DMR.
Talkgroups, DMR’s “virtual channels.”
DMR networks, and how they’re different.
Obtaining a DMR ID number.
DMR repeaters: What you need to know and how to find out.
Programming a DMR radio.
Operating a DMR radio.
Share this info with anyone you know who’s interested in DMR.
I have created a guide to help users of the Anytone AT-D878UV handheld, DMR amateur radio create codeplugs for their radios.
The link below will provide the latest version of the document, which I have updated since publishing the original version. Version 2.65, uploaded January 29, 2023, adds advice on matching the CPS version to the firmware version.
Restrictions implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19 will affect one of the ways SKYWARN® storm spotters send reports to local National Weather Service (NWS) offices. Many NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs) have amateur (ham) radio equipment permanently installed. During severe weather events, volunteer ham radio operators operate that equipment to receive reports of tornadoes and other dangerous weather from fellow hams who are storm spotters.
Now, however, the NWS is forbidding anyone not directly connected with the agency from entering WFOs, according to NWS Northern Indiana warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis. That means that ham radio stations at WFOs are less likely to be on the air during severe weather events. Some NWS meteorologists have ham radio licenses and some of those might be able to sporadically operate WFO ham stations. But Lewis told me that to reduce exposure to disease, the NWS is trying to operate WFOs with as few people in the office as possible. This might mean that NWS meteorologists who have ham licenses will have no time to operate the ham radio equipment.
Ham radio operators will still be able to use their radios to report severe weather, but they’ll need someone other hams to relay those reports to their local WFOs. That’s where an internal NWS text chat system will be essential, Lewis said. The system is called NWSChat and access is limited a select population. That groups includes ham radio operators who serve as net control station operators. Local ham radio SKYWARN groups can (and should) designate such leaders to serve as liaisons between the radio networks and NWSChat.
Whether or not spotters have ham radio licenses, other ways to communicate reports continue to be available, including telephone calls to WFOs and Twitter tweets that include the appropriate WFO’s Twitter handle.
The voice communication app Zello can also be helpful to SKYWARN storm spotters. Unfortunately, Zello’s terms and conditions do not comply with federal government requirements, so NWS WFOs are prohibited from installing Zello on any government-owned devices. A specific Zello channel exists (“IWX SKYWARN”) for reports from areas covered by the Northern Indiana office. Because WFO staff are prohibited from using Zello, ham radio net control station operators, who have NWSChat accounts, plan to monitor the Zello channel as much as possible, to relay reports from spotters to the WFO.
All this could be tested tomorrow, March 19, when severe weather is forecast in much of Indiana.
Note: I updated the post below on March 11, to reflect state guidance on when to call your doctor. Knowledge about the epidemic is changing rapidly, so other information in this blog post could become outdated at any time.
My wife and I had dinner last night with a long-time friend who is in active practice as a family practice physician. She shared some information about the COVID-19 coronavirus disease that I consider so helpful, I want to share it.
First, don’t panic! The vast majority of us, who have no preexisting illnesses that make us more vulnerable, will experience symptoms similar to influenza or a very bad cold if we’re infected by coronavirus 2019. That means fever, lots of coughing and sneezing, and possibly generalized body aches. It won’t be pleasant, but it won’t require hospitalization and certainly won’t be fatal — for most of us.
Data is still coming in with which public health experts calculate mortality and hospitalization rates. At the time of this writing, however, they think 10 to 20 percent of infected people will require hospitalization and around 3.8 percent (38 out of every 1,000 people infected) will die. Again, people who have other, chronic health problems, like cardio vascular disease or chronic, obstructive pulmonary disease, are much more likely to become seriously ill or die than those of us who are relatively healthy before the virus infects us.
Even if our symptoms are mild, if we are diagnosed with COVID-19, we be asked to isolate ourselves at home until our symptoms disappear. Our physician friend says her employer told her that if she contracts the disease, her employer will not allow her to return to work until 24 hours pass without a single symptom, including cough.
