Flood forces home evacuations, sand-baggers requested

Firefighters rescued 38 people and eight pets from flood waters at Stoney Creek Estates in Zanesville, Ind. early this morning. WANE-TV photo.
Firefighters rescued 38 people and eight pets from flood waters at Stoney Creek Estates in Zanesville, Ind. early this morning. WANE-TV photo.

Flooding forced 38 people to evacuate their mobile homes in Zanesville, Ind. early this morning, according to a report by Fort Wayne television station WANE.

The Southwest (Allen County) Fire District and the Ossian Fire Department responded to Stoney Creek Estates at around 1 a.m.

Emergency workers transported the residents to a shelter at Zanesville United Methodist Church.

Flood water submerged transformers in the mobile home park, so utility workers had to shut off power.

At about the same time, emergency crews evacuated about 10 homes in the Huntington County town of Andrews and the Huntington County Emergency Management Agency called for volunteers to help fill sandbags:

As of 9:27 a.m. today, the agency indicated it could still use volunteers at the Street Department on Webster Street in Huntington this morning.

High water has closed many roads and highways in northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio.

The sun came out this morning, but it will take a while for flood waters to receded, according to an inforgraphic published by the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service:

The office issued a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” this morning that indicated more heavy rain could bring additional flooding Wednesday:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-171115-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30.
ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON
LARGER...MAIN STEM RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED WITH
STANDING WATER. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT FLOOD REPORTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

Huge Illinois hail stone provides incentive to heed NWS products

Infographic from National Weather Service Chicago weather forecast office showing huge hail stone (4.75 inch) that fell in Minooka, Illinois, June 10, 2015
Infographic from National Weather Service Chicago weather forecast office.

Softball-size pieces of ice fell from the sky in northern Illinois June 10, at around 7:20 p.m. One resident provided the National Weather Service’s Chicago weather forecast office (WFO) with a photo of a hail stone that was 4.75 inches across its largest dimension. It’s the second-largest hail stone on record in the entire state of Illinois. I surely would not want to be caught outside when stuff like that starts dropping!

Yellow polygon surrounds the area covered by a severe thunderstorm warning that the Chicago National Weather Service issued for the Minooka, IL area at 7:05 p.m. CDT.
Yellow polygon surrounds the area covered by a severe thunderstorm warning that the Chicago National Weather Service issued for the Minooka, IL area at 7:05 p.m. CDT.

This demonstrates why there should be no such thing as “only” a severe thunderstorm warning (a phrase I often hear from people who are less weather-aware). At least 10 minutes before that ice rock fell on Minooka, the Chicago WFO issued a severe thunderstorm warning that covered that area.

It also shows why “large hail” is one of the three threats that the NWS Storm Prediction Center includes in its convective outlooks. The  SPC convective outlook that was in effect at the time this huge hail stone fell indicated that the area had a slight risk of hail of one inch or more in diameter.

Hail probability map from the SPC convective outlook that was in effect at the time the huge hail stone fell on Minooka, IL.
Hail probability map from the SPC convective outlook that was in effect at the time the huge hail stone fell on Minooka, IL.

Before you saw this huge hail stone, you might have thought a “slight” risk was nothing to worry about. After all, it technically means that there’s “only” a 15 percent probability of large hail within 25 miles of where you’re standing. That seems like a small probability in a large area.  No reason to be concerned, right?

But consider this: The “normal” probability of one-inch or larger hail falling within 25 miles of the center of Minooka (or anywhere in Illinois) at this time of year is one percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. That means that the “slight risk” in the convective outlook for the evening of June 10 indicated a probability that was 15 times greater than normal!

Want to be more weather-aware now? Below are some helpful links:

  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks depict the severe weather risk levels everywhere in the continental U.S. for today and each of the next seven days.
  • Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussions indicate when the SPC is thinking about issuing a severe thunderstorm watch or tornado watch.
  • Hazardous Weather Outlooks (HWOs) issued by your local weather forecast office indicate whether local meteorologists expect severe weather in your area and whether they think SKYWARN storm spotters will need to activate. To find the HWO for your area, go to weather.gov, type your ZIP code in the box near the upper left-hand corner, click the “Go” button, wait for a new page to load and then look for a link that reads, “Hazardous Weather Outlook” in a section near the top labeled, “Hazardous Weather Conditions.”
  • Watches and warnings. If either are in effect for your area, they’ll also be listed in the “Hazardous Weather Conditions” section of your local forecast page (see “Hazardous Weather Outlooks,” above). Remember, a watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather, making it likely. A warning means that severe weather is happening now.

 

House passes weather forecast bill

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill that would require the National Weather Service (NWS) to devote a larger portion of its research budget to improving forecasts of tornadoes and hurricanes and increasing warning lead times.

The Senate has assigned H.R. 1561, the “Weather Research and Forecast Innovation Act of 2015″ to its Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

Read more about the bill in a news release issued by co-sponsor Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla.).

WANE gets new meteorologist

Broadcast meteorologist Hannah StrongFort Wayne’s WANE TV gets a new broadcast meteorologist this week. Hannah Strong replaces Jesse Hawila, who took a job in Kansas City earlier this year.

Strong graduated this spring from Mississippi State University, which is known for its broadcast meteorology program.

The Fort Wayne television market is certainly not huge (it’s ranked at 111 out of 210), but it’s still somewhat unusual for a person fresh out of college to land his or her first job here. Hannah must have some strong (pun unintended) skills for WANE to have chosen her over more experienced candidates!

