Category Archives: SKYWARN

SKYWARN

Outsiders not welcome on Texas ham radio storm spotter net

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Members only sign handing on door knobUpdate: Texas ARES official bans closed nets

Trained storm spotters in the National Weather Service (NWS) SKYWARN program who are also licensed amateur (ham) radio operators should not assume they’ll be welcome on SKYWARN nets while traveling.

A Wichita Falls, Texas newspaper article republished this week on the “Emergency Management” magazine website reports that a local official of the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) is concerned that hams who are not members of the Wichita County ARES – especially hams who are storm chasers – try to check into the group’s SKYWARN net. The “Times Record News” report called such hams “intruders” who net control stations must “shoo” from their “closed radio frequency.” Such hams “are told they are welcome to listen — but not to talk,” the newspaper reports.

Here’s an audio recording of the exchange that prompted the newspaper story:

ARES is a program of the American Radio Relay League (ARRL), the national organization of ham radio operators. Regional, elected ARRL section managers appoint ARES leaders within their sections, including district emergency coordinators, who lead the program at a multi-county level.

The newspaper article quotes ARES district emergency coordinator Charlie Byars, W5GPO. This blog contacted Byars via email for more information about the situation in northern Texas. He confirms that during severe weather events, the W5US repeater system on which the local SKYWARN net operates becomes closed.

A repeater is a system commonly used by ham radio operators that receives a signal and re-transmits it, usually with higher power and from a better location, to provide greater communication range. Such equipment is often owned by clubs and sometimes by individuals. While the radio frequencies that repeaters use belong to the public, federal regulation 47 CFR 97.205(e) explicitly permits the owner of any repeater to limit its use to certain stations.

Byars explains that the W5US repeater is normally open to all hams, but its owners invoke 47 CFR 97.205(e) and close it to unauthorized users during severe weather events. But, Byars adds, that doesn’t prevent any ham from reporting severe weather. “We will take an emergency report from anyone, and refer the information to the NWS office,” he explains.

Beyond the transmission of an emergency report, however, the owners of the W5US repeater prohibit any use of the repeater during SKYWARN operations by anyone who is not a member of the local ARES group.

This blog contacted ARRL staff via email to learn whether the national organization offers guidance to leaders of its ARES program regarding the use of closed nets. The League’s April 23 reply appears in a separate post.

Fortunately for people like the Australian radio amateur who attempted to check into the Texas ARES net, the NWS office in Norman, Okla. – which serves that part of Texas. – welcomes “spotters, chasers and anyone else” to “submit storm reports at any time,” writes Rick Smith, KI5GT, the office’s warning coordination meteorologist. In an email to this blog, Smith suggests the following alternatives to ham radio, in order of office preference: Telephone, SpotterNetwork.org, a form on the office’s website and Twitter.

Find more details about various ways to participate in the SKYWARN program while traveling, in my March 6 post to this blog.

Is your local SKYWARN net closed to outsiders? Do you have any opinions on the practice? Leave a comment to let us know.

SKYWARN

The truth about wireless emergency alerts

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All national commercial mobile service providers (CMSPs) in the U.S. do their best to approximate National Weather Service warning polygons when relaying tornado warnings through the wireless emergency alert (WEA) system, according to an executive of CTIA, a wireless industry trade group. The result is geographic targeting that is more granular that the county-wide targeting of NOAA Weather Radio. And the industry is considering proposals to further improve the geographic targeting of WEA.

Information that CTIA assistant vice president for regulatory affairs Brian Josef provided to “W9LW’s Ramblings” contradicts a graphic that appeared on Twitter April 6 (below).

The graphic in the tweet originally appeared in a 2013 blog by WeatherCall, a company whose sales pitch includes pointing out shortcomings of WEA and other warning modalities. The tweet and blog post claim that wireless emergency alerts get sent by every CMSP tower in every county covered by a warning polygon, thus providing irrelevant warnings to more people than would receive the warning via NOAA Weather Radio.

Brian Josef, Assistant Vice President for Regulatory Affairs, CTIA
Josef

This might have been true when WEA was first implemented in 2012, the CTIA’s Josef told this blog. And to this day, federal regulations for WEA continue to permit the practice of alerting entire counties. But shortly after WEA was implemented, carriers found ways to improve the granularity of alerts. Today, every national carrier geographically targets tornado warnings based on NWS polygons, Josef said.

The system remains less than perfect, however. The most common way carriers target the reception of WEA messages is by broadcasting them only from the towers that are physically located within the warning polygon, according to a 2015 report by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

In the graphic example below, black hexagons represent the coverage areas of one carrier’s cell towers (in reality, coverage areas are not hexagonal) and the black dots in the center of each hexagon represent the towers themselves (in reality, towers are not usually spaced so evenly). The red polygon represents the boundary of an example tornado warning. Green hexagons represent the areas that would receive that warning via WEA, if the carrier sends it only via towers that are located within the polygon.

Selecting cell towers (black dots) within a tornado warning polygon (red) is the most common way mobile carrier geographically target wireless emergency alerts, according to a Johns Hopkins University study.
Selecting cell towers (black dots) within a tornado warning polygon (red) is the most common way mobile carriers geographically target wireless emergency alerts, according to a Johns Hopkins University study. W9LW graphic.

As you can see in the graphic above, people in the white areas inside the red polygon will not receive the warning, even though the warning includes their locations. People in green areas outside the red polygon will receive the warning, even though the warning does not include their locations.

“There’s always going to be some overshoot, there’s going to be some undershoot, but they’re trying to employ the techniques that best approximate that alert area,” Josef said of the mobile phone carriers.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University suggest a new, more precise geo-targeting method for wireless emergency alerts in a report published last June that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security commissioned. It proposes arbitrary-size, location-aware targeting (ASLAT), through which carriers would broadcast an alert over an area larger than the warning polygon and individual mobile devices would determine whether to display the warning, based on each device’s own calculation of its location.

ASLAT would require some changes to existing WEA standards, cellular network functionality and mobile device behavior. Josef stressed the importance of assuring that any new targeting technique not increase data congestion on cell sites at a time when weather conditions would already increase device usage.

“The carriers are constantly looking at ways to further refine and enhance geo-targeting techniques,” Josef said. “We also want to make sure we don’t endanger what has been a successful service.”

SKYWARN

Illinois man video-records tornado hitting his house, survives against all odds

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Against all odds, Clem Schultz somehow survived a direct tornado strike on his Fairdale, Illinois home, while video-recording the storm. His video (above), while dramatic, provides a poor example. He needlessly decreased his chances of survival.

A story in the Arlington Heights, Illinois “Daily Herald” hints that Mr. Schultz was aware of a tornado warning and indicates that he did not believe the tornado would strike his village. It indicates that “there was no time for the 85-year-old to hurry back downstairs to the kitchen” where his wife was.

From the the first video frame in which we see the tornado, however, until the frame in which the utility pole begins to fall, nearly two minutes elapse. That should have been plenty of time for everyone in the house to seek shelter. The National Weather Service’s tornado warning provided the Schultzes even more time. It was issued 14 minutes before the tornado hit the village.

“There was no point in getting in the cellar,” the “Daily Herald” story continues, “which was basically a hole barely big enough to hold their furnace.”

Unfortunately, Mrs. Schultz did not survive, becoming one of the storm’s two deaths.

We’ll never know whether the outcome would have been different had Schultz and his wife gone to the safest place that their house afforded as soon as the NWS first issued the tornado warning. If there was no room for them in the furnace cellar, that might have meant going to the most interior room on the first floor, as experts routinely advise.

Sometimes people die, even when they follow expert tornado survival advice. But the sensible thing to do is to put the odds in your favor. When a tornado warning includes your home, take shelter as best you can.

Don’t gamble with your life by following follow Schultz’ example. Give yourself the best possible chance of survival.

SKYWARN

Unilateral tornado siren activation requires notification

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“At the very least, any time a local public safety agency activates tornado sirens on its own (e.g. without an NWS warning), that agency should immediately notify the NWS that it has done so, and why. Why? Because without that notification, nobody who depends on NOAA weather radio or broadcast media for their warnings will know what’s going on!”

That’s an opinion I put forth on this blog in an August 8, 2013 post.

This weekend, I came across two bits of information to support that assertion.

On my way to the 2016 Great Lakes Meteorology Conference (GLMC), I listened to the most recent episode of the Carolina Weather Group webcast (see below). At about 23 minutes in, I heard Perry Boxx, news director of South Bend, Indiana’s Fox TV affiliate, relay a viewer’s story of what happened during an Indiana statewide tornado warning test. Boxx said that after the listeners heard outdoor warning sirens, they turned on their television to find out what was going on. The first two stations to which they tuned provided no information, but the Fox station was running a “crawl” that explained a test was underway.

During the GLMC, emergency planner Rob Dale of a county emergency management agency in Michigan mentioned that the International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) had published best practices for outdoor warning sirens. Among those best practices: When local jurisdictions activate sirens in the absence of a National Weather Service warning, the local officials should “Immediately notify the National Weather Service and local media!” (exclamation point included in the quoted document).

Dale chaired the IAEM committee that drafted the best practices document.  I’ve invited him to write a guest post for this blog on the topic.

By the way, during a question-and-answer session, Dale said that outdoor warning sirens are irrelevant in urban areas, but the “public will never let them die.” It would appear that Dale agrees with my 2014 assertion that the outdated technology is ingrained in our culture.

SKYWARN

Some highlights of the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar

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The DuPage County (Illinois) Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management hosts an annual severe weather seminar in Chicago’s western suburbs to provide advanced training to SKYWARN storm spotters. This year’s 25th-annual event was March 12 at Wheaton College and was attended by approximately 500 people. Here are a few tidbits that I took from the seminar.

Spotters continue to be essential

“A dead spotter does no good for anybody,” said National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center lead forecaster Roger Edwards. He reassured spotters that they continue to be important, even in this high-tech age, but that it’s better to miss seeing something than to risk getting hurt.

Edwards suggested that spotters plan spotting locations in advance, so they’ll know where to go for the best safety as well as the best views. He also provided a list of questions spotters should ask themselves on a severe weather day, such as what types of storms to expect, how to expect them to move, etc.

A slide from a presentation SPC lead forecaster Roger Edwards provided during the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar
A slide from a presentation SPC lead forecaster Roger Edwards provided during the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar

Edwards instructed spotters that if they can hear a tornado, it’s too close and they should be in shelter. He also pointed out that even the inflow from a big tornado can damage or roll a vehicle.

Spotters can help protect others by sharing preparedness info

Warning coordination meteorologist Mike Bardou of the Chicago NWS office spoke about severe weather preparedness. He described a preparedness framework based on four verbs: Plan, Practice, Monitor and Act.

A slide from a presentation that NWS meteorologist Mike Bardou provided at the 2016 DuPage County Severe Weather Seminar: Plan, Practice, Monitor, Act
A slide from a presentation that NWS meteorologist Mike Bardou provided at the 2016 DuPage County Severe Weather Seminar: Plan, Practice, Monitor, Act.

He encouraged spotters to spread the word and help others prepare, especially employers, fellow employees, families, neighbors and friends. As I have written in this blog, it’s often the case that such people don’t know anyone else who knows as much about weather as do spotters. If spotters are passionate enough about weather safety to spend hours watching storms, they should be equally motivated to help others learn how to protect themselves from severe weather. That, in fact, is one of the main reasons I created this blog.

Busy interstate highways are a major concern

During a presentation on storm structure, NWS Chicago meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss spoke on the danger of getting trapped by a tornado on a busy interstate highway. Imagine what any of Chicagoland’s busy interstates would be like if a tornado hit it during the afternoon rush hour! Deubelbeiss said many people have no idea what to do in that situation. He reminded the audience that crouching under an overpass is the worst thing to do, because the Venturi effect increases the speed of the wind as it blows through. This often leaves no option but to get as low as possible in a ditch while remaining mindful of the possibility of a flash flood during a high-precipitation storm.

Deubelbeiss encouraged spotters to always call in reports, even if the NWS has already issued warnings for the area. The NWS might have no other way to know about the tornado or other phenomena spotters see.

A slide from a presentation that NWS meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss provided during the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar depicting the
A slide from a presentation that NWS meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss provided during the 2016 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar depicting the “right-hand” rule for spotting supercell thunderstorms.

And when spotting typical supercells, Deubelbeiss reminded spotters that they should follow the “right-hand rule”; positioning themselves with the storm’s heavy rain and hail to their right and updraft to the left.

Time-lapse storm photography aids education

College of DuPage meteorology professor Victor Gensini demonstrated how time-lapse photography of storms facilitates identifying features. Here’s an example:

Gensini uses a digital SLR but he said that even a smartphone on a cheap tripod can suffice.

Gensini also spoke about his recently published research on forecasting tornado activity weeks in advance. A recent interview of Gensini in “Forbes” provides a good explanation.

SKYWARN

Impressive line-up for 36th annual Skilling Fermilab severe weather seminar

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Live stream of April 2 event available online

For 35 years, broadcast meteorologist Tom Skilling of Chicago television station WGN has hosted an annual severe weather educational event in an auditorium on the campus of Fermilab, a U.S. Department of Energy particle physics laboratory in the Chicago suburb of Batavia.

The event is very popular among weather geeks and the members of the general public. I’ve heard many people talk about it, but have never attended, because four hours seems a long drive for a half-day event.

This year, however, WGN will stream the entire event live on the Web. And the speaker line-up is impressive:

  • Louis Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service
  • Russell Schneider, Director of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma
  • Chris Strager, Central Region Director, National Weather Service
  • Donald J. Wuebbles, Harry E. Preble Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Illinois
  • Doug Sisterson & Dr. Seth Darling of Argonne National Laboratory, authors of the book “How to Change Minds on our Changing Climate”
  • Ed Fenelon, Meteorologist in Charge-National Weather Service-Chicago
  • Mike Bardou, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, NWS-Chicago
  • Brian Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist-National Weather Service Forecast Office-Valley, NE
  • Sean Lewis, WGN-TV anchor/reporter
  • Kimberly A. Smith, Director Emergency Preparedness, Commonwealth Edison

This year’s event is Saturday, April 2, from noon to 4:30 p.m. CDT. A free ticket is required and according to the event website, the tickets are gone, except for some that the station held back for promotional purposes.

But the station says it will stream the entire event live on WGNtv.com. You can also see tweets from the seminar with the hash tag #SkillingFermi.

If you can’t watch the seminar live, check the TV station’s website afterward. In past years, it has posted video segments from the event.

SKYWARN

Keeping yourself safe from dangerous weather at outdoor events

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As a follow-up to my earlier video about steps outdoor events and venues must take to protect participants and spectators, here’s a short video about steps individuals can take to protect themselves from dangerous weather, featuring warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis of the northern Indiana National Weather Service Office.

 

SKYWARN

Know anyone who’s still confused by watch vs. warning?

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Wizard of Oz witch tornado watch warning meme
Meme creator unknown

The U.S. National Weather Service has been issuing tornado and severe thunderstorm watches and warnings since 1965. More than 50 years later, however, people still fail to fully understand the difference between a watch and a warning. You probably know some of them, I certainly do.

As my contribution to the second day of Indiana’s Severe Weather Preparedness Week 2016, I’ve written this blog to share with your friends and family members who remain confused.

A watch is essentially a forecast

Map showing tornado watch for a large part of Indiana and Michigan for 11:20 a.m. to 8 p.m. Nov. 17, 2013.
Map showing tornado watch for a large part of Indiana and Michigan for 11:20 a.m. to 8 p.m. Nov. 17, 2013.

In fact, before 1965, the NWS called what we now know as “tornado watches” “tornado forecasts.” A tornado watch indicates the possibility of tornadoes forming, just as a rain forecast indicates the probability of rain. Similarly, a severe thunderstorm watch indicates the possibility of severe thunderstorms forming. A watch does not mean these things are already happening, it means they could happen.

Like a forecast, a watch covers a period of many hours and usually covers a large area of at least several counties, if not several states. We should watch for possible dangerous weather in the near future.

A warning is an indication of immediate danger

Polygon indicating the area covered by a tornado warning for the Kokomo, Indiana area Nov. 17, 2013.
Polygon indicating the area covered by a tornado warning for the Kokomo, Indiana area from 3:17 p.m. to 3:45 p.m. Nov. 17, 2013. Click the image to see a larger version.

It’s a call to take shelter now, because the tornado or severe thunderstorm is already happening. Depending on where you are, you might only have couple of minutes to protect yourself and your family. Or, you might have 10 or 15 minutes, if you’re at the far edge of the “warning polygon.” If you want to survive a tornado or a severe thunderstorm, don’t waste time seeking more information. When a warning comes out, take shelter immediately.

Because dangerous weather has already formed and is on its way, a warning usually covers a period of less than an hour and a small area that’s sometimes smaller than a county. The time to watch is over. It’s now time to heed the warning and take shelter.

Want even more lead time?

If you’re really interested in weather, or want to know even earlier whether severe weather is possible, there are two other NWS products to check out.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) usually issues a “mesoscale discussion” before it issues a watch. This product lets you know that the SPC is thinking about (or planning to) issue a watch, the geographical area of concern and the reasons. Some of the text of a mesoscale discussion can get pretty technical, but anyone can figure out from this product whether a watch is likely to be issued. If any mesoscale discussions are in effect, you can find them on the SPC website.

For even more lead time, the SPC issues “convective outlooks” that indicate the amount of risk of severe weather as much as eight days in advance. You can also find these products on the SPC website.

SKYWARN

Video blog: Preventing event weather injuries & deaths

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Note: Links to resources appear at the bottom of this page.

In 2011, straight-line winds of a severe thunderstorm blew down the temporary, steel roof over a concert stage at the Indiana State Fair. Seven people died. Four years later, two people died in New Hampshire, after thunderstorm winds blew down a circus tent.

The fact that people were still dying in weather-related incidents at public events four years after the State Fair tragedy prompted me to produce my first video blog, above.

At least two and a half hours before both the Indianapolis and New Hampshire storms, the National Weather Service issued severe thunderstorm watches. The agency issued specific warnings at least 10 minutes before each storm.

According to a report by the Indianapolis Star, no one advised the State Fair audience to seek shelter before the stage structure collapsed. At the time this story was produced, it was unclear from news reports whether circus employees even knew about the New Hampshire storm warning, or whether they instructed their audience to seek shelter.

Tragedies like these show how important it is for organizers of outdoor events to have effective plans, policies and procedures for severe weather.

“Every plan should have something in there that says, ‘We get information from one location, we’re able to process that in a timely manner, and move people,'” said Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service.

“So when we work with them, we try to give them redundant sources of information,” Lewis continued. “Use our website. Use the different applications that are available on smartphones. Use NOAA weather radio, get the information and act quickly. The plan should look at how long will it take to you to move people from where they generally congregate to places of shelter, places of safety. Where are the gonna go and how long is it going to take to get there.”

In Fort Wayne, Indiana, the minor-league TinCaps baseball team routinely draws crowds of eight thousand or more.

“We do have a severe weather plan, very detailed,” said Brian Schackow, chief financial officer, Fort Wayne Tincaps. “And I think the best way to describe it is it just outlines the way we’re gonna communicate with people in the event of severe weather.”

“We have slides, we have weather announcements that our PA announcer will make, and it outlines how to handle that. Everything from just being in a thunderstorm warning — or a watch, I should say — all the way up to a tornado warning, which is the case right now where we would evacuate the ballpark,” Schackow continued.

A number of resources are available to event and venue professionals. For example, a trade organization called The Event Safety Alliance hosted a Severe Weather Summit in March of 2016. There, experts discussed all types of weather issues and how to develop plans.

Other resources include local emergency managers and public safety officials as well as local National Weather Service offices.

Event organizers and venue owners can help prevent future injuries and deaths by using such resources to adequately prepare for dangerous weather.

Some resources

SKYWARN

NWS northern Indiana issues severe weather preparedness week news release

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National Weather Service Press Release
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 14, 2016

INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK, MARCH 20-26

******** STATEWIDE TORNADO DRILLS MARCH 22nd ********

Syracuse, IN – So far, 2016 severe weather does not compare with the tragic March 2012 tornadoes to strike southern Indiana.  Is that a sign for fewer tornadoes this year? “Indiana has tornadoes every year,” said Michael Lewis, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana.  “But events like the deadly tornado of March 2012 point to the importance of being ready and responsive in the face of increasing hazardous weather events. Being resilient is part of the vision of the National Weather Service (NWS) as we grow toward becoming a Weather Ready Nation,” added Lewis.

The National Weather Service, in cooperation with the Indiana State Department of Homeland Security, Indiana State Police, Indiana Department of Education, the Indiana Broadcasters Association, the American Red Cross, and the amateur radio community, will conduct a Severe Weather Preparedness campaign March 20-26, 2016.

The 38th annual statewide test tornado drills will be conducted on Tuesday March 22 at 10:15 am and 7:35 pm EDT.  Wednesday March 23 is the make-up drill day if severe weather postpones Tuesday’s drill.   The drill will be initiated by TEST Tornado Warnings issued by NWS offices serving Indiana, triggering programmed electronic devices and activation of many outdoor warning sirens.

“Every family, every school, and every business should take time now to review or create a weather safety action plan,” said John Erickson, Public Information Officer of the Indiana Department of Homeland Security. “Having and practicing a plan increases your chances of surviving the storm,” added Erickson.

For further information, you may refer to: www.weather.gov/ind also:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/  #SpringSafety

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