Slightly more of northwestern Indiana now has a slight risk of severe weather, along with all of the rest of Indiana and parts of nearby states, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:29 p.m. EDT.

The only parts of Indiana not in the updated slight risk area are extreme northwestern Porter County and approximately the northern half of Lake County.

The threats are still damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hair, with probabilities of both remaining at 15 percent within 25 miles of a point.

Meteorologists expect the northern portion of a cluster of thunderstorms that were in Illinois and east-central Missouri at midday to develop northeastward and merge with another band of thunderstorms that was developing over southeastern Lake Michigan. That conglomeration of storms is forecast to move eastward across southern Lower Michigan, Indiana and Illinois through the afternoon. Atmospheric conditions should support organized multi-cell thunderstorm systems with accompanying risks for a few damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Meteorologists at the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service have slightly less confidence in the extent and/or coverage of severe weather in its 37-county warning area this afternoon and evening. An updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office issued at 10:57 a.m. EDT reflects this change. It reads, “Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.” The outlook that the office issued early this morning (4:47 a.m. EDT) reads, “Spotter activation will be likely by this afternoon.” The change from “will be likely” to “may be needed” reflects the change in confidence in the extent and/or coverage of today’s severe weather.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. http://t.co/5wd51Ex0bU

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) August 19, 2014

Above is an example of the the kind of information you can get from the Twitter feed of the northern Indiana National Weather Service Office.

Almost all of Indiana has a slight risk of severe storms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:16 a.m. EDT.

Threats

The primary threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and large hail of one inch or more in diameter, both of which have a 15 percent probability within 25 miles of a point anywhere in the slight risk area. Read more about the significance of outlook probabilities.  The tornado risk today is negligible, with less than a 2 percent probability.

Timing

The severe storms are most likely late this afternoon into early this evening.

Geography

The slight risk area includes all of Indiana except Lake County, most of Porter County and northern LaPorte County of northwestern Indiana. The slight risk area includes the entirety of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.

Preparation

Everyone who is in the slight risk area — especially those involved in outdoor activities this afternoon and evening — should ensure they have a way to know if the NWS issues a storm watch or warning.

SKYWARN storm spotters should make sure they and their gear are ready for activation, which is likely by this afternoon, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:47 a.m. EDT.

Updates

The SPC will issue an updated convective outlook by 12:30 p.m. EDT, which will be our next chance to know if the storm risk for today has changed.

As time permits, I will “live blog” the weather situation as it develops, but this is a work day for me and I have client expectations to meet, so do not rely on this blog as a primary information source.

The northern Indiana NWS office will use Twitter ( @NWSIWX ) and Facebook to keep residents updated.

To become immediately aware of watches and warnings, I recommend a weather alert radio or monitoring a local radio or TV station.

Approximately the southern two thirds of Indiana — including southern Allen County, Indiana — have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Aug. 19 and 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:30 p.m. EDT today.

Forecasters expect isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The strongest storms might include a few damaging wind gusts and large hail.

In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the slight risk area includes the southern third of Allen County (Ind.), all of Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay Counties, and southwestern Van Wert County.

We’ll get a more detailed look at the risk, including the probabilities of tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and large hail, when the SPC issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” for tomorrow, at about 2 a.m. EDT.

…PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING… PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING THIS MORNING…SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 9 AM EDT.
View the full statement on the NWS website.

I just wrote a letter to my congressman, Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.-3rd) to request his support of a bill in Congress that would make it easier for amateur radio operators like me to provide service to the general public, including through the National Weather Service SKYWARN program.

HR 4969 – the “Amateur Radio Parity Act of 2014” would direct the FCC to extend the “reasonable accommodation” provisions for amateur radio antennas to include all types of land-use regulation, including deed restrictions and restrictive covenants.

If enacted, HR 4969 would direct the FCC to extend the reasonable accommodation protections to those amateurs who live in deed-restricted communities. Known as “CC&Rs” (covenants, conditions and restrictions), these are the prohibitions and limitations placed on properties by builders or home-owner associations (HOAs) which prevent licensed amateur radio operators from erecting even modest antennas.

Below is the letter about HR 4969 that I sent today to Rep. Stutzman via the American Radio Relay League.

There is an old adage in the real estate business that the three most important factors in property value are location, location and location. As SKYWARN storm spotters, the way we report the locations of the severe weather we witness is equally important.

The National Weather Service (NWS) relays many of our reports in a text product it calls a “local storm report.” The way the NWS describes locations in LSRs is informative to spotters. Here’s an example LSR:

Notice how the LSR gives the location first by identifying the distance and compass direction from the center of the nearest town or village, then by county, then by state. The LSR might then mention a road intersection in the “remarks” section (but it does not always do so).

Whenever we make a spotter report to the NWS, if we don’t indicate our distance and direction from the center of the nearest town or village, some busy NWS staff member must figure that out. We can really help the NWS, therefore, by knowing where we are in relation to the nearest town or village and including that information in our reports.

I learn best by example. In case you’re like that, below are some actual spotter reports from an NWS transcript of a recent severe weather event, followed by an example of how the location information could have been more helpful:

Original report: Nearly quarter-size hail, SR 13 and South County Line Road.
More helpful: Kosciusko County, 1 mile north of Syracuse, intersection of state road 13 and the Kosciusko-Elkhart county line.

Original report: U.S. 33 and State Road 205, about 2 minutes Duration, Dime-size hail.
More helpful: Whitley County, in Churubusco, intersection of US 33 and SR 205.

Original report: State Road 427 at Allen-DeKalb county line. About 3 min of dime-size hail. Estimated 50-60 MPH winds. Heavy rain.
More helpful: DeKalb County, 7 miles south of Auburn, intersection of DeKalb County Road 427 and the Allen-DeKalb County line. (Side note: As spotters, we should try to remain aware of the correct and current names of the roads we are using. The road that runs between Fort Wayne and Auburn was once called “State Road 427” but ceased to be a state road years ago. In DeKalb County, it is now called “County Road 427” and in Allen County, it is correctly known as “Tonkel Road.” Because this spotter was at the county line, he could also have given his location as, “Allen County Indiana, 4.5 miles northwest of Leo-Cedarville, intersection of Tonkel Road and the Allen-DeKalb county line” (making the road and town name match the county name))

Original report: Edgerton Road and County Line Road, 1.5 minutes of dime-size hail and measured 57 mph winds.
More helpful: Allen County Indiana, 4 miles southeast of Woodburn, intersection of Edgerton Road and the Indiana-Ohio line. (Note: when at a county line, it is helpful to give the names of both counties to reduce ambiguity. If the county line is also a state line, identifying the state line is probably more helpful).

Original report: Pea-Size hail between Hamilton and Yoder roads on Smith Road. 1 min duration.
More helpful: Allen County Indiana, 1.5 miles northwest of Yoder, Smith Road between Hamilton Road and Yoder Road. (Alternatively, “2.5 miles south of Fort Wayne International Airport” might have been just as helpful at “1.5 miles northwest of Yoder.”)

As a spotter myself, I know it can be challenging to figure out how far I am “as the crow flies” from the nearest town, especially in the excitement of seeing a funnel cloud. But if you think it’s challenging from where you are, imagine what it must be like for a very busy NWS meteorologist, who is handling reports from any of 37 counties. I therefore offer these recommendations:

• When possible, pick a location from which to watch the skies and stay there. After you arrive, and before the weather gets severe, use a map to figure out the approximate distance and direction to the center of the nearest village, town or city. Many experienced spotters always spot from one of a few locations and therefore become familiar not only with how to describe those locations, but also how far away various visible landmarks are. This is good practice.
• If you’ve just moved to a location from which you haven’t spotted before, reportable weather is already there and you don’t have time to consult a map to see how far your are from, say, the center of East Joeville, take your best guess. Even an estimate will help, when combined with the county you’re in and a road intersection.
• If you’re spotting from inside the city limits of a large city like Fort Wayne, it’s probably more helpful to report your location as what part of town you’re in. For example, “Allen County Indiana, extreme northern Fort Wayne, intersection of Dupont Road and Coldwater Road” might make more sense than “Allen County, Indiana, 7 miles north of Fort Wayne, intersection of Dupont Road and Coldwater Road.” While that intersection is about 7 miles from the center of the city, some might infer from “7 miles north of Fort Wayne” that you’re outside of the city, when in fact that intersection is within the city.
• Include the intersection information. Even if NWS doesn’t need it, it is helpful to other spotters, broadcasters and emergency managers.
• Remember that the quadrant served by the 146.88 MHz repeater includes two Allen Counties; one in Indiana and one in Ohio. Therefore, whenever your location is in Allen County, include the state name. Even though it might be obvious to others on the frequency, it can be helpful to NWS staff members.

In case we forget to include our distance and direction from the center of the nearest town, I’ve asked IMO SKYWARN quadrant two  net control station (NCS) operators to request that information, when time permits. If the frequency is flooded with reports, there might not always be time for such inquiries, but NCS operators should ask whenever time permits and a spotter forgets to provide the information.

If you have comments about this, please use the comment link, found just under the article title. If you think other storm spotters will find this article helpful, please use one or more of the sharing buttons below.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BACK IN SERVICE...

SERVICE HAS BEEN RESTORED TO THE FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WXJ-58...ON 162.550 MHZ. WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service preliminarily plans to conduct live SKYWARN spotter training next year in Allen County, Indiana and five of the other nine counties that make up IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, according to an email message the NWS sent to county emergency managers. The NWS expects to have an improved budget beginning next year, which would allow it to schedule annual sessions in the most populated of the 37 counties of its county warning area (including Allen County, Ind. and Allen County, Ohio) and biennial sessions in other counties. Every county that hosts a biennial session has an adjacent “partner” county that it is also hosting.

Below is a list of other quadrant-two counties (in addition to the two Allen Counties) in which NWS plans to conduct live SKYWARN training in 2015 and their 2015 “partner” counties:

Of course, any interested person is welcome at any training session, regardless of where that person lives. The NWS will set exact dates for each training session later this year. The Allen County (Ind.) Office of Homeland Security plans to request the dates of the February or March ACARTS general meeting, but we don’t know yet if NWS work schedules will support those dates.

More information will appear on this blog as it becomes available.