Category Archives: SKYWARN

Particularly Dangerous Situation severe thunderstorm watch issued

Map showing counties included in PDS severe thunderstorm watch #300
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM
400 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF FINDLAY
OHIO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Particularly dangerous situation severe thunderstorm watch planned

Map showing area where PDS watch will be issued

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center plans to issue a “particularly dangerous situation (PDS) severe thunderstorm watch” for the northern third of Indiana by 6 p.m. EDT, according to a mesoscale discussion the SPC issued at 4:38 p.m. EDT.

The SPC issues PDS severe thunderstorm watches when there is a threat of a high-end “derecho” with widespread wind damage.

 According to the mesoscale discussion, thunderstorms developing across northeastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois will congeal into an accelerating convective system and move east-southeastward across northern Indiana during the late afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds, some in excess of 65 knots, (74.8 mph) are likely, along with embedded tornadoes.

4 p.m. SPC update: High risk still in effect

Convective outlook map showing slight, moderate and high-risk areas

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued an updated Day One Convective Outlook at 4 p.m. EDT. The updated outlook continues to indicate a high risk for severe weather in the northern third of Indiana between 3 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow.

In the 4 p.m. update, SPC wrote that the threat for a significant, widespread damaging wind event still appeared to be on track from southern portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley region. Storms were in the process of developing from northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. These initial storms might organize as discrete supercells with an initial tornado threat. Storms should eventually consolidate and transition to an organized complex of thunderstorms (mesoscale convective system), with an increasing threat of significant wind damage as it moves east-southeastward through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the evening and overnight.

Update on storm timing

NWS logo

From tweets sent at around 1 p.m. EDT by the National Weather Service northern Indiana weather forecast office (@nwxiwx):

Storms are expected to fire across the area around the 4-6 PM EDT timeframe. Line/bow echo expected to develop across Nrn. IL this eve…

Line/bow xpctd to race from IL/IN border to IN/OH border from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT timeframe. Wind gusts over 75 mph possible with the line.

Storms early will produce large hail 2″ or more possible, main threat becomes wind damage with the line/bow.

Tornadoes also possible along the warm front and at the northern end of the line/bow. Flash flooding possible as well along the warm front.

Please be prepared for large hail, extreme damaging winds and possible tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight! Stay tuned for updates.

High risk of severe weather in northern Indiana

Map from Day 1 Convective Oultook showing damaging wind probabilities
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

In all my years of volunteering as a SKYWARN storm spotter (since the 1970s), I’ve vary rarely seen a convective outlook that indicated a high risk of severe weather in the Fort Wayne area. I don’t remember how many times I’ve seen it, but I’m fairly sure it’s been fewer than five. Suffice to say it’s very unusual in our area and when it happens, we should pay very close attention to the weather. Well, it happened this afternoon.

At 12:26 p.m. EDT, the Storm Prediction Center issued and updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that indicates a high risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow. The high risk area includes approximately the northern third of Indiana (including Fort Wayne), the northern fourth of Illinois and slivers of southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio. For IMO SKYWARN members, the high risk area includes almost all of quadrants one and two and all of quadrants three and four.

The main reason for the increase to high risk is the increase in the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (57.5 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. That risk has increased from 45 percent to 60 percent in the high risk area (see the map above).

There’s very little uncertainty that severe weather will occur, that SKYWARN spotters will need to activate and that the general public should be prepared for very damaging thunderstorms. Be ready to receive and respond to watches and warnings as they are issued later.

Flash flood watch issued

The flash flood watch below covers all 37 counties of the IMO SKYWARN area.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH RATES
OF 1 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. GIVEN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-130015-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FF.A.0001.130612T2200Z-130613T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 /1102 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...
DE KALB...ELKHART...FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...
KOSCIUSKO...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...
PULASKI...ST. JOSEPH IN...STARKE...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...
WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN...BRANCH...
CASS MI...HILLSDALE AND ST. JOSEPH MI. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...
VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF WET GROUND
CONDITIONS AND THE RAPID RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

* WHILE MANY RIVERS WILL RESPOND AND BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE RAINFALL...SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS COULD
RAPIDLY FLOOD AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF
YOU ENCOUNTER WATER...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

Upgrade to high risk coming

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion that indicates that the next convective outlook will upgrade the risk of damaging wind from “moderate risk” to “high risk” from extreme eastern Iowa into northern portions of Illinois and Indiana and northwestern Ohio. More details will appear in the next Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Will we have a derecho? Maybe. Does it matter? NO!

Gust front “shelf cloud” (or “arcus”) on the leading edge of a derecho-producing convective system. The photo was taken on the evening of July 10, 2008 in Hampshire, Illinois as the storm neared the Chicago metropolitan area. The derecho had formed around noon in southern Minnesota. (Courtesy of Brittney Misialek via the SPC website)

Many people learned the meteorological term, “derecho” for the first time after a large bowing line of thunderstorms did massive straight-line wind damage in the Fort Wayne area and elsewhere on June 29 and July 1, 2012. Since then, some people equate the term with “really, really bad thunderstorm.” These folks want to know if there will be a derecho tonight, because they think that only a derecho would produce the kind of thunderstorm damage they saw last June. They’re wrong.

According to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center website, a derecho (pronounced similar to “deh-REY-cho” in English) is a “widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms.” By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho.

What some people probably don’t realize is that you don’t need a derecho to get wind gusts of 58 mph or greater and the same kind of damage we saw last June. A bowing line of strong thunderstorms can do such damage, even if the line is less than 240 miles long and therefore not technically a derecho.

So if you know someone who is worried about whether there will be a derecho, tell them to forget it. Also tell them to pay attention to any thunderstorm warnings that come out, because any storm that generates such a warning can cause the kind of damage we saw last June.

Last June’s storm demonstrated that people don’t pay enough attention to thunderstorm warnings. They don’t take action unless a tornado warning comes out. That’s foolish, and last June’s storms proved it.

Derecho or no derecho, we could have some really, really bad thunderstorms tonight. Make sure you’re able to receive any tornado or thunderstorm warning that comes out, regardless of the time of day, and don’t ignore any thunderstorm warnings, just because they aren’t tornado warnings!

Northern Indiana NWS office issues new Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1026 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-131430-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1026 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 /926 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 30 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK RAPIDLY EAST INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE RAIN MAY CAUSE AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX