Tag Archives: severe weather

SKYWARN, Weather

Unusually high tornado probability in northeastern Indiana May 7

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A map of Indiana showing tornado probabilities in different areas.
Click the image for a higher-resolution view.

A large part of northeastern Indiana has a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk of severe weather Tuesday, May 7, 2024, with tornados, damaging straight-line wind and large hail all possible, according to an outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:30 p.m. today, May 6.

The level 3 risk is largely due to a doubling of the probability of a tornado in that area, versus the SPC’s earlier outlook.

On its tornado probability map (above), the outlook uses yellow shading to indicate a 10% probability that a tornado will occur within 25 miles of any point during the 24 hours beginning at 8 a.m. ET May 7. In our experience, a 10% probability for this area is quite unusual.

In that area, the normal probability of a tornado on any May 7 is only 0.40%, according to historical data analyzed by the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. A 10% probability is therefore 25 times normal.

A map of Indiana showing an area that has a 10% or greater probability of a significant tornado.
Click the image for a higher-resolution view.

Of additional concern is the outlook’s indication that the same area (shaded in gray on the map above) has 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be capable of damage rated EF-2 or greater on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Possible EF-2 damage includes snapped or uprooted trees, destroyed mobile homes and roofs torn completely off houses.

The outlook gives most of the remainder of Indiana a 5% tornado probability, except for extreme northwestern Indiana, where the probability is 2%. This means a tornado is possible anywhere in Indiana tomorrow.

A map of Indiana showing probabilities of large hail in different areas.
Click the image for a higher-resolution version.

On its large hail probability map (above), the outlook shades all but extreme northwestern Indiana in yellow, indicating a probability of at least 15% that one inch or larger hail will occur within 25 miles of any point during the same period. The remainder of the state has a 5% large hail probability.

A map of Indiana showing an area that has a 10% or greater probability of 2-inch or larger hail.
Click the image for a higher-resolution view.

The outlook indicates that all but northwestern Indiana (shaded in gray on the map above) has a 10% probability that any hail that falls will be 2 inches or larger.

A map of Indiana showing damaging wind probabilities in different areas.
Click the image for a higher-resolution view.

On its damaging wind probability map (above), the outlook shades all but extreme northwestern Indiana in yellow, indicating a probability of at least 15% that damaging, straight-line winds or gusts of 58 mph or stronger will occur within 25 miles of any point during the same period. The remainder of the state has a 5% damaging wind probability.

It would be wise for people in Indiana — especially #Skywarn storm spotters and anyone who has an outdoor activity planned for Tuesday — to plan for all forms of severe weather and pay closer than usual attention to reliable sources of weather information, including the National Weather Service and professional broadcast meteorologists.

#severeweather #tornado #INwx #largehail #damagingwind

SKYWARN, Weather

Significant tornado outbreak outlook targets Ohio on eve of 50th anniversary of 1974 super outbreak

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Tornados, some significant, also possible in most of Indiana and other states

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point during the 24 hours beginning at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, April 2. Black hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be “significant,” doing damage of at least EF2 on the enhanced Fujitsu scale. Source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 2 a.m. EDT April 2, 2024. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

Note: This blog post was updated at 8:23 a.m. Tuesday, April 2, with newer SPC data.

Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible
from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South today, Tuesday, April 2, 2024, according to an outlook the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday, April 2. The highest probability of such weather is centered over Ohio, including Xenia, a city where a tornado killed at least 32 people during the super outbreak of April 3, 1974. The highest risk area also includes the Indian Lake area northwest of Columbus, Ohio, where a March 14, 2024 tornado killed three people.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point Tuesday, April 2, 2024, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the Storm Prediction Center issued at 2 a.m. EDT Monday, April 2, 2024. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

A large part of Ohio and parts of southeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky and western West Virginia (shaded red on the map above) have a 15% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point, according to the SPC outlook. Because tornados are generally so rare, a 15% probability is unusually high. By comparison, the “normal” probability of a tornado in that part of Ohio on April 2 of any year is no more than 0.40%, according to climatology (weather history) data compiled by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). That puts Tuesday’s probability at more than 37 times what’s normal for this time of year!

Even more disconcerting is the outlook’s forecast for what the SPC calls a “significant” tornado, which it defines as a tornado capable of doing damage that garners a rating of at least EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale of tornado damage and associated wind speeds. Tornados that do EF2 or greater damage contain winds of 111 mph to more than 200 mph.

