Category Archives: SKYWARN

SKYWARN

Update on thunderstorm line moving through northern Indiana

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Here’s an update from a NWS Northern Indiana meteorologist, as of 9:54 p.m. EDT. Regarding the line of storms currently moving through north central Indiana, the best severe threat looks to remain along and north of the U.S. 6 corridor. However, meteorologists are keeping an eye on a second line of storms moving through northern Illinois. There is a currently a severe threat with that line, and they expect it to sustain into the area covered by the Northern Indiana NWS office. The best severe threat with the second line will exist in areas west of Interstate 69. There is also a localized flooding threat with this second line.

SKYWARN

Latest convective outlook removes moderate risk, significant winds

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Day 1 convective outlook map
Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher within 25 miles of a point. Red area: 30 percent. Yellow: 15 percent. Brown: five percent. See an explanation of the probabilities. Highlighted counties: county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: 9 p.m. EDT “Day 1 Convective Outlook.”

No part of the country has more than a slight risk of severe weather between 9 p.m. tonight and 8 a.m. tomorrow morning, according to the latest “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center at 9 p.m. EDT. In addition, the latest outlook removes the area of enhanced risk of “significant” severe winds (75 mph or greater) that previously covered parts of northwestern Indiana.

The latest outlook indicates a 30 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater in the western half of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the 30 percent probability area includes only the northwestern part of Whitley County. The remainder of Whitley County has a 15 percent probability, as does All of the Indiana counties of Allen, Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay. In quadrant two’s Ohio counties, all of Paulding and the western half of Van Wert have a 15 percent probability. The remainder of the quadrant has a five percent probability (less than “slight risk”). See an explanation of probabilities.

SKYWARN

NWS northern Indiana office issues updated “Hazardous Weather Outlooks”

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued updated “Hazardous Weather Outlooks” at 5:03 p.m. EDT. It used slightly different wording for two parts of its 37-county warning area.

Regarding IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the outlook reads as follows for Whitley and Huntington Counties:

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

For the remainder of quadrant two, including Allen County, Indiana, the outlook reads,

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
SKYWARN

PDS severe thunderstorm watch for northwestern, north central Indiana until 10 p.m. EDT

Severe thunderstorm watch map

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   335 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
     NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
     SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
     EASTERN WISCONSIN
     LAKE MICHIGAN

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
     900 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
       MPH LIKELY
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF VALPARAISO
   INDIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 373...WW 374...

   DISCUSSION...FAR ERN IA DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   MAINLY E THROUGH EARLY TNGT. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER
   SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER NE IL/SE WI RELATIVE
   TO THAT OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. BUT GIVEN EXISTING STRENGTH OF
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE MEAN
   FLOW OVER NRN IL AS NW MO UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES...EXPECTED AN
   ORGANIZED BAND OF SVR STORMS TO CONTINUE E AT LEAST AS FAR AS LK MI.
   BACKING OF DEEP FLOW AHEAD OF MO IMPULSE...AND CONTINUED NWD SPREAD
   OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE...FURTHER SUGGEST THAT THE SQLN COULD BUILD A
   BIT FARTHER N INTO WI WITH TIME.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27045.
SKYWARN

Moderate risk area expands further into NW Indiana

Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of a point. Brown area: five percent. Yellow: 15 percent. Red: 30 percent. Purple: 45 percent (moderate risk) plus a 10 percent chance of “significant” gusts to 75 mph or greater. Highlighted counties: county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:33 p.m. EDT.

A larger portion of northwestern Indiana has a moderate risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:33 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the risk for IMO SKYWARN quadrant two did not change from the previous outlook.

The primary threat remains damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or stronger but there’s also a risk of one-inch or larger hail and an occasional tornado.

In quadrant two counties covered by the slight risk area, the probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point remain at 15 percent for winds of 58 mph or higher and one-inch or larger hail and two percent for a tornado.

The northwestern counties that are in the a moderate risk area have a 45 percent probability of 58 mph thunderstorm winds and a 10 percent probability of gusts to 75 mph or higher.

The next update to the convective outlook for today is due by 4 p.m. EDT.