Probabilities of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Green area: 2%. Brown area: 5%.

Probabilities of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Pink area: 45%. Red area: 30%. Yellow area: 15%. Brown area: 5%. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts of 65 knots (75 mph) or greater within 25 miles of a point. Read more about probabilities.

The risk of severe thunderstorms in most of northern Indiana remains below the “slight” category between 7 a.m. EST today and 7 a.m. EST tomorrow, according to a Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 5:13 a.m. EST.

The southern half of Indiana, however, has a slight risk of severe weather during that period, including a two percent to five percent probability of a tornado and a 15 percent to 30 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Northern Indiana, including the 37 counties covered by the northern Indiana NWS office, has a five percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point (see maps at right).

According to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:20 a.m. EST, flooding and strong winds are possible today. A flood watch remains in effect because locally heavy rain and melting snow might lead to excessive runoff into low-lying areas, streams and creeks. Read the latest flood watch statement.

After a strong cold front moves through this afternoon or evening, NWS expects a period of strong, southwesterly winds of 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. That’s why the office issued a Wind Advisory at 3:13 a.m. EST. Read the complete Wind Advisory.

Although the northern Indiana NWS office does not expect that today’s weather will require activation of SKYWARN spotters, the office wrote in its Hazardous Weather Outlook that it will appreciate any reports of flooding. If you’re a spotter, you can make such reports via telephone (to the unlisted spotter number), Twitter (@NWSIWX) or on the office’s Facebook page.

Brown area: 5% probability (less than “slight” risk) of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Yellow: 15%. Red: 30%. Hatched area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather (F2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or large hail 2″ or greater in diameter.)

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a revised Day 2 Convective Outlook at 12:11 p.m. EST which removes northern Indiana from tomorrow’s slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

In the new Outlook, no part of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two has a 30 percent probability of severe weather tomorrow. Jay and Blackford Counties, however, continue to have a 15 percent probability of severe weather.

Since early this morning, the SPC has determined that the substantial snow pack that remains across parts of northern Illinois, southern lower Michigan and northern Indiana and Ohio will limit severe weather potential north of the I-70 corridor by creating a stable layer of air near the surface, limiting buoyancy and the ability to form the strong updrafts needed for severe thunderstorms.

In addition, the new Outlook adds an area of significant severe weather that includes some of the southern-most Indiana counties and the western half of Kentucky. The SPC defines significant severe weather as F2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or large hail 2″ or greater in diameter.

Meanwhile, a risk of flooding remains in place for northern Indiana, southern lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio.

Green depicts area covered by flood watch.

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office issued a flood watch this morning for its entire 37-county forecast area. The watch is in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night. The watch means there is a potential for flooding and that flood warnings might be necessary later. The verbatim watch statement appears below.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1128 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014

...FLOODING POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.RAIN ON THURSDAY COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW WILL BRING A RISK FOR
FLOODING TO MANY AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LONGER
DURATION RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD TAKE TIME TO
PREPARE NOW AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SNOW AND ICE CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND CONTAINS A LARGE QUANTITY OF
STORED WATER...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 4.0 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GREATEST WATER CONTENT IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOW DEPTHS REMAIN OVER A FOOT AND
CLOSER TO TWO FEET IN SOME AREAS. MELTING HAS ALREADY BEGUN WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WATER RUNOFF FROM THE COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT OVER A
DEEPLY FROZEN GROUND WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...BASEMENTS...SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO COVERED IN THICK ICE WHICH MAY BREAKUP
AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR ICE JAMS AND RAPIDLY RISING WATER. THIS WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE LOCAL FLOODING POTENTIAL NEAR THESE BODIES
OF WATER.

STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY
VISITING WEATHER.GOV/IWX OR LISTENING TO LOCAL MEDIA BROADCASTS.


INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-200030-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FA.A.0001.140220T1200Z-140221T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
1128 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014 /1028 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST
  MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...
   DE KALB...ELKHART...FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...
  KOSCIUSKO...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...
  PULASKI...ST. JOSEPH IN...STARKE...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...
  WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN...BRANCH...
  CASS MI...HILLSDALE AND ST. JOSEPH MI. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
  ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...
  VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

* A COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND A DEEPLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH ARE LIKELY
  THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER COULD BE
  RELEASED FROM THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AS IT MELTS.

* MANY STORM DRAINS MAY BE BLOCKED BY DEEP SNOW AND WILL LIKELY
  LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE OF WATER DURING THIS EVENT. LOW LYING
  AREAS AND LOCATIONS WHERE FLOODING IS TYPICAL ARE ESPECIALLY
  VULNERABLE. DOWNSPOUTS AROUND HOMES MAY ALSO BE BLOCKED BY SNOW
  AND ICE AND COULD LEAD TO WATER BACKING UP IN AND AROUND HOMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

204 people attended SKYWARN spotter training at Columbia City High School Feb. 18. (NWS photo)

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) will supplement live spotter training sessions with online “chats” via Facebook and Twitter, following the schedule below. NWS is accepting questions in advance via a form on its website. It will also accept questions posted on its Facebook page and sent via Twitter. Tweeted questions should include “@NWSIWX” in the tweet.

Although NWS will post answers during the times specified below, you can read the answers by visiting the office’s Facebook and/or Twitter pages at your convenience. You don’t need a Facebook account or a Twitter account to read the answers, because both the Facebook page and Twitter page are viewable by the public. You do need a Facebook, account, however, if you wish to post questions via Facebook and you need a Twitter account if you wish to post questions via Twitter.

Here’s the schedule (all times are ET):