Gray shading indicates a 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be “significant”; capable of doing EF2 or greater damage. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

If a tornado forms in parts of Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and other nearby states (shaded in gray on the map above) Tuesday, there’s a 10% or greater probability that tornado will be “significant.” In Ohio, the normal probability of a significant tornado on April 2 of any year is no more than 0.10%, according to NSSL climatology. That puts the probability of a significant tornado at 100 or more times what’s normal for this time of year.

Data from weather balloons “imply fast storm motions and the
possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which
may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes,” wrote SPC forecasters Bryan Smith and Elizabeth Leitman in the overnight outlook.

Although the highest probability of tornados is mostly in Ohio, tornados are possible Tuesday in many other states. For example, Fort Wayne, Indiana, where the author of this post resides, has a 5% tornado probability, 25 times the climatology norm.

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 is therefore a day during which it is essential to remain aware of weather forecasts, watches and warnings. Here’s a link to a previous blog post about reliable (and less reliable) ways to remain weather aware.

Spread the word, especially if you know anyone who lives in Ohio!


SKYWARN, Weather

Severe weather is possible Sunday, Aug 6, including a tornado.

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This map from today’s SPC Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook indicates an area (shaded in yellow) that has a 15% probability of severe weather on Sunday, August 6. It includes the entire state of Indiana.

TLDR: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued an outlook early this morning that indicates a probability of all forms of severe weather throughout Indiana Sunday, including tornadoes; damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds; and large hail. People should pay attention to reliable sources of weather information as Sunday nears, especially people who are planning outdoor activities Sunday afternoon and evening.

How we know this is possible

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a branch of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) that’s responsible for providing timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. Every day, it issues severe weather outlooks for the current day (Day 1) and for days two (tomorrow), three, four, five, six, seven and eight.

Accurately predicting severe weather more than two days in advance is difficult. So, if the SPC indicates a possibility of severe weather in an outlook for three days from now, it’s wise to pay attention.

In the outlook for Sunday that SPC issued this morning (Aug. 3), it indicated a 15% probability of severe weather, including tornados, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hail, within 25 miles of any point in Indiana as well as parts of neighboring states.

Tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and large hail are all possible in Indiana Sunday.

Why is 15% a big deal?

As percentages go, 15% looks pretty small. But that’s because severe storms don’t happen all the time. The SPC, in collaboration with another branch of the NWS, the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), analyzes historical weather data to determine the normal probability of severe weather on any given date (based on how many times it happened on that date in the past). That analysis indicates that in Indiana, the normal probability of severe weather on any August 6 is 2% to 3% (depending on where in the state, see graphic below).

SPC/NSSL map showing probabilities of severe weather in various parts of the continental United States on any August 6, based on data collected between 1982 and 2011.

That means Sunday’s 15% probability of severe storms is 5 to 7.5 times what’s normal for that date.

What’s most likely, tornadoes or severe thunderstorms?

Day 4 is too far away for SPC to provide probabilities for specific severe weather hazards, like tornados. Nonetheless, the text of today’s Day 4 outlook implies that tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and large hail are all possible in Indiana Sunday.

In addition. local NWS offices in Indiana issued their own outlooks today that indicate the possibility of severe weather Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening. These local outlooks also indicate the NWS might need reports from trained, volunteer storm spotters Sunday.

Tomorrow, SPC will issue a Day 3 outlook for Sunday that will provide a categorical risk level from one to five (five being the greatest risk) and possibly modify the target area based on the latest available weather data.

Saturday, SPC will issue a Day 2 outlook for Sunday that will provide individual probabilities of a tornado, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds (58 mph or stronger), and large hail (one inch or larger). By then, we’ll have a much better idea of what parts of the state have the highest risk and which hazards are most likely.

What should you do now?

No matter who you are, if you’ll be in Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening, and especially if you plan to be involved in an outdoor activity, pay close attention to a trusted source of weather information as Sunday approaches, such as your local NWS office or professional broadcast meteorologists. If you don’t have a weather alert radio in your home, this would be a good time to buy one.

If you’re a trained Skywarn storm spotter like me, prepare for possible activation Sunday, including charging all your battery-powered devices and reviewing what to look for, what to report, and how to report it. The NWS will likely need your eyewitness reports so they can issue the best warnings and keep people safe.

SKYWARN, Weather

Tornado strikes NW Allen County July 29

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Path of a tornado that touched down just west of the Eel River Golf Course south of Churubusco and tracked rapidly east southeast, crossing US 33 before dissipating in a corn field west of Chase Road. NWS image.

The National Weather Service Northern Indiana weather forecast office (IWX) announced August 2 that it found evidence that a tornado did damage in eastern Whitley County and northwestern Allen County, Indiana at approximately 2:30 a.m. July 29.

“But wait,” you might say, “I never heard about a tornado warning for Allen County that day!” That’s because IWX didn’t issue a tornado warning for this storm. At the time of the tornado, however, a severe thunderstorm warning was in effect that included the words, “tornado possible.”

Most severe thunderstorm warnings do not automatically create alerts on your cell phone.

It’s not unusual for the kind of storm we had Saturday morning (a bowing “squall line”) to spawn weak tornados that appear and disappear before the National Weather Service can issue a warning. That’s why, when they warn us of a severe thunderstorm that could contain such tornados, they mention that a tornado is possible.

Weather radar loop slowing the bowing squall line that moved across Indiana early July 29.

It’s also one reason that it’s so important to know about and react appropriately to severe thunderstorm warnings, including those the National Weather Service issues in the middle of the night, when you’re sleeping. But that requires extra effort on your part, because most severe thunderstorm warnings do not automatically create alerts on your cell phone.

If you’ve ever been someplace covered by a tornado warning, you probably received a Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) on your phone, even if you never installed a weather app. That’s because all modern smartphones come with WEAs enabled and all tornado warnings prompt WEAs.

The only severe thunderstorm warnings that trigger WEAs, however, are those in which the National Weather Service includes a “destructive” damage threat “tag.” They do that for storms that have either hail that’s at least 2.75 inches in diameter (baseball-sized) and/or 80 mph straight-line thunderstorm winds. According to Saturday morning’s severe thunderstorm warning, meteorologists expected winds of up to 60 mph and no large hail. That warning therefore did not trigger a WEA.

So, how can you know if a storm like Saturday’s is headed toward your home in the middle of the night, while you’re asleep? I know of two really good ways:

  1. Buy a weather alert radio and keep it near enough to your bedroom to wake you.
  2. Install a weather alert app, like Storm Shield, and configure it to alert you to severe thunderstorm warnings.

When the NWS issues a severe thunderstorm warning for your location, the best way to be safe is to do the same thing you’d do in a tornado warning. Move to the most interior room on the lowest level of your house. This will provide the best protection from a brief tornado, like the one that touched down July 29 and from straight-line thunderstorm winds dropping a tree limb on your house, which is what killed a woman in Ohio City, Ohio July 20.

SKYWARN, Weather

High probability of very severe weather in Indiana today

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Probabilities of damaging, straight-line winds or gusts.

Damaging, straight-line thunderstorm winds — the kind that can knock down whole trees and cause widespread power outages and road blockages — are likely in Indiana this afternoon and evening, especially in extreme southwestern counties (shaded purple in the map above), according to a convective outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 9 a.m. ET today.

The 45% probability indicated on the map above compares to “normal” or “average” probability for this time of year of only 1%, acccording to climatology (weather history) data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

And in a large part of southern Indiana (shaded gray on the map below), any severe thundertorms that form could create wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. That’s the same as a category one hurricane. The probability of that happening is 10 percent, or approximately 100 times the climatology norm of 0.1%

Probability of gusts of 75 mph or stronger.

Tornadoes are also possible throughout Indiana and once again, the greatest risk is in the southwest (shaded yellow on the map below), where the probability is 10%, or about 25 times the climatology norm. The 5% probability in the rest of the state is about 12.5 times the norm for this time of year. So even though 10 and five are small numbers, they’re important in this context.

Probability of a tornado.

Any tornadoes that form in southwestern Indiana (shaded gray on the map below) have a 10% probability of doing damage rated EF-2 or higher on the enhanced Fujitsu scale. That’s about 50 times the climatology norm.

Probability of a significant tornado doing damange of EF-2 or greater.

The entire state also has a risk of one-inch or larger hail, but as the map below indicates, the hail risk is lower than the straight-line wind risk.

Probability of one-inch or larger hail.

It’s important for anyone in Indiana to have multiple ways to receive severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings today. Unfortunately, the Indianapolis NWS office reported this morning that three NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in southern Indiana were inoperative.

NWS Indianapolis tweet about inopertive weather radio transmitters

Update: The Indianapolis NWS office reported at 11:44 a.m. ET that all three transmitters had returned to service.

That makes multiple alerting methods even more important. People in that area shold probably keep a TV on, turned up, and tuned to a local station (i.e., not ESPN or Netflix!). Another idea is to install the free FEMA app on smartphones.

If your phone and other rechargeable devices are not fully charged, start charging them now.

If you’re a volunteer Skywarn storm spotter, prepare for activation this afternoon or evening.

