Category Archives: SKYWARN

SKYWARN

Newspaper article examines lack of Peru tornado warning

The National Weather Service (NWS) never issued a tornado warning for Peru July 10, where a brief EF-1 tornado did significant structural damage. In a recent article in the Kokomo Tribune, NWS warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis explains the two reasons the Northern Indiana office didn’t issue a tornado warning:

First, he said, weather radars didn’t clearly indicate there was tornado activity in the area. Second, there were no reliable reports of a tornado from trained spotters on the ground.

Lewis reminded Tribune readers, however, that the NWS had issued a severe thunderstorm warning and that people should not ignore such warnings.

“… a severe thunderstorm warning issued, which means there was the potential for life-threatening conditions,” he said. “You don’t have to have a tornado to get tornado-like damage. High winds can be just as bad.”

Tribune reporter Carson Gerber did a pretty good job on the story. Check it out.

SKYWARN

Spotters protect quadrant during July storms

A line of severe thunderstorms came through northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio July 10. When the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch at 12:31 p.m. EDT, IMO SKYWARN went into standby mode on the 146.88 MHz ACARTS repeater. By the time the operation ended at 3:28 p.m., 35 stations had participated in the operation, representing the following counties: Allen (Ind.), Allen (Ohio), Blackford, Huntington, Noble, Whitley and Van Wert. IMO SKYWARN received 12 reports, which were relayed via telephone to the National Weather Service office in North Webster.

In quadrant two, the system dropped some hail and did straight-line wind damage, including blowing down trees and power lines. Most of those reports came from Blackford, Jay and Van Wert Counties.

This is the same storm system that briefly dropped an EF1 tornado on Peru, which is in IMO SKYWARN quadrant three. What happened in Peru emphasized the value of the 35 stations who were involved in the quadrant two operation. The National Weather Service did not receive any reports of the Peru storm damage until hours after it occurred – and well after the same storm system had passed through quadrant two. With 35 stations available during a weekday, I’m confident that the NWS would have heard about such damage much sooner, had it been on our area. Keep up the good work!

Online training still available

Photo of a funnel cloud look alike over the Fort Wayne area in March, 2013.
This funnel cloud look-alike appeared over Fort Wayne in March, 2013. Training helps spotters tell the difference between rain shafts like this and true funnel clouds.

While we can be proud that so many hams show up and are ready to report when severe weather threatens, some of those well-meaning hams might not have recently received National Weather Service spotter training. Training is important for many reasons. It helps you know what to look for and how not to be fooled by “look-alike” phenomena that doesn’t represent danger. Most importantly, it helps you know how to remain safe while serving as a storm spotter.

Online independent study storm spotter training became available this year. It’s easy to use and very informative. In July, the National Weather Service informed me that 32 Allen County (Ind.) residents have completed the online training. Of those, 12 are licensed ham radio operators: K9JDF, KB9WWN, KA9IPA, KB9WWM, KC9CGN, KC9EZP, KC9HIY, KC9MUT, N9MEL, N9UKE, W9GGA and W9LW. If you’ve completed the online training but aren’t on that list, contact me at w9lw@arrl.net and I’ll put you in touch with the appropriate person at the National Weather Service. If you’re one of the hams who participate in SKYWARN operations but have not taken the new online spotter training course, I strongly urge you to complete the training. You can find it at this URL: http://ow.ly/nryDX.

SKYWARN hams program weather radios

Photo of N9TB and KC9MUT programming weather radios at a Walgreens store
Tom Baker, N9TB (left) and Charles Ward, KC9MUT, help visitors to a Walgreens store program their new weather radio.

