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Weather

Here’s why real meteorologists don’t yet know how bad the coming winter storm will be

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A winter storm is coming to Indiana and will likely impact travel Thursday night and Friday, December 22 and 23.

Some areas could get a lot of snow. Some could get mostly rain.

As of this morning, the expert meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Northern Indiana Office can’t forecast where the heaviest snow will fall.

The biggest reason is that meteorological science isn’t capable yet of forecasting the exact track of a low pressure system four days in advance.

I’m not a meteorologist, but I’ve spent enough time collaborating with meteorologists to develop a fair understanding of their work. So, I’ll try to explain here what I know about the coming storm, based on what the pros have published.

First, it helps to know how low pressure systems affect winter weather. Typically, the heaviest snow falls to the north and northwest of a low pressure system. Areas to the east and northeast usually get mostly rain. Areas to the southeast can get clear skies with little or no precipitation.

The path a low pressure system takes therefore has a major impact on where the biggest winter storm impacts will occur.

The main way meteorologists predict a system’s path is by monitoring the output of special computer programs known as numerical weather prediction models. These programs run on supercomputers, because they ingest massive amounts of weather observation data and apply complex equations in their attempts to create reliable, mathematical simulations of the atmosphere. Several such programs exist, all written differently. It’s not unusual for the various models to produce different solutions, which typically come out every 12 hours.

Meteorologist Megan Dodson at the Northern Indiana NWS office wrote in an Area Forecast Discussion this morning that they’re watching the outputs of at least four different models. They’re paying attention to how much consensus exists between the solutions of the various models and how consistent each model’s output is with previous output from the same model.

As of this morning’s forecast discussion, these models indicated that the low pressure system would move from the southwest to the northeast and that the path it follows would be farther west than previous model runs indicated. The image below, published by the Indianapolis NWS office, shows three possible paths for the system. One model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), is an outlier, forecasting the most westward path. If it’s right, and the center of the low stays west of Indiana, the Hoosier state won’t get much snow. Other models forecast more easterly paths.

Graphic published by NWS Indianaolis showing possible tracks of a low pressure system associated with a forecast winter storm

All the models could still be wrong!

Numerical weather prediction is not perfect, but the closer the low pressure system gets to Indiana, the more the models will align and the better the forecasts will get.

As I write this, the system is still over the Pacific Ocean, so it should be understandable that it’s too early for the models to accurately predict how it will track over the Midwest.

For now, it’s important to understand that a winter storm will very likely occur somewhere, but as much as you’d like to know exactly where the most snow will fall (and where the most travel impacts will be), it’s just too early to know.

That said, because it’s also too early to rule out big impacts in any part of northern Indiana, it’s wise to prepare for such impacts. For example, you might shop for Christmas dinner ingredients a day earlier than you originally planned, just in case.

It’s also important to realize that some people who are not meteorologists post official-looking but unscientific forecasts on social media. Often, they choose the single model output that looks the most dramatic (even though it’s an outlier), rather than create legitimate forecasts based on a full understanding of model limitations and model consensus. Often, the main goal of such posts is to create bigger audiences for advertisements. Keep that in mind the next time you see a dramatic snow forecast for any time that’s more than a few days away.

SKYWARN, Weather

NWS Northern Indiana conducts partner webinar on coming winter storm

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The Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (IWX) conducted a webinar for its partners at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday, January 31, to discuss a winter storm forecasted to hit its area in the following days. Here is a summary of the information shared during the initial briefing and subsequent question-and-answer session.

Update: IWX later published on YouTube a recording of the briefing given during the webinar described here.

IWX meteorologist expected to upgrade the existing winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for at least part of the IWX forecast area by 3:30 p.m. ET Jan. 31. Update: IWX issued a winter storm warning for some of its counties at 3:21 p.m. ET. Visit the IWX web page for details.

IWX plans to issue a new multimedia briefing via YouTube Wednesday morning and conduct a second partner webinar Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast timeline of expected winter storm weather

Forecasters expect the event to begin with a light wintery mix in South Bend Tuesday evening, with rain elsewhere, eventually changing to heavy snow in all areas, as indicated by the timeline graphic above.

Forecaster confidence on winter storm timing is high. Uncertainty is in the transition from rain/sleet/freezing rain to heavy snow, especially along and south of U.S. 24.

Snow accumulation forecast for first round of snow Tuesday night through Wednesday.

IWX shared the graphic above regarding snowfall total for the first of two rounds of snowfall and cautioned partners that the forecast accumulation numbers are very likely to change between now and the beginning of the storm.

Probabilities of exceeding snowfall thresholds.

IWX shared the graphic above regarding probabilities of heavy snowfall and commented that the storm could be on the order of a one-in-five-year or one-in-ten-year event.

Winds are not forecasted to be significant during this first round of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. That snow will be fairliy wet and heavy and therefore unlikely to blow and drift.

High winds, blowing and drifting snow are likely Wednesday night through Thursday.

IWX forecasts a lighter, drier snow Wednesday night through Thursday. Combined with wind gusts forecasted to reach as high as 35 mph, significant blowing and drifing of snow is forecast, especially on east-west roads in rural and open areas. Whiteout conditions are possible. Roads could drift back over shortly after snow plows pass through on Thursday.

Wind chills are forecasted to be below zero by Thursday night, causing a potential hazard for any motorists stranded in snow.

IWX forecasts ice accumulation to be brief in most areas, and not a great impact. Ice amounts will be less significant than heavy snow.

SKYWARN

Believe it or not, some snowstorm forecasts on Facebook are bogus!

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Snowfall forecast map from the European numerical weather prediction model run on Dec. 16, 2013 for the forecast period Dec. 22-23. What actually happened Dec. 22 and 23 wasn't even close to this!
Widely shared snowfall forecast map from the European numerical weather prediction model run on Dec. 16, 2013 for the forecast period Dec. 22-23. What actually happened Dec. 22 and 23 wasn’t even close to this!

Winter weather is just around the corner in Indiana, which means so are authentic-looking but bogus long-range snowstorm forecasts on social media.

It won’t be long before we see claims that a storm a week or more away will bring huge snow accumulations. Many will have official-looking forecast maps, like the one above (which turned out to be wrong, by the way).

But these posts won’t be the work of professional meteorologists. Many will be the creations of school kids, passing themselves off as weather experts.

This is Winter Weather Preparedness Week in Indiana, so it seems like a good time to prepare readers for the ominous-looking but unreliable snow forecasts they’ll soon see.

To understand what amateur weather enthusiasts put on social media, it helps to know something about the computer programs that professional meteorologists use to guide their forecasts. These programs are called numerical weather prediction models. They simulate Earth’s atmosphere by describing it in a complex series of very complicated mathematical formulas.

The programs built on these formulas run several times a day on supercomputers around the world. Much of the output of these programs is available on the Web, in both numeric and graphical form.

The output of computerized atmosphere models is inherently inaccurate for several reasons, including:

  1. It’s not yet possible to completely describe our chaotic atmosphere in mathematical equations and
  2. The programs don’t have access to enough data about what our atmosphere is doing at the time they run (e.g. what the temperature, wind speed and wind direction are 10,000 feet over any given part of the planet).

Nonetheless, these programs kick out predictions of what the weather might be at any location at any time, as far in the future as 16 days, despite that fact that no computer or human can reliably forecast the weather that far in advance.

Now, imagine a young weather enthusiast who craves attention and loves snowstorms (because they get him out of school). When he sees an indication of heavy accumulations in the output of a single computer model, he might paste that model’s map into a Facebook post in which he writes a dire forecast of impending doom. Such an amateur forecaster might not be aware of (or care about) the model limitations described above. But she’ll love all the “likes” and shares her post receives!

So how do I know what to believe? First, I’m automatically suspicious of any social media post that forecasts specific snowfall amounts more than a couple days in advance. Second, I ignore any forecast that doesn’t come directly from professional sources I trust, such as:

  • The National Weather Service.
  • Local, degreed broadcast meteorologists.
  • Certain commercial weather forecasting companies.

If that ominous snowstorm forecast didn’t come from one of the above, I won’t share it on social media. I hope you’ll join me in that practice.

SKYWARN

Winter outlook for Indiana: Drier, warmer than normal

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2015-2016 U.S. Winter Outlook precipitation map
NOAA image

The coming winter will likely be drier and warmer than normal in Indiana, according to the winter outlook that the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued yesterday.

2015-2016 U.S. winter outlook temperature map
NOAA image

This year’s El Niño (annual warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru) is among the strongest on record. Forecasters expect it to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” CPC deputy director Mike Halpert said in a news release. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”

The seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms might hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strengths and tracks of winter storms, which forecasters can generally not predict more than a week in advance.