Isolation means isolation! We will be expected to make no trips to the grocery, drug store, or anywhere except a medical facility for care. When diagnosed, we’ll be told to go straight home, without stopping for supplies or medicines. Failure to adhere to such restrictions could put the health of more vulnerable people at risk.
Because none of us know when infection might happen, our physician friend told us she has made sure her house is stocked with everything she might need for two weeks of isolation: food, medicine, pet food, facial tissues, etc. Today, Peggy and I did the same thing. We purchased nonperishable foods that we can store for months, because we could get infected today or a couple months from now. We also stocked up on the same over-the-counter medicines we would use to treat a bad cold: acetaminophen (Tylenol®) for fever, diphenhydramine (Benadryl®) for sneezing and runny nose, pseudoephedrine hydrochloride (Sudafed®) for nasal congestion caused by swollen membranes, guaifenesin (Mucinex®) for chest congestion from excess phlegm, and dextromethorphan (Delsym®) for cough.
Another revelation I got from our physician friend regards seeking care for what might seem like a bad cold or flu, something I would not normally do. March 11, the Indiana State Department of Health tweeted about who should contact their healthcare providers when they become ill:
Should you be tested for #COVID19? If you feel sick with fever, cough or difficulty breathing, and have been in close contact with a person known to have #COVID19, call your healthcare professional. More tips at https://t.co/KVU1A8m13n.
— Indiana Department of Health (@StateHealthIN) March 11, 2020
Previously, I reported that our physician friend suggested is that if I come down with a bad cough with fever, I should call my doctor, even though I wouldn’t normally do so for a viral illness like the cold or flu. Normally, if I experience such symptoms, I just treat them myself symptomatically, because I know there’s nothing my doctor can give me to cure a viral illness. But while the COVID-19 epidemic is still going on, we should change that practice and at least call our doctors if we have a fever and cough, so the doctor can decide whether to test us for COVID-19. Why bother with a test that won’t change the method of treatment? Because if we’re lucky and the test shows no COVID-19, isolation at home won’t be as important.
Now, it seems clear that relatively few people who contact their healthcare providers will even be eligible for a COVID-19 test. This is just one example of how information about this epidemic is changing by the day, and sometimes by the hour.
About the only things any of us can do to prevent infection is to stay away from infected people and wash our hands frequently. This is challenging enough as we go through our daily lives, but reports that some people can have the disease without having symptoms themselves further complicates the former tactic. To me, this means we should all expect to contract COVID-19 and prepare now for the isolation we’ll need to practice when it happens.
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service conducted a webinar briefing for partners this afternoon, regarding the potential for moderate to major flooding, beginning later this week.
Meteorologist Chris Roller explained that the office has forecast three to four inches of rainfall throughout the office’s 37-county warning area late Thursday through early Sunday. Some areas could get up to six inches. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to begin during the day Friday and to diminish on Saturday.
Roller said that the Wabash and Maumee River Basins have the greatest potential to receive flooding. He added that flooding has the potential to continue from late this week into next week and that some rivers could crest early next week due to runoff.
Roller focused his briefing on four river locations:
Tiffin River at Stryker, Ohio
Auglaize River at Defiance, Ohio
Eel River at North Manchester, Indiana
Ottawa River near Kalida, Ohio
Roller said, however, that flooding is also possible on the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana.
The orange area in the graphic above indicates the range for the most likely outcomes along the area rivers. The charts above indicate the possibility of major flooding on the Tiffin, Auglaize and Ottawa Rivers and moderate flooding on the Eel River.
Roller said forecasters have high confidence in a heavy rain event occurring with three to four inches and locally higher amounts to six inches possible. He said river flooding and flooding in normal flood-prone areas is likely.
Roller encouraged citizens to report to NWS Northern Indiana visual evidence of flooding along the rivers, saying that data can be more valuable than river gauge readings.
The office plans an updated briefing Thursday afternoon.