In my June and July columns for Allen County HamNews, I forgot to mention that several local hams provided a valuable public service in late May, by helping people program the Specific Area Message Encoding (SAME) decoders on their NOAA Weather Radios. Properly configured radios reduce the incentive to turn off weather radios that would otherwise activate for warnings affecting distant areas. Several organizations hosted the weather radio programming events, including Walgreens, Kroger, WANE-TV and the Allen County Department of Homeland Security. One event occurred at a Walgreens on West Jefferson Blvd and the other happened a few days later at the Kroger on Dupont Road. The following hams volunteered their time at one or both of the events: Tom Baker, N9TB; Jim Moehring, KB9WWM; Joseph Lawrence, K9RFZ; Tom Rupp, KU8T; Charles Ward, KC9MUT; and Jay Farlow, W9LW. Together they programmed a total of more than 100 weather radios.

SKYWARN
NWS Infographic.

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office published the infographic above along with the information below:

Hot and muggy conditions will remain this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to spark the development of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the area later this evening, most likely after 8 pm EDT. There remains a slight risk for a few of these storms to be strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threat. This threat will be highly conditional depending on whether or not the storms can organize before instability is lost as the sun sets. Cooler, less humid air will move in behind the front with highs in the 80s for the weekend. For the latest advisory and forecast information see our website at www.weather.gov/iwx.

SKYWARN

IWX: Severe weather looking less likely

The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be between 8 p.m. EDT and midnight across the northern part of the forecast area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office (e.g. north of the Indiana and Ohio toll roads). That’s according to an Area Forecast Discussion that the office issued at 4:29 p.m.

Atmospheric conditions that support storm development are on their way, especially the upward forcing provided by a cold front and a strong change in wind speeds with altitude. But by the time those conditions get to the office’s forecast area, the atmosphere will have become more stable, as it usually does as temperatures fall in the evening. If instability is insufficient by the time the cold front arrives, we might get rain but no severe storms. If severe storms do form, the main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

SKYWARN

Local NWS office writes Facebook update on storm possibilities

NWS logo

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office posted the following message on its Facebook page at 4:14 p.m. EDT:

“We’re in “wait and see” mode here at the office this afternoon. The atmosphere is unstable enough to support thunderstorms but not much has developed so far. The main cold front is still draped back in western WI to central Iowa. We will be watching that closely as it moves southeast into the area later this evening. If storms do fire along the cold front, there is a possibility that some could be strong to severe with damaging winds as the main threat. We will continue to monitor the situation as time goes on and will keep you posted!”

SKYWARN

Severe risk remains same in afternoon outlook

Categorical map from afternoon Day 1 Convective Outlook

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook at 3:51 p.m. EDT but it contains no changes from the midday version of the outlook. Northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and lower Michigan remain at slight risk of severe weather between 4 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

SKYWARN

Slight changes to severe outlook at midday

Probability maps from 12:30 p.m. Day 1 Convective Outlook
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Top map: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. Middle map: Probability of one inch diameter or larger hail. Bottom map: Probability of a tornado. Learn more about probability numbers.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) made slight changes to the geography of severe weather risk areas in the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook it issued at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

A slight risk of severe weather continues for northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and most of lower Michigan between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Damaging straight-line winds and hail remain the primary threats, with a 15 percent probability of each. The southern edge of the risk area, however, moved slightly north. As as result, the following counties covered by the northern Indiana NWS office are now outside the risk area: Grant, Blackford, Jay, southern Adams, southern Wells and southern Allen (Ohio).

Other changes include the reduction of the damaging wind probability for southern Michigan from 30 percent to 15 percent and the removal of Indiana and Ohio from the two percent risk of tornado.

Apart from the changes above, the situation remains pretty much the same as described in my earlier blog post.

SKYWARN

Fort Wayne weather radio transmiter crippled for foreseeable future

View of NOAA Weather Radio transmitting antenna
(NWS Northern Indiana photo)

This morning, the northern Indiana National Weather Service office put out the public information statement below. For more on exactly what the problem is at the Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio transmitter site, see my previous blog post on the topic (complete with cool pictures!).

