The Storm Prediction Center issued a new Day One Convective Outlook at 4 p.m. EDT. It shrinks the area of Indiana for which there is a slight risk of severe weather. The slight risk area no longer includes any of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two. In fact, a small part of White County in quadrant three is the only part of the NWS northern Indiana office’s coverage area that still has a slight risk. The risk for the Fort Wayne area was always marginal at best today.
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| Yellow area indicates a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. Thursday, May 9 and 8 a.m. Friday, May 10, based on a Day One Convective Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center at 8:21 a.m. Thursday, May 9. (All times EDT.) |
There is a slight risk of severe in much of northern and central Indiana today, including many of the counties served by the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office and all the Indiana counties of IMO SKYWARN’s quadrant two (Whitley, Allen, Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay). The slight risk area also includes a small part of Van Wert County, Ohio.
According to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:21 a.m. EDT this morning, thunderstorms could begin by this afternoon. The outlook indicates a 15 percent chance of damaging thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of any point and the same chance of hail of one inch diameter or larger.
The outlook forecasts an atmosphere that will be barely unstable enough for severe storms to develop. If any severe storms form, the forecasters believe those storms will weaken by evening.
At 4:28 a.m. EDT today, the northern Indiana NWS office issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook that indicates severe storms are more likely this evening than this afternoon. It reads, “Spotter activation may be needed this evening.”
Keep an eye on the SPC website for any mesoscale discussions that it might issue, as they’ll provide advance notice of thunderstorm watches. Meanwhile, if severe thunderstorms develop, remind your friends and family that they can be more dangerous than tornadoes, as the June, 2012 derecho demonstrated!
In previous articles, I’ve mentioned the National Weather Service’s interest in receiving storm reports via Internet social media channels, such as Twitter and Facebook. From the viewpoint of NWS meteorologists, these channels have significant advantages over ham radio. Chief among these: They don’t require the presence of a licensed ham radio operator at the weather forecast office (WFO). That’s important, because it’s becoming more and more difficult to find volunteer hams to staff the WFO’s station (WX9IWX) during severe weather. Another advantage in meteorologists’ eyes is sheer numbers. Many more people already report weather phenomena to their friends and followers via Twitter and Facebook than there are ham radio-equipped spotters.
An NWS service assessment of the historic June 29, 2012 derecho published in January discussed use of social media. Meteorologists at the Cleveland WFO told the assessment team that it received several reports via Twitter from people in and around its warning area during the event, often before receiving reports from its regular spotters. One of the official recommendations in the service assessment reads:
“NWS should expand the use of social media for reaching the public and receiving observations and damage reports during high-impact events. NWS should consider a virtual volunteer program to support social media operations similar to the SKYWARN program.”
The Northern Indiana WFO has already started monitoring Facebook and Twitter for such reports. What does this mean to spotters who are licensed ham radio operators? If a SKYWARN net is on the air, I recommend sharing your information on the net, even if you also submit it via social media and even if WX9IWX is not on the air. That way, other spotters listening to the net will immediately know what you saw. And even when WX9IWX is on the air, if you’ve taken a photo to go with your report, use Twitter or Facebook to send the report and photo to the WFO and then send your report on the net. Any time you give the net a report you’ve already sent via another means, say so on the air.
How to set up and use Twitter and Facebook accounts is beyond the scope of this article but such information is readily available on the Web. It’s worth noting, however, that in addition to sending tweets via Twitter’s website and via a myriad of smartphone apps, you can also configure Twitter to allow you to send a tweet from any cellular telephone that has text messaging (SMS) capability. In other words, sending a spotter report via Twitter while you’re away from home does not require a smartphone or any other kind of mobile Internet access.
To send a spotter report via Twitter, generate a tweet that includes your report and the “hash tag” #NWSIWX. The WFO and others constantly monitor Twitter for tweets that contain that hash tag. If there’s room in the 140-character tweet, indicate that you’re a trained spotter. Whenever possible, take a photo and include a link in your tweet (see the Web for instructions on how to do this). Note: If you monitor Twitter, you will see some people sending reports with @NWSIWX instead of #NWSIWX. You’ll also see the WFO reply to such tweets. Nonetheless, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Michael Lewis said the WFO prefers that spotters use the #NWSIWX hash tag in their reports. Also, if you need to send reports from a county that’s not in the coverage area of the Northern Indiana WFO, contact the appropriate WFO to learn what hash tag it uses and/or use that WFO’s Facebook page.
To send a report via Facebook, log into your Facebook account and go to the National Weather Service Northern Indiana Facebook page. Click on “Write Post” and enter your report. Indicate they you’re a trained spotter and as with tweets, include a photo if possible.
Whether you use Twitter or Facebook, meteorologists at the WFO will notice your report almost immediately. So will broadcasters, emergency managers, other spotters and members of the general public.
In fact, hams who are SKYWARN spotters can monitor these channels to improve their own situational awareness. More on that in a future article.
The northern Indiana office of the NWS just pulled the trigger on a flood warning. The text includes:
NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS…INCLUDING SPY RUN IN THE FORT WAYNE METRO AREA…WILL LIKELY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO WATER FLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD…AND DEEP PONDED WATER IN POORLY DRAINED SECTIONS.
WANE TV meteorologist Jonathan Conder gives a good answer in his blog. Check it out.
The northern Indiana NWS office sent a tweet this evening asking people to report how much rain they’ve had. They’re asking people to be sure to include the amount, location, and the approximate time period. They’ll be looking for these reports on Twitter with the hash tag #nwsiwx.You can also post reports on the office’s Facebook page.
Earlier this evening, the NWS issued an urban and small stream flood advisory for several northeastern Indiana counties, including Allen County.
There’s also a flood watch in effect because “periods of heavy rainfall can be expected tonight. This heavy rainfall combined with already saturated soils and elevated river levels will likely lead to significant river flooding through the upcoming weekend.”
The tornado watch for areas south and southwest of Fort Wayne was canceled early. At the time of this writing, no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches were in effect anywhere in Indiana.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a new convective outlook at 3:36 p.m. It removes the moderate risk of severe weather that was present in earlier convective outlooks. About three fourths of Indiana, however, continues to have a slight risk of severe weather, including Allen County, Indiana.
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info) |
As you can see in the map above, the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds is now no greater than 30 percent and that’s for areas well south and southwest of the Fort Wayne area. There remains a slight (5%) risk of a tornado in parts of Indiana from Fort Wayne to the south and southwest.
So what happened? The meteorologist’s discussion indicates that the line of thunderstorms moved east faster than expected, causing the storms to arrive in our area before the sun had heated the atmosphere enough to create the instability required for severe weather. With all the rain and cloud cover we have now, temperatures for the rest of the day will be too low for severe weather to develop.
At about 2 p.m., some thunderstorms came through Fort Wayne. They were not severe. At 2:50, the National Weather Service canceled the tornado watch for Allen County and other northeastern Indiana counties.
So, was that it? Are we out of the figurative woods for severe weather today? Not necessarily.
We’ll know more at 4 p.m. EDT when the SPC issues a new convective outlook. But the 2 p.m. storms arrived ahead of the main cold front and as of now, there’s still a chance of severe weather developing later this afternoon.
So for now, I’m remaining vigilant. If I have time, I’ll post again after the 4 p.m. convective outlook comes out.
