Category Archives: SKYWARN

WANE-TV’s Shoup: Despite what you hear elsewhere, it’s not the Polar Vortex

Shoup

Yep, its certainly unseasonably cool today. And you’ll probably here some folks attribute the cool weather to the Polar Vortex. As WANE TV’s Greg Shoup explains in his blog, we should take any such comments, even from “meteorologists,” with a grain of salt:

This typical July-like pattern will over the course of a few days be replaced by a ‘lobe’ from that ‘vortex’ or circulation that is referred to as the Polar Vortex. This concept is often misunderstood, especially in the national media as it is referred to simply as The Polar Vortex. This is scientifically inaccurate as the vortex or circulation itself moves very little. It has a semi permanent position near the Arctic Circle. That location does not vary and the vortex is never moving into a different location. However, sometimes we see a piece, chunk or scientifically called a ‘lobe’ break off this vortex and make its way to our region. This is not a common feature during the summer months so it is certainly very unusual.

via Return flow back in the forecast | WANE.com Blogs.

NWS tweet: Greatest concern at 3 p.m. west and south of Ft. Wayne

NWS Tweet: Severe storms most likely south of U.S. 30

NWS tweet: Storms could reach Ft. Wayne by early eve.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417

Thunderstorm watch 417 county mapIn IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, this watch includes Whitely and Huntington County until 7 p.m. EDT. Follow the link below for details.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417.

Midday outlook update: Continued slight risk in Indiana, Ohio

Almost all of Indiana and all but northeastern Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued (early) at 10:46 a.m. EDT.

The primary threat remains damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger.

NWS: Severe weather in Ft. Wayne most likely in late afternoon, evening

8 a.m. EDT weather map
A cold/stationary front can be seen draping across the Midwest in this weather map issued at 8 a.m. EDT by the National Weather Service. That front is forecast to move across Indiana this afternoon and evening, possibly triggering severe storms along and ahead of itself.

There’s still some uncertainty about severe weather in northeastern Indiana today, but the best chances for severe storms across the Fort Wayne area are between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, according to a meteorologist at the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS)  office.

As of 9 a.m. EDT, almost all of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather, according to a convective outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Storms could form along and ahead of a sharp cold front that is forecast to move through the area later today.

The SPC will update its outlook for the day by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Most of Indiana, Ohio have slight risk of severe weather today

9 a.m. EDT Day 1 Convective Outlook Map
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Tues.). Green: Thunderstorms not expected to be severe.

Nearly the entire state of Indiana and almost all of Ohio — including all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two — has a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:53 a.m. EDT.

This slight risk area represents a significant change from earlier outlooks,  greatly broadening the slight risk area.

By far, the greatest concern is damaging straight-line thunderstorm wind of 58 mph or greater. Indiana and Ohio have a 15 percent probability of such winds occurring within 25 miles of a point (see an explanation of outlook probability figures). The tornado and hail probabilities during the period are less than two percent and five percent, respectively.

Meteorologists expect any severe storms in the area to develop this afternoon and SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” issued by the northern Indiana NWS office at 4:45 a.m.

Anyone planning outdoor activities today should be sure to have a way to remain aware of any watches or warnings that the NWS might issue today.

As always, outlooks and forecasts are subject to change. The SPC will next update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Weather officials: Radar technology can’t replace storm spotters | Wichita Eagle

A story in the “Wichita Eagle” contradicts part of the Eric Holthaus “Slate” story about which I wrote earlier.

Holthaus writes:

A recent nationwide upgrade to the National Weather Service’s Doppler radar network has probably rendered storm chasers obsolete anyway. The new technology, called “dual polarization,” can help meteorologists confirm that a tornado is indeed causing damage. NOAA calls the upgrade “as good if not better than a spotter report of a tornado.”

On the other hand, “Eagle” reporter Stan Finger writes:

Storm spotters and well-educated chasers have an important role even before a tornado develops, officials say.

“The benefit of the spotter is not just to report the tornado,” said Bill Bunting, chief of the operations branch at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. “The benefit is also to accurately describe the precursor conditions.”

via Weather officials: Radar technology can’t replace storm spotters | Wichita Eagle.

Mesoscale Discussion: Watch possible in southern Indiana, southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri

Mesoscale Discussion 1354 mapThe National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued “Mesoscale Discussion” number 1354 that indicates a 40 percent probability of a watch this afternoon.