Category Archives: SKYWARN

Meteorologists concerned about snowfall forecast

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued an Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon that reveals meteorologists thinking about the coming winter storm. Here are some highlights (translating contractions as necessary):

“Concerns loom that models are not capturing full potential of the system and that much more snow could occur than presently forecast as well as track further northwest.”

“At this time the highest is confined to southeastern half of the (office’s forecast) area but as noted genuine concerns that this axis could be shifted northwest.”

“Travel Sunday into Monday will likely become difficult if not impossible especially in rural areas where significant drifting will occur.”

Winter Storm Watch issued for Sat. night and Sunday

Winter storm watch map infographic

NWS Infographic on coming winter weather

 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014



...INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. GREATER CONCERN LIES
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS FROM ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING TO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

AS WINDS INCREASE AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES...WIND CHILLS WILL
QUICKLY DROP BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO DURING THE WATCH PERIOD. VALUES
IN THE 30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

INZ006>009-015>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-040015-
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.A.0001.140105T0600Z-140106T0600Z/
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-
BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...
ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...
GARRETT...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...
MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...COLDWATER...
BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...
NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...
MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
1109 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

* ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIFTING SNOW MAY CAUSE ALL ROADWAYS TO BECOME
PARTIALLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.

* VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS BOTH IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Winter Weather Advisory extended until 6 p.m.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
257 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...LIGHT SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...

.LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH...RESULTING
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL KEEP ROADS SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK.

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO PIVOT INTO FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR
WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST LAPORTE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND FAR SOUTHWEST BERRIEN COUNTY IN MICHIGAN.

INZ004>009-014-016>018-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
022300-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-140102T2300Z/
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-MARSHALL-
KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...
WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...
SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...COLDWATER...BRONSON...
HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...
WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...
HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS
257 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

* ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH.

* NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

IMPACTS...

* ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...SLICK...AND HAZARDOUS. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

INZ013-015-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ024-025-022300-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-140102T2300Z/
PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
ROCHESTER...AKRON...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT...
ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
257 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

* ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH.

* NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

IMPACTS...

* ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...SLICK...AND HAZARDOUS. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Trained weather spotters remain important during winter weather

(From the January, 2014 issue of “Allen County HamNews.”)

Title screen from "Measuring Snow" video

We often focus on thunderstorms and related weather when we consider the role of SKYWARN spotters. But reports of winter weather from trained spotters are also important to the National Weather Service. For that reason, NWS has made available via the Web a 23-minute instructional video, “Measuring Snow.” It turns out that making accurate reports of winter precipitation is more involved than you might think.

Not every part of your back yard is appropriate for snow measurements, so the video begins with a discussion of how to decide where to place equipment, including a snow board. For example, the video explains why your deck or patio is not the best place to measure snow.

The video explains how to capture snow in a rain gauge and a good way to melt the captured snow so you can report a water equivalent (the NWS considers this to be among the most important information you can report).

The video also discusses the measurement of new snowfall and total depth and explains why measurements taken on grassy surfaces are usually inaccurate.

The largest enemy of accurate snow measurements is wind. In high-wind conditions, gauges often catch less than the total amount of snow that fell. For such cases, the video explains how to take a core sample to get a more accurate reading of precipitation.

These are just a few of the issues the video covers. If you’d like to help the National Weather Service this winter by providing accurate winter precipitation measurements, I strongly encourage you to view the video before you make a report. You can find it at http://tinyurl.com/md3yd9n.

By the way, have you ever wondered how NWS decides whether to issue a Winter Storm Warning? The official criteria is, “Combination of any winter warning hazards, including significant blowing and drifting snow below blizzard conditions (lesser amounts may be warranted especially if significant mixed precipitation in an early or late season event).” You can read the criteria for all winter weather products (including advisories, watches and warnings) here: http://tinyurl.com/n3dox2j.

Do NOAA Weather Radios (NWR) sound off when NWS issues a Winter Storm Warning? It depends. The official list of products that warrant NWR alerts is available online here: http://tinyurl.com/kffp9bl. You’ll note that many products, including Winter Storm Warnings, prompt NWR alerts “at forecaster discretion or in response to customer demand” (including the requirements of emergency managers and broadcasters as outlined in local and state Emergency Alert System plans).

Finally, by the time you read this, annual SKYWARN spotter training sessions will be less than two months away. This is therefore a great time to complete the free online spotter training course provided by The COMET Program. Or, if you’ve already completed the online training, it’s a good time to review the modules. That way, you’ll have all the background you need for the upcoming group training sessions. You can find the modules here: http://tinyurl.com/3z5l4lb.

NWS tweets: Another snow storm possible Sunday, record cold coming

Another Snowstorm Sunday? Our forecast area could see another major snowstorm. A lot can change before now and (cont) pic.twitter.com/EMl9D6NPfm

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 2, 2014

then. Snowfall totals may be as little as a few inches or as much as a foot depending on the track. Stay tuned!

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 2, 2014

The bigger story will be record breaking cold on Monday and Tuesday #coldoutbreak

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 2, 2014

Our current forecast has HIGH temperatures struggling to rise above zero on Monday and Tuesday #coldoutbreak

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 2, 2014