The forecast intensity of a winter storm Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is much weaker than earlier forecasting models suggested, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” issued this morning by the Northern Indiana National Weather Service office.

Forecaster Sam Lashley writes of two low pressure systems, the first of which would bring rain to the northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio area Monday afternoon in to Tuesday. Some forecast models suggest that a second low pressure system will develop behind the first one, but others disagree.

If the secondary system develops, the area could get more snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day than if it does not, but meteorologists remain quite uncertain about what will happen.

For now, the bottom line is:

• There is still a chance of snow on Christmas Eve.
• Uncertainty continues regarding the track and strength of the storm.
• As of this morning, it appears that any significant snow accumulation will miss the northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio areas.
• Things could still change, so anyone who has holiday travel plans should keep checking back with www.weather.gov and other reliable sources of weather information.

Confidence remains high on a strong winter storm in the Midwest and Great Lakes region next week, but the important details on storm track, precipitation type and snow amounts remain quite uncertain, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued early this morning.

Computer forecast models continue to “jump around with potential solutions,” writes meteorologist Sam Lashley.

As of this morning, Lashley expects mostly rain Monday night through Tuesday in his forecast area (northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio). Meteorologists remain uncertain about when and where that rain might change to snow and how much snow might fall, but as of this morning, snow is most likely Wednesday and Christmas Eve.

The “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued this morning advises readers that the storm could impact holiday travel and that they should “pay attention to later forecasts as details become more clear.”

Good advice. You can always get information directly from the NWS website (www.weather.gov) and as my personal time permits, I’ll continue to keep readers of this blog updated.

Hype is already underway about a possible winter storm next week, writes meteorologist Sam Lashley of the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) in an “Area Forecast Discussion” (AFD) issued this morning. But “a lot of uncertainty remains with respect to the very important and critical details of when and where this storm will create impacts,” the AFD continues.

A “cautious but informative approach” is warranted, given the six- to seven-day time frame, Lashley writes. He expects “numerous critical changes and deviations” in computer forecasting model solutions with each model iteration over the next several days.

Broad agreement among models does provide higher than normal confidence that a substantial storm system will impact some part of the eastern continental United States by Christmas. That said, “Confidence remains below normal on important details, such as the track, precipitation type and amounts,” Lashley writes.

He concludes with, “Any snow that does fall by Christmas will certainly create travel issues and have significant impacts due to blowing and drifting.” This remains worthy of mention in NWS Hazardous Weather Outlooks, but “restraint should be exercised for now in the forecasts of track and snow amounts given little skill at this time range.”

…SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING… RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SNOW…PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE TRAVELLING EARLY THIS MORNING…BE ALERT FOR SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS FROM LIGHT
View the full statement on the NWS website.

…PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING… AREAS OF FOG…DENSE IN SPOTS…WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
View the full statement on the NWS website.

…SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY… MOTORISTS MAY ENCOUNTER SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT DESPITE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. IF THE ROAD APPEARS WET…SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION…ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
View the full statement on the NWS website.

…FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
View the full statement on the NWS website.

…AREAS OF FREEZING FOG… FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK…FREEZING FOG MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON WALKWAYS AND ROADWAYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF MILE TO TWO
View the full statement on the NWS website.

…AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING… FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS…PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION…WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW THE
View the full statement on the NWS website.

If you thought 2014 was a quiet year for severe weather in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio, you were right.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) published today the two maps below, which show the total number of watches (severe thunderstorm and tornado combined) issued by the SPC through November 2014. The bottom map shows the departure from normal. As you can see, for most of the country, this year had a below-average number of watches issued, with a few spots above normal. The graphic is also available on the SPC website at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/.