Probability of any kind of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. tomorrow (Sep. 5) and 8 a.m. Sat. Brown area: 5 percent (below SPC “slight risk” criteria). White area: Less than 5 percent. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook” issued at 1:20 p.m. EDT.
Much of Indiana continues to have a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:20 p.m. EDT.
The probability of severe weather (5 percent) continued to fall below the SPC’s “slight risk” criteria. As you can see on the map above, the SPC adjusted that 5 percent area so that it no longer includes southern Indiana.
Our next look at the severe weather outlook for tomorrow comes when the SPC issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day tomorrow. It’s due out by 2 a.m. EDT.
Probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Fri., Sep. 5 and 8 a.m. EDT Sat. Brown area: 5 percent (below SPC “slight risk” criteria). White area: Less than 5 percent. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:26 a.m. EDT Sep. 4.
Meteorologists expect scattered thunderstorms in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office issued at 4:43 a.m. EDT. There is a low risk that some of those storms could be strong, with isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.
The NWS storm prediction center gave the area a 5 percent probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 12:26 a.m. EDT. Five percent is below SPC’s “slight risk” criteria, but the SPC indicated that if higher probabilities are needed in future outlooks, “it would seem to be areas of lower Michigan into perhaps northern Indiana or northwestern Ohio.”
The next outlook for tomorrow will be an updated SPC day two outlook, due out by 1:30 p.m. EDT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
501 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-031230-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
501 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 /401 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014/
...AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES AT
TIMES THIS MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHILE DRIVING AND BE
AWARE OF CHILDREN AT BUS STOPS...SCHOOL BUSES AND OTHER SLOWED OR
STOPPED TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe storms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Green area: Thunderstorms, not expected to be severe. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:52 a.m. EDT.
Almost all of Indiana and parts of neighboring states have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT.
The primary threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and large hail of one inch or more in diameter this afternoon and early evening.
With the exception of small parts of Laporte and Berrien Counties, the slight risk area includes all of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office and therefore all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.
SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed late this afternoon through early tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 6:05 a.m EDT.
Yellow area: slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Monday and 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Green area: Thunderstorms, not expected to be severe.
Much of northern Indiana — including all or parts of Whitley, Huntington, Wells and Allen Counties — have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Labor Day and 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 3:05 a.m. EDT.
Any severe storms that form could contain damaging straight-line winds or large hail.
SPC is monitoring the area inside the brown scalloped loop to determine with a severe weather watch will be necessary.
Thunderstorms crossing northern Indiana this afternoon might produce localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail, according to a “Mesoscale Discussion” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at1:49 p.m. EDT.
SPC meteorologists plan to monitor trends but at the time they issued the mesoscale discussion, they considered it unlikely that they would issue a watch.
Map from “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued by the SPC at 12:28 p.m. EDT. See text below for additional information.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are keeping their eyes on a possibly growing risk of severe weather in northern Indiana, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the SPC issued at 12:28 p.m. EDT.
A north-northeast- to south-southwest-oriented band of thunderstorms moving through the Chicagoland area as of 12 p.m. EDT exhibited some forward-propagating characteristics with isolated wind damage reported along its track. By afternoon, a subset of these storms will likely merge with a down-shear cluster of slower-moving thunderstorms ongoing over Indiana, according to the 12:28 p.m. outlook.
Daytime heating, coupled with the presence of a very moist boundary layer, will once again yield a strongly unstable air mass ahead of these storm clusters, with mixed-layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) approaching 3,500 to 4,500 joules per kilogram. And similar to yesterday, meteorologists expect storm motions to become more southerly with time, as activity is drawn into the backside of a mid-level high pressure system centered over the Ozarks. Vertical wind shear will once again remain weak, which should inhibit severe storm development. But the presence of the strong instability and high moisture content will foster intense water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging surface winds.
The 12:28 p.m. “Day 1 Convective Outlook” does not indicate any risk of severe weather in this area (or any other part of the country), but meteorologist might upgrade the area to a “slight risk” in the 4 p.m. EDT convective outlook update, if by then it is more apparent that an organized cold pool and associated greater severe threat will materialize.
Strong storms with gusty winds are especially likely south of the yellow line this afternoon.
Meteorologists expect scattered thunderstorms today in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio, but they do not anticipate widespread severe weather, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana National Weather Service office issued at 5:42 a.m.
Some storms, however, might contain strong, gusty winds, especially those that form this afternoon south of a line from Defiance, Ohio to Winamac, Indiana (below the yellow line in the map above).
