At 10:27 p.m. EST, the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an updated Winter Storm Watch, which reads pretty much the same as previous versions, with one small exception. The latest version of the watch (see below) reduces the maximum snowfall forecast by an inch to a storm total of nine inches. As for when or if the NWS might replace the watch with a warning, meteorologists say they’ll take another look at the situation during the overnight shift to decide whether the change the snowfall forecast and whether or when to upgrade the watch to a warning.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1027 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
...WINTER STORM DEVELOPING...
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1...TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST TO EAST ROADWAYS.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...DEPENDING ON THE STORMS EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY EVENING.
* TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OF 5 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MONTICELLO TO DEFIANCE LINE...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
* AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
* INCREASING NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING... PRIMARILY ON EAST TO WEST ROADS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) published the above inforgraphic this afternoon to communicate meteorologists’ latest thoughts on the magnitude of the incoming winter storm. As you can see, they’ve revised the snowfall forecast to four to seven inches for much of the forecast area and seven to 10 inches for the remainder of the area. The dividing line appears to go from southwest to northeast right through the center of Allen County. The NWS tweeted that forecasters will be looking at latest computer model runs this evening and tonight and might thereafter issue additional updates to the winter storm watch. The latest version of the watch appears below.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 326 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
...WINTER STORM DEVELOPING...
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...DEPENDING ON THE STORMS EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
* INCREASING NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING... PRIMARILY ON EAST TO WEST ROADS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
The NWS Spotter training planned for 6:30 pm Tuesday at Notre Dame has been cancelled due to impending weather. Please pass this along. — NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) February 3, 2014
We cannot host a spotter training during a winter storm while we urge people to stay off the roads in our forecast products. — NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) February 3, 2014
Continue to monitor the NWS webpage and social media for information about the rescheduled date for the Notre Dame spotter talk. — NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) February 3, 2014
A National Weather Service meteorologist just advised that they have high confidence that northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio will receive at least six inches of snow from Tuesday’s storm (the one for which they issued a Winter Storm Watch this morning). Confidence this morning is low to moderate that we’ll get the higher amounts around 10 inches.
See an update regarding NWS confidence levels in the snowfall forecast
See the NWS infographic above for a synopsis of the current storm forecast. For details, see the full Winter Storm Watch statement below. Note that the forecast snowfall amounts are still subject to change, based on the storm’s actual track and strength. Remember, a Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Residents of the watch area should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 441 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
...WINTER STORM DEVELOPING...
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...DEPENDING ON THE STORM'S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW OVERSPREADS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
* TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE
* AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
* DIFFICULT MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING
* INCREASING NORTH WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CAUSE DRIFTING...PRIMARILY ON EAST TO WEST ROADS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 542 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
...WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW TAPERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF A FARTHER NORTH STORM TRACK VERIFIES...A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS EARLY STAGES AND LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS...AS FORECAST DETAILS BECOMING FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.
SKYWARN spotter training presented by the Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service is scheduled to begin Tuesday, Feb. 4, in South Bend, with additional sessions at other locations planned for the following several weeks. The possibility exists that winter weather might force NWS to cancel one or more of the planned sessions. Recently, the NWS sent an email message to those who have pre-resgistered for a training session, to describe plans for communicating such cancelations. If you have not pre-registered for a training session, doing so here will assue that you will receive email notification, should weather force cancelation of that session. Below is an excerpt of the email message that NWS sent to people who have already registered:
In the event that weather creates hazardous conditions, the National Weather Service may decide to cancel the Spotter Training.
At this time there does not appear to be any reason to think that the event will be cancelled; however, if public safety is a concern, we will work with the local Emergency Management Agency to get the word out as soon as possible.
Check your e-mail (Notification will be sent to your registration e-mail)
Regarding the reference to last night’s thoughts, see the blog post I published last night. As usual, the above-referenced forecast discussion is quite technical, but the way I read it, the gist is that there is still some disagreement between computer forecast models regarding whether the storm will bring all snow to the entire 37-county forecast area, or whether the southeastern portion of the forecast area (e.g., Jay, Blackford, Grant, Wells, Adams and Allen Counties of Indiana and Van Wert County, Ohio) will see mixed precipitation. Also, the discussion indicates that a winter storm watch might be needed by early Monday morning.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOW. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