With severe weather possible today and tonight, now would be a good time to check your weather radio to see if you can hear the broadcast. If you’re not close to northwestern Fort Wayne, there’s a very good chance you can’t hear it. If you can’t hear it now, your radio will probably not alert you to any watches or warnings that might come out. In that case, you’ll need an alternative way to get those alerts, for example:

  • Install a weather alert app on your smartphone. I’m fond of iMap Weather Radio, even though it’s not free. It’s only $9.99 and is available in iOS and Android versions. I receive no financial gain from sales of this app.
  • Sign up for a text message (SMS) alert service. These require a cell phone with text messaging service but it need not be a smartphone. Some of which I know include:
  • Keep a local television or radio station playing within earshot.
  • Monitor a local ham radio spotter frequency (can be tuned in on any standard police scanner). The frequency for Fort Wayne is 146.88 MHz (146.76 MHz alternate).

Got other suggestions or questions? Use the comment link below. 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 /1002 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013/

...FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST TO REMAIN ON LOW POWER 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

THE FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST...WXJ-58 AT 162.550 
MHZ...WILL CONTINUE TO BROADCAST AT LOW POWER FOR THE FORESEEABLE 
FUTURE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE LOW POWER AND DEGRADED 
SIGNAL ISSUES THAT THE TRANSMITTER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE 
PAST FEW WEEKS. HOWEVER...EXACT ARRIVAL TIMES ARE UNKNOWN AND 
INSTALLATION WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED WITH MAINTENANCE CREWS 
DURING A WINDOW OF FAIR WEATHER. 

WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. FURTHER UPDATES 
WILL BE ISSUED AS MORE DETAILS BECOME AVAILABLE.
SKYWARN

Straight-line wind, hail damage possible today & tonight

Wind, hail and tornado probability maps from Day 1 Convective Outlook
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Top map: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. Middle map: Probability of one inch diameter or larger hail. Bottom map: Probability of a tornado. Learn more about probability numbers.

See an update to this post.

The Northern third of Indiana, the northwestern quarter of Ohio, all of lower Michigan and large parts of Illinois and Indiana (see maps at left) have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:45 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, except Blackford and Jay Counties.

In northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, including counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two (again, except Blackford and Jay), there’s a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher or one-inch-diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of any point in the risk area. In the identified parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, there’s a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point. Learn more about these probability numbers.

Thunderstorms are forecast develop in northwestern Indiana during the mid to late afternoon hours today, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at  4:59 a.m. EDT. Those storms should shift southeastward across far northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional storms might develop later tonight, as a cold front gets closer.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight. Because Three Rivers Festival is going on in downtown Fort Wayne, prompt spotter reports of wind damage and hail 10 to 15 miles upwind of downtown Fort Wayne will be particularly important (so there’s time to get warnings to the people downtown).

The SPC will update the Day 1 Convective Outlook at around 12:30 p.m. EDT. As my workload permits, I’ll post updated information on this blog throughout the day.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather today

Wind probability map from Day 1 Convective Oultook.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

The Northern third of Indiana, the northwestern quarter of Ohio, all of lower Michigan and large parts of Illinois and Indiana (see map at left) have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:52 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, except Blackford and Jay Counties.

The largest risk is damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher but there’s also a risk of hail of one inch diameter or larger and a smaller risk of a tornado.

Thunderstorms will develop in northwestern Indiana during the mid to late afternoon hours today, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at  4:59 a.m. EDT. Those storms should shift southeastward across far northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional storms might develop later tonight, as a cold front gets closer.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight.

The SPC will update the Day 1 Convective Outlook at around 9 a.m. and I’ll post a more detailed message to this blog after that update comes out.

Regarding the Day 2 Convective Outlook, the latest version of the product no longer indicates a severe weather risk in Indiana for the period from 8 a.m. EDT Saturday to 8 a.m. EDT Sunday. A slight risk remains in place for that period, however, for most of Ohio.