I encourage my readers, especially my fellow storm spotters, to join me in welcoming Strong to the market. You can follow her on Facebook, on Twitter at @WXStrong and on Instagram at @WeatherStrong.

Palm Sunday tornado tweets a must read for weather, history buffs

Anyone interested in severe weather, history, or both will greatly appreciate a series of posts that the National Weather Service northern Indiana weather forecast office (WFO) published on the micro-blogging site Twitter yesterday.

And the WFO’s staff should be commended for excellent work gathering a great deal of historical information about the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak and for presenting it in such a compelling way.

The WFO prepared more than 100 tweets, many with images of actual text products issued via teletype the day of the outbreak. Other tweets contained Google maps with tornado tracks marked on them and photos of the tornadoes taken by citizens and photojournalists.

To add to the drama, the WFO scheduled each tweet to appear on Twitter at times coincident with the actual times of day that the events occurred. Genius.

The WFO’s series of tweets gives viewers a real sense of how different severe weather forecasting, detection and warnings were 50 years ago. For example, one thing that struck me was the Fort Wayne Weather Bureau office relaying to local broadcast media via teletype word of tornadoes in the Lafayette area. These days, because of better detection and communication technology, you rarely see WFOs issuing text products regarding tornadoes that distant.

If you missed the live tweets yesterday, you’re in luck, because they’re still visible on the Twitter website, even to people who do not have Twitter accounts. Just follow this link. When you get there, scroll down to a point near the bottom of the page to the tweet that reads, “We are beginning the live tweet of the events of 4/11/65, the Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak,” and then read your way up from there.

I highly recommend it.

 

 

New Facebook page

I created a new Facebook for sharing weather information, including links to posts on this blog.

I had been sharing quite a bit of stuff on my personal Facebook timeline. But most of the information I shared related to Indiana and nearby areas, and my personal Facebook account has a lot of friends who live to far away to care.

I didn’t want to clog up their Facebook news feeds with irrelevant information, so I created the new Facebook page linked below. I welcome you to check it out:

https://www.facebook.com/RadioW9LW.weather

I’ll continue to use my Twitter account for similar purposes:

https://www.twitter.com/RadioW9LW

 

Meteorology prof posts Ill. tornado damage photos

Below are some photo tweets shared by College of DuPage assistant professor of meteorology Vittorio (Victor) Gensini today as he helped with damage assessment after yesterday’s tornado in the Fairdale, Ill. area. The National Weather Service has preliminarily rated the tornado as a long-track EF-4.

NWS plans Twitter commemoration of Palm Sunday tornado outbreak

The famous Palm Sunday twin tornado photo, taken along U.S. 33 by Paul Huffman of the
The famous Palm Sunday twin tornado photo, taken along U.S. 33 by Paul Huffman of the “Elkhart Truth”

If you follow the the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service on Twitter (@NWSIWX) and if your smart phone beeps at you every time the office tweets, you might want to change your settings before tomorrow.

The office plans to send more than 100 tweets to mark the 50th anniversary of the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak that killed 145 people in Indiana. No other tornado outbreak in the state’s history has killed that many people.

Presentation slide from northern Indiana NWS office.
Presentation slide from northern Indiana NWS office.

The NWS office plans to send tweets in real time, as if it were live tweeting during the actual outbreak. Every tweet will include the hash tag #PalmSunday50. This will give followers a feel for how NWS received information that day and the warnings it issued.

You can follow along, whether or not you have a Twitter account. The tweets will be visible at either of the following Web URLs:

https://twitter.com/search?f=realtime&q=%22%23PalmSunday50%22&src=typd

https://twitter.com/nwsiwx

The NWS office has also created a special website that provides detailed information about the outbreak, including photos like the one at the top of this post and first-hand accounts that witnesses provided the NWS.

SPC Infographic explains new convective outlook categories

Explanation of new categories the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center is using on its convective outlooks.
Explanation of new categories the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center is using on its convective outlooks.

The  National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) worked closely with NWS offices, social scientists, communication specialists, FEMA, forecasters, and the general public, to arrive at this description of severe thunderstorm risk categories that SPC  uses in official NWS severe weather outlooks. More details are available here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Severe

Bill in Congress would expand NWS research to improve severe weather forecasts

Photo of tornado with words superimposed: H.R. 1561: "... zero death from severe weather events ..."

“… an important step toward moving to a day when we have zero deaths from severe weather events…”

Some members of Congress want the National Weather Service (NWS) to devote a larger portion of its research budget to improving forecasts of tornadoes and hurricanes and increasing warning lead times. H.R. 1561, the “Weather Research and Forecast Innovation Act of 2015″ would Impose that requirement on the NWS, if it becomes law. The Science, Space, and Technology Committee passed the bill late last month.

Bill co-sponsor Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla.) said in his blog, “The Weather Forecasting Innovation and Research Act is an important step toward moving to a day when we have zero deaths from severe weather events, such as tornadoes which can be devastating in my home state of Oklahoma. By prioritizing funding within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, we can advance critical technologies and capabilities to vastly improve weather forecasting in the United States and save lives and property.”

Bill author Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) said, “The United States needs a world-class weather prediction system that helps protect the American people and their property. Unfortunately, for the last few years, our leadership in weather forecasting has slipped and we now play second fiddle to the European forecasting offices, who often predict America’s weather better than we can. The bill before us today will help us reclaim superior weather prediction and forecasting capabilities. Our citizens deserve this.”

if you agree, as I do, that the NWS, while doing a good job now, needs the ability to better forecast and warn us about severe weather, contact your own congressman and ask him to support H.R. 1561. The Open Conress website makes this easy.

Severe weather, ham radio & anything else I feel like writing about