Ham radio, SKYWARN, Weather

Allen County Group to Host Spotter Training

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Anyone can help protect their community from weather threats like tornadoes. In just a couple of hours, you can learn how severe weather forms, how to distinguish truly threatening weather from scary-looking but harmless clouds, and how to report severe weather so the rest of your community can be adequately warned.

The Allen County chapter of the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) invites all interested persons to attend its Feb. 21 meeting, from 6:30 to 8:30 p.m., at the main, downtown branch of the Allen County Public Library, The meeting will be devoted to severe weather and storm spotting. You don’t have to be a ham radio operator and you don’t need any prior knowledge of meteorology or communications.

Scheduled speakers include ABC21 Weekend Morning Meteorologist Caleb Chevalier, WANE 15 Chief Meteorologist Nicholas Ferreri, FOX 55 weekend Meteorologist Caleb Saylor, Fort Wayne’s NBC Weekend Meteorologist Jon Wilson, Allen County Office of Homeland Security director Bernie Beier, Consolidated Communications Partnership (911/public safety dispatch) director David Bubb, Allen County ARES team leader Jim Moehring and Allen County SKYWARN ham radio net manager Jay Farlow.

Although representatives of the National Weather Service (NWS) are not available for this meeting, we will follow the NWS SKYWARN curriculum with enhancements specific to Allen County. NWS does not plan to teach a spotter class in Allen County until autumn of 2019.

This event is free and only about 100 seats are available. If you plan to come, please register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/allen-county-storm-spotter-education-tickets-54685721465, so ARES will know if registrations approach the room’s capacity.

This meeting will be valuable to anyone who is interested in severe weather, including those who have previously received storm spotter training. More information is available on the host’s Facebook page.

Ham radio, SKYWARN

Education opportunities for storm spotters

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Alabama broadcast meteorologist and WeatherBrains podcast host James Spann speaks at the 2017 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar. Spann is scheduled to speak in March, 2018 at the Central Indiana Severe Weather Seminar in Indianapolis.
Alabama broadcast meteorologist and WeatherBrains podcast host James Spann speaks at the 2017 DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar near Chicago. Spann is scheduled to speak in March, 2018 at the Central Indiana Severe Weather Seminar in Indianapolis.

Note: This article appears in the February, 2018 issue of Allen County HamNews, a newsletter for the amateur radio operators of Fort Wayne and Allen County, Indiana. Some of the information might still be of value, however, to weather enthusiasts within driving distance of Indianapolis, Chicago or Columbus, Ohio.

It’s time again for a reminder about training for volunteer SKYWARN storm spotters (and those who would like to become spotters). As usual, the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) will provide a two-hour, in-person training session in Fort Wayne. This year’s event is scheduled for 7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 20, at the Public Safety Academy, 7602 Patriot Crossing (behind the Wal-Mart and Menards stores on U.S. 27 south of Tillman Road). Check-in begins at 6:30 p.m. Readers outside the Fort Wayne area should check with their local NWS offices for SKYWARN training sessions near them.

The NWS strongly requests all participants to register in advance via this website: http://bit.ly/2BC4fsi. To be honest, registration will be accepted at the door, but it helps the NWS a lot if you register in advance. Anyone who is unable to register via the web site may register via telephone by calling the Allen County Office of Homeland Security at 260-449-4671. There is no charge.

Reports from trained spotters, however, are much more valuable, because trained spotters are less likely to be fooled by scary-looking but benign clouds and are more likely to understand what the NWS really needs to know about (and what it doesn’t).

The NWS also strongly encourages all participants to complete a free, online independent study course before the in-person training session. This course contains valuable information that meteorologists won’t have time to cover during the in-person training. The online course can be found at http://bit.ly/1Ift9f0.

I’m often asked whether the NWS requires training and if so, how often. The honest answer is that the NWS will accept a storm report from anyone, whether or not that person has taken the training. Reports from trained spotters, however, are much more valuable, because trained spotters are less likely to be fooled by scary-looking but benign clouds and are more likely to understand what the NWS really needs to know about (and what it doesn’t).

That’s why the NWS recommends that spotters take the class at least once every three years. Many spotters attend every year, because it helps remind them of important information and because the NWS occasionally updates the class with new information.

Other education opportunities

For storm spotters who are interested in deeper dives into severe meteorology and related issues, several seminars in and near Indiana provide this opportunity.

