91 attend Fort Wayne SKYWARN storm spotter training

For the first time in a couple years, meteorologists from the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) personally conducted training of SKYWARN storm spotters in Fort Wayne Feb. 17. Warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis, KG4KJQ and meteorologist Michael “Skip” Skipper presented the training to an official total of 91 attendees. Approximately half of audience members raised their hands when Lewis asked hams to identify themselves.

Audience at NWS SKYWARN storm spotter training, Fort Wayne, Indiana, Feb. 2015
Figure 1: Ninety-one people attended NWS SKYWARN training in Fort Wayne Feb. 17 (Photo by Whitley County emergency manager Charlie Heflin).

The session included the usual information on the role of the spotter, storm development, local severe weather climatology, recognition of various weather phenomena, spotter safety and reporting procedures. A detailed description of the training is beyond the scope of this article, which will instead touch on a few of the highlights, especially those portions that were new this year. If you missed the training, NWS plans two sessions near Fort Wayne this month:

  • March 16, 6 p.m. ET, Paulding, Ohio
  • March 19, 6 p.m. ET, Bluffton, Ind.

Detailed information about both sessions can be found at on the NWS Northern Indiana website.

One new feature of the training this year was audience participation via electronic polling. The presenters evaluated audience knowledge before and after the training by asking them to respond to questions via text message, Twitter or Web page form. Responses appeared on the projection screen in real time.

Thunderstorm spectrum discussed

One highlight of this year’s presentation was a discussion of the thunderstorm spectrum (see figure 2). It ranges from single-cell “pulse” storms, to two forms of multi-cell storms, to the classic supercell thunderstorm. Large, strong tornadoes originate from supercell storms, but such storms are rare in the 37-county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office. Multi-cell storms, especially “derecho”-type squall lines can produce winds as strong as weak tornadoes, which is why spotters and the general public should not ignore severe thunderstorm warnings. It’s important for spotters to understand that, especially in the northern Indiana CWA, storms can change type one or more times during their existence.

Thunderstorm spectrum slide from NWS SKYWARN storm spotter training. Single-cell pulse thunderstorm, multicell cluster storms and squall lines, and supercell
Figure 2: Slide from NWS spotter training presentation, used with permission.

When it comes to tornadoes, 82 percent of twisters in the northern Indiana CWA create damage at the EF0 or EF1 levels of the enhanced Fujita scale (see figure 3). Note that EF0 tornadoes can have winds as week as 65 mph. Severe thunderstorms can and often do produce much stronger winds. Also note that EF0 and EF1 tornadoes are very difficult for NWS Doppler radar to detect, sometimes developing and dissipating between radar scans. Less than one percent of storms in the northern Indiana office’s CWA reach the EF4 damage level, with wind speeds of 166 mph or greater.

Enhanced Fujita scale with probabilities in northern Indiana county warning area
Figure 3: Slide from NWS spotter training presentation, used with permission.

Convective outlooks change

Situational awareness is an important part of spotter preparation and safety. The NWS Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) convective outlooks are important situational awareness resources. Those outlooks look different now (see Figure 4). The new day one through day three convective outlooks have three risk categories between “general (non-severe) thunderstorms” and “moderate risk,” instead of the former single “slight risk” category. A “marginal risk” category now falls between “general thunderstorms” and “slight risk” and new “enhanced risk” category falls between “slight risk” and “moderate risk.” An SPC video briefing that fully explains the change in convective outlooks is available on the SPC’s website.

Categorical convective outlooks have new categories between "general thunderstorms" and "moderate risk"
Figure 4: Slide from NWS spotter training presentation, used with permission.

Also related to situational awareness is the announcement that the NWS office’s home page layout – and possibly navigation and URLs – will soon change. If you have bookmarked, for example, the severe weather briefing page on the northern Indiana office’s website, you might need to update your bookmarks after the change.

New spotter mnemonic: T.E.L.

This year’s training presentation uses a new mnemonic acronym to help spotters remember what the NWS needs to know (see Figure 5): “T.E.L. us.”

The “T” stands for “time.” Spotter reports should contain the clock time at which the spotter observed the event, even if it’s happening while the spotter sends the report. For example, rather than saying “now,” or “two minutes ago,” spotters should say “4:38 p.m.” or “1638 Eastern time.”

The “E” stands for “event.” This is the part of the report that contains detailed information about what the spotter saw, for example, hail (by size), a wall cloud, funnel cloud, tornado, wind or lightning damage (described), flooding, etc.

The “L” stands for “location.” This part of the report should contain a specific location, for example, “Allen County, Indiana, two miles northwest of Grabil,” or “In Fort Wayne, near the intersection of Coliseum Boulevard and Vance Avenue.”

Note that the reporting criteria are different than NWS warning criteria. For example, the NWS issues a severe thunderstorm warning for any storm that it expects to produce either winds of 58 mph or greater or hail of one inch or more in diameter. But the spotter reporting criteria are winds of 50 mph and hail of any size.

SKYWARN storm spotter reporting criteria from NWS Northern Indiana training presentation
Figure 5: Slide from NWS spotter training presentation, used with permission.

