Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. Monday, Jul. 13 and 8 a.m. Tues., Jul. 14. Red shading: 30% (enhanced risk). Yellow: 15% (slight risk). Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. Inside black loop: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather (see blog text). Source: SPC “Day 3 Convective Outlook” issued at 3:38 a.m. EDT.