PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1013 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 /913 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014/
...NOAA WEATHER RADIO TEST POSTPONED...
TODAYS NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE POSTPONED DUE TO THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL RESCHEDULE THE
TEST FOR THURSDAY JUNE 19 BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON.
 |
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Red area: 30%. Yellow area: 15%. Remaining area: Less than 15%. Highlighted counties: Northern Indiana NWS office county warning area. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:54 a.m. EDT. Read about probability figures. |
The probability of damaging straight-line winds in northeastern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio today and tonight has increased, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:54 a.m. EDT.
For the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office, the outlook increases from 15 percent to 30 percent the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. A probability of 30 percent is on the high end of the “slight risk” category. You can get some detailed information what the probability figures mean on the SPC website, but here’s a brief explanation: If you consider that on a typical June 18, the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds occurring within 25 miles of you is probably one percent or less, the probability today is at least 30 times higher than on a typical day.
Don’t underestimate the damage potential of 58 mph straight-line winds! According to the Beaufort Wind Scale, winds of 48 mph to 55 mph can uproot trees and cause considerable structural damage. So even though the risk of tornadoes today is low, it’s a good day to pay attention to weather watches and warnings.
See an important update to this story: Latest outlook increases wind risk
The northern three fourths of Indiana, as well as large areas of other states, have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:10 a.m.
The slight risk area includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.
In Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, the primary threats are damaging straight-line winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or more and hail of one inch in diameter or larger. The probability of either happening within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio is two percent. Read more about outlook probabilities.
The numbers are a little higher to the west. Parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakotas — while still in a slight-risk area — have a 30 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail and a five percent probability of a tornado.
SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon or tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:52 a.m.
Anyone in the slight risk area should have a way to be informed of any watches or warnings that the NWS issues today, especially if they are involved in outdoor activities.
The SPC will update its convective outlooks for today by 9 a.m. and again at 12:30 p.m., 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. EDT.
Thunderstorms, including severe storms, could develop in northern Indiana by 5 p.m. EDT, according to a “mesoscale discussion” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 2:58 p.m. EDT. The discussion indicated a 40 percent chance that a watch will be issued.
 |
| Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 12:30 p.m. today (June 17) and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Green area: General, non-severe thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 12:27p.m. |
Nearly all of the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) county warning area (CWA) now has a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:27 p.m. EDT. The following counties are the only ones in the CWA that are entirely out of the slight risk area: Grant, Blackford and Jay. An earlier version of the outlook excluded more counties on the south side of the CWA.
Damaging straight-line winds and hail remain the primary threats, but a short-lived tornado is also possible.
The severe storms are most likely this evening through the overnight hours, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 1:24 p.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight.
Our next update of the severe weather picture for this evening and tonight comes when the SPC issues an updated day one outlook by 4 p.m. EDT.
 |
| Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. today (June 17) and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Green area: General, non-severe thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 8:44 a.m. |
Extreme northern Indiana and nearby areas have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:44 a.m. today.
The slight risk area covers essentially the northern three quarters of the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office, or all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants one and four and the northern parts of quadrants two and three. Quadrant two counties included in the slight risk area today are Whitley, Allen (Ind.), Paulding and Putnam.
The primary threat in the slight risk area is damaging straight-line wind of 58 mph or more. Storms could affect the area as early as late this morning but they’re more likely from this afternoon into this evening.
The SPC will update its day one outlook by 12:30 p.m. and 4 p.m. today.
 |
| Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. tomorrow (June 18) and 8 a.m. Thursday. Green area: General, non-severe thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: Day 2 Convective Outlook issued at 1:33 a.m. |
The entire northern Indiana CWA has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. tomorrow and 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 1:33 a.m. today. Tomorrow’s slight risk area covers most of the northern half of Indiana and large parts of nearby states.
Forecasters expect widespread storms by late afternoon tomorrow from northern Illinois and Indiana into Pennsylvania and southern New York. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but the atmosphere will be also unstable enough for large hail.
The SPC will update its day two outlook by 1:30 p.m. EDT today. The subsequent update comes as tomorrow’s first day one outlook by 2 a.m. EDT.
If you’ll be in the slight risk areas today or tomorrow, plan to have a way to learn of any watches or warnings the NWS might issue, especially if you’ll be involved in outdoor activities, such as sporting events. Also have a plan for seeking safe shelter.
If you’re a SKYWARN storm spotter, be prepared for activation. Check your communications equipment, review reporting criteria, etc.
 |
| Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. Wednesday, June 18 and 8 a.m. Thursday, June 19. Green area: Thunderstorms, but not severe. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office. Source: Storm Prediction Center “Day 3 Convective Outlook.” |
The northern fourth of Indiana and parts of several nearby states have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, June 18 and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, June 19, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:24 a.m. EDT today.
The main threats will be damaging straight-line winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher and marginally severe hail of one inch in diameter.
As you can see on the map above, the slight risk area includes most of the Indiana, Michigan and Ohio counties that are in the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office. The only CWA counties completely outside the slight risk area are Grant, Blackford and Jay.
If you’re planning any outdoor activities in the slight risk area Wednesday, be sure you have some way of knowing about any storm watches or warnings that the NWS might issue. Also be sure you have identified safe shelter nearby.
If you’re a SKYWARN storm spotter, fuel up your vehicle and charge up and check your communications equipment, so you’ll be ready for activation on Wednesday.
Risk areas often change as the outlook period nears. The SPC will issue its next outlook for the period by 2 a.m. tomorrow (the first of two “Day 2 Convective Outlooks” it will issue tomorrow). So check back tomorrow to see how the outlook might have changed.
If it seems that we haven’t had the usual amount of severe weather this spring, that’s because we haven’t! In fact, the low amount of severe weather this year in northeastern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio is nudging records, as you can see in the tweet below from the local National Weather Service office:
YTD, we’ve only issued 22 severe thunderstorm warnings. That’s a new record low since office opened in 1998! pic.twitter.com/uYIMU7WUZK
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) June 13, 2014
More showers expected today. Could see a lull in activity this morning-early afternoon before another round moves across the area.
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) June 11, 2014
A few rumbles of thunder will not be out of the question this afternoon but severe weather is not expected.
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) June 11, 2014
In mid-May, NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Michael Lewis sent an email message to spotters with the graphic above, to remind them of the best ways to report various severe weather phenomena. He also asked spotters to review the following Web pages: