Category Archives: SKYWARN

SKYWARN

What’s the #1 source for national weather?

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Amateur-run Facebook pages should not mislead readers into believing that their information is better than that of the National Weather ServiceShould a Facebook page run by amateur storm chasers promote itself as the best source for weather information? I can’t help but wonder how many (if any) naïve Facebook users foolishly rely on such pages for time-critical safety information, in lieu of the National Weather Service (NWS).

Recently, a Facebook page distributed the graphic above. I’ve blurred out identifying information, because who it was doesn’t matter to the point of this article. But the headline, “The #1 Source for National Weather” certainly caught my eye.

I’ve tried multiple times to contact the owners of the Facebook page that published that graphic. I sent a Facebook message and sent an email message to the email address on their website. I’ve received no response. So, all I know about them is what I see online.

From what I see, both the Facebook page and associated website are published by a group of amateur storm chasers, none of whom appear to have a meteorology degree.

In the U.S., only one source of weather information has the authority to issue the official watches and warnings that trigger weather radios, etc.

Don’t read what I’m not writing! There’s nothing wrong with an amateur-run Facebook page or website distributing interesting or important weather information. I do it all the time on Facebook, this blog, Twitter, etc. What I don’t do, however, is claim that my information is any better than others’.

Why? Because I don’t want anyone to assume that my blog, Facebook page or Twitter feed (or anyone’s for that matter) is a safe and reliable way to get timely, live-saving weather alerts, especially NWS warnings. Not even the NWS’ own Facebook and Twitter feeds are timely enough for that (yet).

That’s also why I consistently encourage readers – for their safety – to maintain timely access to NWS products (e.g. via NOAA Weather Radio, smartphone apps triggered by NWS products, Wireless Emergency Alerts, etc.).

All of us who publish weather information on social media and other Internet channels have a responsibility to inform and remind readers that in the U.S., only one source of weather information has the authority to issue the official watches and warnings that trigger weather radios, etc.: The National Weather Service. Likewise, we must not publish anything that could potentially mislead readers into believing that our social media feeds can keep them as safe as do directly received NWS warnings.

Our readers’ lives could depend on it!

What do you think? Use this blog’s comment function to let us know.

SKYWARN

NWS SKYWARN storm spotter training begins in less than a month!

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SKYWARN storm spotter training graphic
NWS image

In most of Indiana, it seems as if winter just arrived. So it might surprise you to know that your chance to become a trained, volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service (NWS) (or refresh your knowledge) might be less than a month away.

NWS offices provide training in multiple, identical sessions throughout their county warning areas. To finish all the presentations before the spring severe storm season gets underway, many offices schedule their first sessions near the beginning of February.

For example, the northern Indiana NWS office plans to conduct its first session of the year Feb. 3 in Napoleon, Ohio. It scheduled its first session in Indiana for Feb. 4, in Elkhart.

Because each session is identical, you need not attend the session nearest you, if another session is more convenient.

National Weather Service SKYWARN Storm Spotter Jay Farlow W9LW using ham radio
WFFT image

To be an NWS SKYWARN storm spotter volunteer, all you need is:

  • An interest in helping to protect your community from severe weather
  • Training to distinguish harmless, scary-looking clouds from truly threatening conditions and to report with correct terminology.
  • A way to communicate with the NWS (e.g. a phone, Internet access and/or a ham radio license and appropriate radio gear).

You don’t need any knowledge of weather or science. The NWS will teach you everything you need to know.  You don’t even need a car! Some spotters never leave their homes, yet provide valuable information to the NWS.

To learn about training opportunities, visit the Web page of the NWS office that serves your county. At the time I wrote this, it appeared that some of the offices below (all of which serve parts of Indiana) had not yet posted their 2016 training schedules. If that’s the case for the office that covers your county, keep checking back, because those offices will very likely publish their schedules soon.

SKYWARN

Irresponsible social media weather hype has real consequences

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(Jan. 4, I edited the post below — which originally appeared Jan. 2 — to include a citation of an excellent blog post by well-known, Alabama broadcast meteorologist James Spann)
Distributing weather hype -- long-range forecasts of storms based only on model data -- is irresponsible
As a follow-up to a Facebook post I shared earlier today on the “Radio W9LW Weather” Facebook page, I want to make a few things clear to the readers of this blog, the Facebook page and the RadioW9LW Twitter feed.
 

I consider it irresponsible to publish long-range forecasts of storms on social media. It doesn’t matter what some computer-driven, numeric model of the atmosphere says might happen two or more weeks from now. It doesn’t even matter if more than one model agree.  All that matters to me are the forecasts of highly trained meteorologists, who combine information gleaned from models with other knowledge to responsibly forecast the weather over a reasonable period (I consider anything specific more than seven days from now to be unreasonable). Yes, it might turn out that some weather enthusiast’s favorite model was “right” to forecast a heavy snow event four weeks from now. So what? That doesn’t make that enthusiast’s distribution of that model’s data responsible.

Alabama broadcast meteorologist James Spann
Spann

As well-known, Alabama broadcast meteorologist James Spann writes in his blog, “Most of the 2-3 week ‘forecasts’ are done by people not qualified to forecast the weather 2-3 days in advance. Most are young weather enthusiasts that, in their love for ice, snow, or severe weather, just ‘wishcast’ by throwing out model maps they have pulled down on various sites promoting the weather they love and desire without understanding the limitations of using those products, or the science behind them” (italicized emphasis added by me).

What’s the harm? As Spann puts it, “a banner headline about a snow storm in three weeks in the southern U.S. can create a societal impact.” For example, people unnecessarily reschedule needed medical treatments or important travel. These things really happen, because members of the general public don’t know how to distinguish reliable, science-based forecasts from the “wishcasts” Span describes above.

Plus, people deluge professional meteorologists (like Spann and National Weather Service staff members) with messages asking whether the irresponsible social media forecast is valid, wasting valuable time.

We are blessed in the United States, however, with the rights of free speech and freedom of the press. Therefore, I do not support any form of regulation that would restrict people from irresponsibly publishing long-range, model-based forecasts on social media. Nor would I support any attempt to restrict access to model data, to make it more difficult for people to share it irresponsibly. The best ways to reduce such irresponsible use of social media are to a.) refuse to share it and b.) attempt to help members of the general public understand the limits of the science.

Now, a little about me, my social media posts and why I do what I do:

I am not a meteorologist. If you’ve paid close attention to the weather information I’ve shared, you’ll see that anything related to forecasts is attributed to very reliable sources, most often the National Weather Service (NWS). I do not create my own forecasts and I refrain from commenting on the likelihood of some weather phenomena occurring, except to relay confidence levels of NWS meteorologists and probabilities published by, for example, NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) meteorologists. For example, you won’t see me publish anything like, “The SPC has this area under a moderate risk, but I’m not impressed by (enter some atmospheric measure here).”

I consider myself a journalist. I have worked in the past as a professional journalist and continue to use the skills I gained in that career in my current career as a public relations consultant. That’s why you’ll see attributions in my posts, so you’ll know who created the information I share. It’s also why you might recognize the use of Associate Press style in my posts.

I am a trained, volunteer SKYWARN storm spotter for the National Weather Service. In addition to the basic training that the NWS provides annually, I attend a wide variety of other seminars, at my personal expense, to learn more about meteorology. The knowledge I’ve gained helps me be a more effective storm spotter and it helps me better interpret meteorological information. It does not, however, qualify me to forecast the weather. Forecasting requires much more than knowing where to find map graphics based on computer-run numeric models of the atmosphere.

I am all about weather safety. It’s why I invest so much of my life in storm spotting, weather education and writing about weather. I want to do what I can to help protect my neighbors and others from severe weather and to help the NWS issue effective warnings.

Are you with me? Post a comment, and/or use the sharing buttons to share this “manifesto” with others.

SKYWARN

A must read for any journalist who ever covers weather aftermath

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Weather blogger Dennis Mersereau is absolutely correct when, in a recent blog post, he admonishes journalists to choose their words carefully, especially when writing about weather disasters.

The impetus of his post was a People Magazine headline and tweet Dec. 24 that described the Dec. 23 tornadoes in the South and Midwest as “unexpected.”

People magazine’s original tweet about Dec. 23 tornadoes

I first learned about the above tweet (based on a headline which People later changed, after being blasted on social media) when my friend and National Weather Service meteorologist Nick Greenawalt tweeted about it:

You can see my comment at the time, above.

My lovely wife later helped me realize that there was a chance the writer of that headline did not intend to imply that the tornadoes were not forecast or that people in their path were not warned. Instead, she asserted, it’s possible that “unexpected” was simply an extremely poor word choice to communicate how unusual tornadoes are at this time of year.

In his recent blog post, Mersereau lays out the entire series of outlooks, watches and warnings that should have made every citizen in the affected area that tornadoes were likely that day.

He also makes compelling arguments for the idea that words matter in stories about weather aftermath.

Even if my lovely wife is right, at best, a member of People’s staff chose poorly when he or she wrote the Dec. 24 headline. But Mersereau is also right. Words matter. Especially when they appear in publications that have audiences the size of People’s.

We should all hold journalists to high standards in their choices of words.

I strongly recommend you read Mersereau’s post and share it:

http://www.dennismersereau.com/2015/12/when-storms-threaten-lives-words-matter.html

SKYWARN

Missed test causing weather radios to beep

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Photo of weather radio
Midland brand programmable NOAA weather radio

Weather alert radios all over northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and southern Lower Michigan started mysteriously beeping over the weekend. Some radios also began displaying a “check reception” message on their displays. The radios were attempting to warn their owners that they might have lost the radio signal from the National Weather Service (NWS) NOAA Weather Radio transmitters.

The radio signal is, in fact, fine. But for some reason, last week, the radios did not receive the test alarm that the NWS northern Indiana office sends every week, usually on Wednesday mornings. Midland brand weather alert radios (and perhaps others) keep track of how long it’s been since they received an alert signal, including the weekly test. Midland designed the radios so that if more than 10 days elapse without an alert, the radios begin beeping, to alert owners of a possible problem. The warning goes away as soon as the radio receives any kind of alert, including the next weekly test.

The problem should resolve itself Wednesday morning when the next weekly test occurs. Owners of Midland weather radios who don’t want to wait that long can follow the procedure below, taken from an FAQ page on Midland’s website. Users should take note, however, that following the procedure below will erase all programming in the radio. That means the radio will need to be reprogrammed to alert only for specific counties. Any users who lack confidence in their abilities to program their radios might be better off just ignoring the beeping until Wednesday’s test.

Why does my weather radio have a “Check Reception” message scrolling across the screen and it beeps every 10 minutes?

The message and beep tone indicate that the radio has not received any weather alerts or test alerts in 10 days. If NOAA is forced to skip the weekly test and no alerts have been issued, the message can appear on the display.

To clear the message and beep you will need to reset the radio. To reset the radio, unplug the power cord and remove the batteries. Wait 15 seconds and reinsert the power cord and batteries. Once the radio has been reset the time will need to be programmed.

SKYWARN

Winter outlook for Indiana: Drier, warmer than normal

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2015-2016 U.S. Winter Outlook precipitation map
NOAA image

The coming winter will likely be drier and warmer than normal in Indiana, according to the winter outlook that the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued yesterday.

2015-2016 U.S. winter outlook temperature map
NOAA image

This year’s El Niño (annual warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru) is among the strongest on record. Forecasters expect it to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” CPC deputy director Mike Halpert said in a news release. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”

The seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms might hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strengths and tracks of winter storms, which forecasters can generally not predict more than a week in advance.

SKYWARN

Tornado season begins

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NWS northern Indiana tornado climatology graphic
NWS northern Indiana climatology graphic

Tornado season has begun. No, really.

In northeastern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and southern Lower Michigan, more tornadoes happen in October than in all but three other months (see graph above).

So, even though spring is the peak season for severe weather, it’s a good idea for storm spotters to review their training at this time of year.

A good way to do that is to go through the online spotter training at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23.