Finally, the NWS included in this year’s presentation a new reporting method matrix (see Figure 6). As in previous years, the meteorologists strongly recommended the use of the Twitter social media channel, while taking care to avoid discounting the importance of ham radio.

A primary advantage of reporting via ham radio is that others listening to the same frequency will simultaneously hear the report, aiding in the situational awareness of those who are monitoring. Another advantage is the resiliency of ham radio and the fact that it continues to work during Internet and cellular telephone failures. Disadvantages of reporting via ham radio include:

  • Inadequate volunteer staffing of the ham station at the NWS office often means that net control stations must re-file the reports by other means (e.g. telephone or an internal NWS Internet chat system).
  • When the ham station at the NWS office is staffed, the operator there must write down each report and then hand it off to a meteorologist, creating a certain amount of delay.
  • Until and unless the NWS issues a “local storm report” based on the spotter’s report, the information in the report is available only to those who are monitoring the frequency, which often includes few of the many spotters who are not hams and have no equipment with which to monitor.
  • Ham radio systems currently in use for SKYWARN provide no means of including photographic data with spotter reports.

Advantages of the Twitter social media channel include:

  • The channel does not rely on the limited availability of volunteer operators at the NWS.
  • Reports show up immediately on a computer in the NWS office, without relay or transcription.
  • Reports are visible immediately to anyone who has access to the Internet, including other spotters, emergency managers, members of the news media and the general public. As Lewis put it at one training session this year, “Call me and you and I know. Tweet me and the whole world knows.”
  • Reports can include photographs or video of events being reported, aiding in the NWS’ ability to validate the reports
  • The capacity of Internet channels is virtually unlimited, enabling the NWS to encourage sub-criteria reports.

Note that on the reporting methods matrix, the NWS encourages spotters to report winds of less than the normal reporting criteria of 50 mph (the approximate speed at which structural damage begins to occur) when using social media or the “mPing” app (more on that below). But for ham radio and telephone reports, the minimum wind is 50 mph. This is a sign that NWS really wants much more information from the field than it has received in the past but understands the limited capacities of channels such as ham radio and telephone.

For spotters who choose to use their Internet-connected mobile devices to file reports, a relatively new option is the Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPing) app from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. The app is available for both the Andoid and iOS platforms and originally only accepted precipitation reports. The current version also allows users to send hail, wind damage, tornado, flood and other reports. Reports sent via mPing show up directly on Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) terminals in NWS offices. A disadvantage of mPing is that all reports are anonymous and as such, users cannot identify reports as coming from trained spotters.

SKYWARN storm spotter guide to preferred reporting methods from NWS Northern Indiana trainnig
Figure 6: Slide from NWS spotter training presentation, used with permission.

In conclusion, I encourage all hams who are spotters to become familiar with Twitter, especially those who have Internet-connected mobile devices (e.g. smart phones). At the same time, I also encourage all hams to continue to make reports via ham radio, even if they’re also reporting via Twitter. This will assist in the situational awareness of spotters who are on the ham frequency as well as those who are only able to monitor Twitter.

I have become active on Twitter (@RadioW9LW, if you’d like to “follow” me) and will be happy to provide any assistance I can to any spotters who want to know more about Twitter. You can reach me via the “Contact W9LW” form in the right-hand column of this blog.

N. Ind. NWS gives emergency managers “heads up” on coming storms

Winter storm banner graphicThe northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) sent email messages today to emergency managers and the news media regarding two winter storm systems that could affect the office’s 37-county warning area (CWA) between Feb. 28 and March 4.

Storm 1: Sat. night into Sunday night

IWX CWA map
Area enclosed in red line is the county warning (forecast) area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office. Click the map to see a larger version.

The NWS forecasts two storm systems to affect the CWA of the northern Indiana office (see map at right). The first will arrive Saturday Night into Sunday (February 28-March 1). Regarding this system, NWS meteorologists have high confidence that snow will accumulate but low confidence regarding the location of highest snowfall amounts.

Snow should fall Saturday evening through Sunday night, with the heaviest snowfall occurring Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The NWS forecasts storm-total accumulation of up to six inches with accumulation being greater in the southern parts of the northern Indiana office’s CWA than in the northern parts.

During this storm, roads could become snow-covered and slippery, but surface temperatures should remain high enough to allow road treatments to remain effective.

Storm 2: Tue. morning into Wednesday

A second storm will reach the area early Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday (March 3-4).

As of this afternoon, NWS forecasters have low confidence in precipitation types and duration in any location with this storm. They expect, however, the storm to begin with snow, followed by period of freezing rain, then all rain.

The potential for snow and ice accumulation is greatest Tuesday morning, with rain falling Tuesday afternoon possibly into Wednesday.

The combination of runoff from the rain, melting snow and frozen rivers could cause flooding and ice jams.

As is always the case with winter storms, forecast confidence will increase as the storm approaches. People should monitor forecasts for changes.

Significant weather impacts possible over next several days

Two separate weather systems will bring a plethora of weather types “with significant impacts possible” in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio between tomorrow (Sat., Feb. 28) and Wednesday, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued this morning.

Heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, heavy rainfall and flooding all are possible.

NWS meteorologists expect the first weather system to bring all snow to the region late Saturday night through Sunday. That storm could bring two to four inches of snow over approximately the northern third of the northern Indiana office’s forecast area and three to six inches over the remainder of the region, according to an infographic the NWS issued this morning (below). The northern Indiana office had no immediate plans this morning to issue any advisories, watches or warnings associated with this first storm, “but certainly something will be needed eventually,” writes NWS meteorologist Sam Lashley.

NWS infographic showing Sat. through Sun. snowfall forecast
NWS infographic

Forecasters expect the second storm system to impact the region anytime from late Monday night through Tuesday night. This system could bring a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain late Monday night and Tuesday morning, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the NWS issued this morning. Meteorologists expect temperatures to rise above freezing Tuesday afternoon, when locally heavy rain could fall. Rivers and streams will likely still be frozen, so this heavy rain could lead to flooding of low-lying areas as well as ice jams and flooding along streams and creeks.

The track and timing of the second storm system remains uncertain, so the forecast might change. It would be wise to continue to monitor future forecasts.

Tweet responsibly during severe weather

Tornado clip art with Twitter bird logoDuring periods of severe weather, the micro-blogging service, Twitter often explodes with information. Some tweets are helpful, others are less so.

The “Virtual Operations Support Group” blog posted an excellent article last year, “How to Tweet Responsibly in Severe Weather” that every Twitter user should read before the next severe weather event happens.

Highlights include:

  • Include the Twitter handle of your local NWS office when reporting weather.
  • Include a time stamp with on any tweet about an NWS warning and any tweet that contains a severe weather report.
  • In weather reports, also include:
    • What you saw.
    • Where it happened.
    • A photo, if possible.
  • Even if you normally prohibit Twitter from knowing your location (for privacy), enable location services while tweeting about severe weather.

Learn about severe weather with NWS storm spotter training

The National Weather Service (NWS) will conduct live, in-person SKYWARN storm spotter training in Fort Wayne Feb. 17 at 7 p.m. at the Public Safety Academy/Ivy Tech South Campus, 7602 Patriot Crossing (off Lafayette St. south of Tillman Rd.).

The NWS relies heavily on trained, volunteer storm spotters. Ham radio operators have strongly supported the SKYWARN program for decades and recently more and more other volunteers, who are not ham radio operators, have joined in. An important part of supporting the program is to receive NWS training and to keep that knowledge up to date.

I want to be as helpful as possible to the NWS and, thereby my community. That’s why I attend SKYWARN training every year, even though the NWS only expects spotters to attend at least once every three years. I find it helpful to refresh my memory from the previous year and to make sure I’m aware of any new information.

If you’ve never attended the training, and you live in the Fort Wayne area, this is your chance to do so without traveling out of town. If you have attended in previous years, this month’s training will be a good refresher. If you don’t live in the Fort Wayne area, you can find a list of other classes taught by the northern Indiana NWS office here.

If you know anyone who is curious about what storm spotting is, invite them to attend. Remember that while a ham license is helpful to spotters, it’s not at all necessary, especially in these days of smartphones and mobile Internet.

The NWS considers the in-person training to be supplemental to online spotter training available on the MetEd website (https://www.meted.ucar.edu/). It recommends that all spotters complete the online training in addition to the in-person training and ideally, before the in-person session.

Finally, the NWS sincerely requests that all individuals register in advance for in-person training sessions. I have already honored that request, by registering for the Feb. 17 session. You can register online for the Fort Wayne class at http://allen-in-spotter.eventzilla.net/ or you can register by phone by calling the Allen County Office of Homeland Security at 260-449-4663.

Fort Wayne disaster ministry monitoring blizzard for possible response

ACAD logoAssociated Churches Active in Disaster (ACAD, the disaster ministry of Associated Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County) is monitoring the situation in the U.S. Northeast, where a major blizzard is underway.

ACAD is in communication with Operation Blessing, a national disaster ministry organization that coordinates the response of disaster volunteers. Operation Blessing positioned an advance team in New Jersey and is prepared to respond with food distribution and snow removal relief efforts. Operation Blessing is not at this time requesting volunteer assistance but could do so in the future, when the impact of the storm and resulting needs of affected communities become known.

ACAD is NOT asking local churches for any kind of assistance at this time, except for prayers for those in the path of the storm. Please do NOT reach out to ACAD or the Associated Churches office with offers of assistance until and unless requested.

ACAD will use social media (such as its Facebook page and Twitter account) and other channels, as appropriate, to keep local churches informed of the situation.

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 09 at 3:56PM EST until January 10 at 1:00PM EST by NWS

…WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY… HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. * GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
View the full statement on the NWS website.

Special Weather Statement issued January 09 at 2:51PM EST by NWS

…BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING… WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
View the full statement on the NWS website.

Severe weather, ham radio & anything else I feel like writing about