I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.
The National Weather Service (NWS) northern Indiana office published this morning a preliminary summary of “local storm reports” from yesterday’s storms. Local storm reports include reports of funnel clouds, hail, wind damage, etc. Below are a few highlights (sorry about the capital letters — that’s how NWS publishes them and I don’t have time to change them). As you can see, the 37 counties covered by the northern Indiana office can be thankful that they escaped the kind of widespread damage seen in the June 29, 2012 storms.
38MPH SUSTAINED FOR 10 MIN WITH STRONGER GUSTS..SEVERAL 2 AND 4 INCH BRANCHES DOWN..SOME BRANCHES UP TO 15 FEET IN LENGTH..SHEET METAL REMOVED FROM BUILDING
Particularly dangerous situation (PDS) severe thunderstorm watches are very rare, so there’s a good chance you’ve never heard one before today. Want to know more about PDS watches? There’s a good article on Wikipedia.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LAKE ERIE LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF FINDLAY OHIO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center plans to issue a “particularly dangerous situation (PDS) severe thunderstorm watch” for the northern third of Indiana by 6 p.m. EDT, according to a mesoscale discussion the SPC issued at 4:38 p.m. EDT.
The SPC issues PDS severe thunderstorm watches when there is a threat of a high-end “derecho” with widespread wind damage.
According to the mesoscale discussion, thunderstorms developing across northeastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois will congeal into an accelerating convective system and move east-southeastward across northern Indiana during the late afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds, some in excess of 65 knots, (74.8 mph) are likely, along with embedded tornadoes.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued an updated Day One Convective Outlook at 4 p.m. EDT. The updated outlook continues to indicate a high risk for severe weather in the northern third of Indiana between 3 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow.
In the 4 p.m. update, SPC wrote that the threat for a significant, widespread damaging wind event still appeared to be on track from southern portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley region. Storms were in the process of developing from northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. These initial storms might organize as discrete supercells with an initial tornado threat. Storms should eventually consolidate and transition to an organized complex of thunderstorms (mesoscale convective system), with an increasing threat of significant wind damage as it moves east-southeastward through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the evening and overnight.
The National Weather Service Northern Indiana office issues an updated Hazardous Weather Outlook at 1:25 p.m. EDT. It includes the following statement:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)
In all my years of volunteering as a SKYWARN storm spotter (since the 1970s), I’ve vary rarely seen a convective outlook that indicated a high risk of severe weather in the Fort Wayne area. I don’t remember how many times I’ve seen it, but I’m fairly sure it’s been fewer than five. Suffice to say it’s very unusual in our area and when it happens, we should pay very close attention to the weather. Well, it happened this afternoon.
At 12:26 p.m. EDT, the Storm Prediction Center issued and updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that indicates a high risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow. The high risk area includes approximately the northern third of Indiana (including Fort Wayne), the northern fourth of Illinois and slivers of southern Michigan and northwestern Ohio. For IMO SKYWARN members, the high risk area includes almost all of quadrants one and two and all of quadrants three and four.
The main reason for the increase to high risk is the increase in the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (57.5 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. That risk has increased from 45 percent to 60 percent in the high risk area (see the map above).
There’s very little uncertainty that severe weather will occur, that SKYWARN spotters will need to activate and that the general public should be prepared for very damaging thunderstorms. Be ready to receive and respond to watches and warnings as they are issued later.
The flash flood watch below covers all 37 counties of the IMO SKYWARN area.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1202 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
.ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. GIVEN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-130015- /O.NEW.KIWX.FF.A.0001.130612T2200Z-130613T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 1202 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 /1102 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN... DE KALB...ELKHART...FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY... KOSCIUSKO...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE... PULASKI...ST. JOSEPH IN...STARKE...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS... WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BERRIEN...BRANCH... CASS MI...HILLSDALE AND ST. JOSEPH MI. IN NORTHWEST OHIO... ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM... VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.
* FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND THE RAPID RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
* WHILE MANY RIVERS WILL RESPOND AND BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE RAINFALL...SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS COULD RAPIDLY FLOOD AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ENCOUNTER WATER...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion that indicates that the next convective outlook will upgrade the risk of damaging wind from “moderate risk” to “high risk” from extreme eastern Iowa into northern portions of Illinois and Indiana and northwestern Ohio. More details will appear in the next Day 1 Convective Outlook.
