Tag Archives: severe weather

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather today

1300Z Day 1 convective outlook map

Update: Severe potential less clear. Read more.

SKYWARN storm spotters in northeastern Indiana, northern Ohio and southeastern lower Michigan might need to activate late this morning and/or this afternoon, due to a slight risk of clusters of severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds and large hail. Among other areas, the slight risk area includes the entire eastern half of the area served by the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office (IMO SKYWARN quadrants one and two). In addition to severe wind and hail, locally heavy rain is possible.

Within the slight risk area, there is a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher and hail of one inch diameter or larger within 25 miles of a point and a two percent probability of a tornado, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:57 a.m. EDT. Read more about outlook probabilities.

In addition, SPC issued a mesoscale discussion at 8:52 a.m. EDT in which forecasters indicated that they would very likely issue a watch for northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio shortly.

Map from mesoscale discussion 1654

Now for some meteorology: A cold front will move east-southeastward into the area today. Meanwhile, forecasters expect a corridor of moderate to strong atmospheric instability to form this afternoon across portions of Illinois, Indiana, lower Michigan and Ohio ahead of the front. These factors could combine with strong changes in wind speed with altitude to allow thunderstorms to develop near the cold front, with isolated severe wind and/or hail. The number and severity of storms depend somewhat on the amount of sunshine we get this morning. Heavy cloud cover would limit the atmospheric destabilization that severe storms require. Read more in an Area Forecast Discussion from the northern Indiana NWS office.

As always make sure you’ll be aware of any watches or warnings that NWS might issue today and remember, the Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio transmitter remains weak, so depending on your location, you might need another way to get watches and warnings.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather tomorrow (Wednesday)

Map from 0600Z day 2 convective outlook

Update: The 1:20 p.m. EDT update to the Day 2 Convective Outlook looks pretty much the same as this morning’s version. Our next look at tomorrow’s severe weather risk comes at about 2 a.m. tomorrow, when the first Day 1 Convective Outlook of the day comes out.

A slight risk of severe weather exists throughout much of Indiana and Ohio between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, August 7 and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 8, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2 a.m. EDT today. The slight risk area includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.

The outlook indicates a 15 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area. The greatest risks are straight-line winds and possibly some hail. Read more about outlook probabilities.

The storms are most likely in the afternoon tomorrow, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the norther Indiana NWS office issued at 5:11 a.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed tomorrow afternoon.

We get our next look at tomorrow’s weather situation when the SPC issues an updated Day 2 Convective Outlook at approximately 1:30 p.m. EDT today.

SKYWARN

Newspaper article examines lack of Peru tornado warning

The National Weather Service (NWS) never issued a tornado warning for Peru July 10, where a brief EF-1 tornado did significant structural damage. In a recent article in the Kokomo Tribune, NWS warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis explains the two reasons the Northern Indiana office didn’t issue a tornado warning:

First, he said, weather radars didn’t clearly indicate there was tornado activity in the area. Second, there were no reliable reports of a tornado from trained spotters on the ground.

Lewis reminded Tribune readers, however, that the NWS had issued a severe thunderstorm warning and that people should not ignore such warnings.

“… a severe thunderstorm warning issued, which means there was the potential for life-threatening conditions,” he said. “You don’t have to have a tornado to get tornado-like damage. High winds can be just as bad.”

Tribune reporter Carson Gerber did a pretty good job on the story. Check it out.

SKYWARN
NWS Infographic.

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office published the infographic above along with the information below:

Hot and muggy conditions will remain this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to spark the development of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the area later this evening, most likely after 8 pm EDT. There remains a slight risk for a few of these storms to be strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threat. This threat will be highly conditional depending on whether or not the storms can organize before instability is lost as the sun sets. Cooler, less humid air will move in behind the front with highs in the 80s for the weekend. For the latest advisory and forecast information see our website at www.weather.gov/iwx.

SKYWARN

IWX: Severe weather looking less likely

The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be between 8 p.m. EDT and midnight across the northern part of the forecast area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office (e.g. north of the Indiana and Ohio toll roads). That’s according to an Area Forecast Discussion that the office issued at 4:29 p.m.

Atmospheric conditions that support storm development are on their way, especially the upward forcing provided by a cold front and a strong change in wind speeds with altitude. But by the time those conditions get to the office’s forecast area, the atmosphere will have become more stable, as it usually does as temperatures fall in the evening. If instability is insufficient by the time the cold front arrives, we might get rain but no severe storms. If severe storms do form, the main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

SKYWARN

Local NWS office writes Facebook update on storm possibilities

NWS logo

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office posted the following message on its Facebook page at 4:14 p.m. EDT:

“We’re in “wait and see” mode here at the office this afternoon. The atmosphere is unstable enough to support thunderstorms but not much has developed so far. The main cold front is still draped back in western WI to central Iowa. We will be watching that closely as it moves southeast into the area later this evening. If storms do fire along the cold front, there is a possibility that some could be strong to severe with damaging winds as the main threat. We will continue to monitor the situation as time goes on and will keep you posted!”

SKYWARN

Severe risk remains same in afternoon outlook

Categorical map from afternoon Day 1 Convective Outlook

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook at 3:51 p.m. EDT but it contains no changes from the midday version of the outlook. Northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and lower Michigan remain at slight risk of severe weather between 4 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

SKYWARN

Slight changes to severe outlook at midday

Probability maps from 12:30 p.m. Day 1 Convective Outlook
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Top map: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. Middle map: Probability of one inch diameter or larger hail. Bottom map: Probability of a tornado. Learn more about probability numbers.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) made slight changes to the geography of severe weather risk areas in the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook it issued at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

A slight risk of severe weather continues for northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and most of lower Michigan between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Damaging straight-line winds and hail remain the primary threats, with a 15 percent probability of each. The southern edge of the risk area, however, moved slightly north. As as result, the following counties covered by the northern Indiana NWS office are now outside the risk area: Grant, Blackford, Jay, southern Adams, southern Wells and southern Allen (Ohio).

Other changes include the reduction of the damaging wind probability for southern Michigan from 30 percent to 15 percent and the removal of Indiana and Ohio from the two percent risk of tornado.

Apart from the changes above, the situation remains pretty much the same as described in my earlier blog post.

SKYWARN

Fort Wayne weather radio transmiter crippled for foreseeable future

View of NOAA Weather Radio transmitting antenna
(NWS Northern Indiana photo)

This morning, the northern Indiana National Weather Service office put out the public information statement below. For more on exactly what the problem is at the Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio transmitter site, see my previous blog post on the topic (complete with cool pictures!).

With severe weather possible today and tonight, now would be a good time to check your weather radio to see if you can hear the broadcast. If you’re not close to northwestern Fort Wayne, there’s a very good chance you can’t hear it. If you can’t hear it now, your radio will probably not alert you to any watches or warnings that might come out. In that case, you’ll need an alternative way to get those alerts, for example:

  • Install a weather alert app on your smartphone. I’m fond of iMap Weather Radio, even though it’s not free. It’s only $9.99 and is available in iOS and Android versions. I receive no financial gain from sales of this app.
  • Sign up for a text message (SMS) alert service. These require a cell phone with text messaging service but it need not be a smartphone. Some of which I know include:
  • Keep a local television or radio station playing within earshot.
  • Monitor a local ham radio spotter frequency (can be tuned in on any standard police scanner). The frequency for Fort Wayne is 146.88 MHz (146.76 MHz alternate).

Got other suggestions or questions? Use the comment link below. 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 /1002 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013/

...FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST TO REMAIN ON LOW POWER 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

THE FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST...WXJ-58 AT 162.550 
MHZ...WILL CONTINUE TO BROADCAST AT LOW POWER FOR THE FORESEEABLE 
FUTURE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE LOW POWER AND DEGRADED 
SIGNAL ISSUES THAT THE TRANSMITTER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE 
PAST FEW WEEKS. HOWEVER...EXACT ARRIVAL TIMES ARE UNKNOWN AND 
INSTALLATION WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED WITH MAINTENANCE CREWS 
DURING A WINDOW OF FAIR WEATHER. 

WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. FURTHER UPDATES 
WILL BE ISSUED AS MORE DETAILS BECOME AVAILABLE.
SKYWARN

Straight-line wind, hail damage possible today & tonight

Wind, hail and tornado probability maps from Day 1 Convective Outlook
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Top map: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. Middle map: Probability of one inch diameter or larger hail. Bottom map: Probability of a tornado. Learn more about probability numbers.

See an update to this post.

The Northern third of Indiana, the northwestern quarter of Ohio, all of lower Michigan and large parts of Illinois and Indiana (see maps at left) have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:45 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, except Blackford and Jay Counties.

In northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, including counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two (again, except Blackford and Jay), there’s a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher or one-inch-diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of any point in the risk area. In the identified parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, there’s a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point. Learn more about these probability numbers.

Thunderstorms are forecast develop in northwestern Indiana during the mid to late afternoon hours today, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at  4:59 a.m. EDT. Those storms should shift southeastward across far northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional storms might develop later tonight, as a cold front gets closer.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight. Because Three Rivers Festival is going on in downtown Fort Wayne, prompt spotter reports of wind damage and hail 10 to 15 miles upwind of downtown Fort Wayne will be particularly important (so there’s time to get warnings to the people downtown).

The SPC will update the Day 1 Convective Outlook at around 12:30 p.m. EDT. As my workload permits, I’ll post updated information on this blog throughout the day.