Even if you’ve already been through the online and live training, it’s probably been a while and we had a slow spring severe weather season that provided few opportunities to practice spotter skills.

Make sure you’re ready for October.

SKYWARN

A call for responsibility in weather journalism

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What would you assume when you read a tweet from a mainstream news outlet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon?”

That’s what “MLive Lansing” (the Twitter account of the “Ann Arbor News” and other Michigan newspapers) tweeted this afternoon (see tweet above).

Look at the 12:30 p.m. EDT “Day 1 Convective Outlook” from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) — a very trustworthy source of weather information. It indicates that the Lansing area has a two percent probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point (see outlook map below). The SPC considers two percent a “marginal risk.” That’s less than a “slight risk.”

U.S. map showing probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:24 p.m. EDT.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Green shading: 2% (marginal risk). Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:24 p.m. EDT.

To put it numerically, the normal probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the Lansing area on this date is approximately 0.20 percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Granted, today’s two percent probability is 10 times that climatology figure. But still, does a marginal risk support a tweet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon”?

I think not. Most readers, seeing a tweet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon,” will assume that more than one tornado is at least a strong possibility. The SPC outlook certainly indicates otherwise.

Poor journalism is rampant on social media, especially from amateur meteorologists. One of my favorite weather bloggers calls these folks “weather weenies.” I don’t expect such folks to even know what journalistic best practices are. Some of them aren’t even out of middle school yet!

Mainstream news outlets like MLive, however,  should try to separate themselves from the weather weenies of the world, but adhering to strict journalistic best practices, on Twitter and elsewhere.

 

SKYWARN

Some uncertainty, but Ind. has slight risk of severe storms Wednesday

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Indiana map showing Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. EDT Wed., Aug. 19 and 8 a.m. EDT Thurs.
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. EDT Wed., Aug. 19 and 8 a.m. EDT Thurs.

The entire state of Indiana and parts  of other states (including Michigan and Ohio) have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all of the area covered by IMO SKYWARN.

The text of the outlook, however, indicates considerable uncertainty, in part because computerized numeric models of the atmosphere do not agree on how fast certain weather features will move. Storms along and ahead of a forecast cold front, however, will likely pose at least an “isolated/low-end risk” for severe straight-line wind and/or hail, according to the outlook.

Despite the uncertainty, SPC forecasters indicated that within the slight risk area (shaded in yellow on the map above), the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of any point is 15 percent. The normal probability in most of Indiana at this time of year is around two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, so that makes Wednesday’s probability about 7.5 times normal. Forecasters expect probabilities to change, however, in subsequent outlooks, as Wednesday draws near.

It would be wise for SKYWARN storm spotters in the area, as well as anyone who is concerned about severe weather, to monitor those outlooks.

The SPC’s next outlook for the period comes early tomorrow morning, when it issues the first of two day-two outlooks.

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NWS to discuss possible changes to watch, warning and advisory system

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NWS infographic with definitions of warning, watch, advisory and outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) Analyze, Forecast and Support Office will host a workshop in Kansas City in October to discuss possible changes to the NWS watch, warning and advisory (WWA) system.

Workshop participants will review the results of surveys that provide insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the current WWA system, along with possible opportunities for system improvement.

The NWS intends to make any proposed changes to the WWA system available for public comment and review prior to any final decision on implementation.

The NWS is targeting this workshop at NWS staff members, emergency managers, members of America’s weather and climate industry, and social and behavioral scientists. Space is limited and participants will be selected on a first-come, first-served basis. A registration for is at https://ocwws.weather.gov/meetings/login.php?id=110.

While I don’t intend to attend the workshop, I’m eager to learn what comes of it. The WWA system has been around for a long time, yet members of the general public continue to display confusion about the differences between watches and warnings. Further, I frequently see evidence of citizens ignoring severe thunderstorm warnings because they’re not tornado warnings, despite the fact that a severe thunderstorm can deliver winds that are stronger than a weak tornado.

And ever since the 2012 derecho event that did so much damage from the Midwest to the east coast with straight-line winds, I’ve wondered if we need a new kind of thunderstorm warning, with a wind threshold that’s higher than 50 knots (58 mph).

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