Indianapolis

The Indianapolis NWS office and the Indiana chapter of the American Meteorology Society host the biennial Central Indiana Severe Weather Symposium this year. Speakers include Alabama television meteorologist James Span, who also hosts the well-known weather podcast WeatherBrains and fellow WeatherBrain Dr. Kim Klockow-McClain, the podcast’s social science expert and a research scientist at the University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. The all-day event takes place Saturday, March 17 on the campus of Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (a change from previous symposiums at Butler University). Learn more at http://bit.ly/2EmuvtZ.

Chicago area

The annual DuPage County Advanced Severe Weather Seminar takes place in one of Chicago’s western suburbs March 10. Specifically, the all-day event happens on the campus of Wheaton College in Wheaton, Illinois. That’s about a three-and-a-half-hour drive from Fort Wayne, but I’ve always found the learning worth the drive. Learn more at http://bit.ly/2rKB9aM.

Columbus, Ohio

The Ohio State University Meteorology Club hosts its annual, day-long Severe Weather Symposium on the OSU campus Friday, March 9. I’ve also attended this event several times and found it worth the drive to Columbus. Find more information at http://bit.ly/2rPoC5O.

Ham radio, SKYWARN

Learn to identify and report severe weather to NWS

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SKYWARN storm spotter training banner from NWS Northern Indiana flyer

The National Weather Service Northern Indiana weather forecast office has scheduled its annual SKYWARN storm spotter training class for Feb. 20 at the Public Safety Academy of Northeast Indiana.

If you’re already a volunteer storm spotter, this class will provide a valuable refresher on what to look for what to report and what’s not really useful to warning meteorologists.

The class is also great for anyone who has any interest in severe weather, even if you don’t plan to be a regular volunteer storm spotter in the NWS SKYWARN program.

Although amateur (ham) radio operators have been an integral part of the SKYWARN program since its inception, you need not be a ham to become a SKYWARN storm spotter. There are now many other ways to send storm reports to your local NWS office. Ham radio capabilities remain helpful, however, for improved situational awareness and as a communication tool when other means fail.

As you can read in the flyer below, the class starts at 7 p.m. at the Academy, 7602 Patriot Crossing, Fort Wayne. That’s the big building behind the Walmart and Menards stores on U.S. 27 south of Tillman Road, on the south edge of Fort Wayne. Doors open for check-in at 6:30 p.m.

The class is free but pre-registration is expected. To register, simply go to http://alleninspotter.eventzilla.net/web/event?eventid=2138917591. If you know someone who wants to attend who has no internet access, have them register by phone by calling 260-449-4671.

There are no prerequisites for this class but the NWS recommends completion of free, online training before the class. You can find that training at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23.

I’ve taken the class every year for more years than I can remember and I always get something out of it. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment here or on the National Weather Service Northern Indiana Facebook page.

If you don’t live near Fort Wayne, US National Weather Service Northern Indiana plans to offer the same clase at multiple locations in northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. You can find a complete list of the office’s classes here. If you live outside the area covered by the National Weather Service Northern Indiana office, contact the NWS office nearest you to learn when and where it will conduct storm spotter classes.

Flyer announcing SKYWARN storm spotter training in Fort Wayne, Indiana, Feb. 20,2018

SKYWARN

Top 5 ways to get severe weather warnings

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It’s hard to protect yourself and your family from tornados, damaging straight-line severe thunderstorm winds, or large hail, if you don’t know that the National Weather Service has issued a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning for your location.

So, here’s my list of the best ways to get tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings.

Continue reading →
SKYWARN

Half of Indiana has marginal risk of severe storms today

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Indiana map showing (Left) Risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Dark green shading: Marginal risk. Light green: thunderstorms possible but none expected to be severe. (Center) Probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. (Right) Probability of hail of one inch diameter or larger within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. Source: SPC "Day 1 Convective Outlook" issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT.
(Left) Risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Dark green shading: Marginal risk. Light green: thunderstorms possible but none expected to be severe. (Center) Probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. (Right) Probability of hail of one inch or more in diameter within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT. Click the image for a larger version.

Half of Indiana (shaded in dark green on the map, above-left) has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:52 a.m.

The primary risks are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch or more in diameter. The probability of either occurring within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area is five percent.

The normal wind probability for any May 12 is about two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Today’s probability, therefore, is roughly twice the normal probability for this date.

The normal hail probability for any May 12 is about one percent, so today’s probability is roughly five times normal.

There’s no reason to be alarmed by a marginal risk, but if you live in that half of Indiana, it’s wise to remain weather-aware today, especially if you’ll be involved in any outdoor activities (e.g. baseball games, etc.). Remember that all thunderstorms, severe or not, bring lightning, which kills people who are outdoors.

The SPC plans to update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.