Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather. Green area: Thunderstorms, but insignificant risk of severe weather.

Much of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow, Saturday, Oct. 5, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:30 p.m. EDT today. The slight risk area includes all Indiana counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, except Steuben, DeKalb, Allen, Adams, most of Jay and the eastern half of Wells. In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the slight risk area includes Whitley, Huntington, western Wells and Blackford Counties.

Forecasters expect lines of multiple thunderstorms to form during the afternoon tomorrow. The main threat is for damaging straight-line winds. Some hail is also possible as is a tornado.

We’ll know much more about the risk when SPC issues its Day 1 Convective Outlooks tomorrow, beginning at about 1 a.m. EDT. Meanwhile, if you have any outdoor activities planned tomorrow, it would be wise to have some means of receiving weather warnings and be prepared to curtail the activities should severe weather approach.

The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter in Fort Wayne returned to the air last evening, after a day of repair work at the tower site, according to a Public Information Statement the National Weather Service issued at 8:54 p.m. last night. The statement also indicated that additional work is needed and that the transmitter might therefore be periodically off the air again today.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
953 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013 /853 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/

...FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO WILL BE OFF THE AIR WEDNESDAY...

THE FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER WXJ-58 AT 162.550
MHZ WILL BE OFF THE AIR WEDNESDAY...OCTOBER 2...2013 WHILE THE
TRANSMITTER ANTENNA IS BEING REPLACED. THE RADIO IS EXPECTED TO BE
BACK ON THE AIR BY 8 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AN ALTERNATE NOAA RADIO BROADCAST FOR THE FORT WAYNE AREA WILL BE
KXI-94 AT 162.425 MHZ FROM ANGOLA.

FOR THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION SEE OUR WEBSITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX.

Area to right of red line being monitored for thunderstorm intensification and potentially damaging wind gusts. Source: SPC MDC 1901.

Forecasters at the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center expected a gradual intensification and eastward development of thunderstorm activity in extreme northeastern Indiana and in northwestern Ohio through the remainder of this afternoon, according to a mesoscale discussion they issued at 3:47 p.m. They did not expect that conditions would warrant a severe weather watch but the risk of potentially damaging wind gusts was not out of the question. The SPC indicated it would continue to monitor weather trends in the area.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point.

The risk of severe weather in Indiana today and tonight is less than slight, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT. The outlook covers the period from 9 a.m. EDT today to 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

The outlook indicates that most of Indiana has a five percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or higher within 25 miles of a point. But five percent is not enough to warrant use of the slight risk category. In most of eastern Michigan and a very small part of northwestern Ohio, however, the probability of those severe thunderstorm winds is 15 percent, so the SPC considers those areas to have a slight risk of severe weather.

Yesterday, you might have heard that some of northeastern Indiana would be at slight risk today, but by early this morning, it became clear to SPC meteorologists that severe weather is much less likely in Indiana than previously forecast.

That said, do not rule out the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm this afternoon and/or evening. And even if no storms become strong enough to rank as severe, locally heavy rainfall could cause flooding, especially in areas that received rain yesterday, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:49 a.m. EDT.

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. Friday, Sep. 20 and 8 a.m. Saturday, Sep. 21. Source: SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued at 1 a.m. EDT Thursday, Sep. 19.

Northwestern Ohio and a small part of northeastern Indiana have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, Friday, Sep. 20 and 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 2 a.m. today. As you can see in the map above, the slight risk area includes the eastern half of Allen County, Indiana, most of Wells County and all of Adams, Blackford and Jay Counties. It also includes all Ohio Counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office (i.e. all Ohio Counties of IMO SKYWARN quadrants one and two).

According to the convective outlook, forecasters expect atmospheric conditions tomorrow to be far from what’s normally needed for widespread severe weather. There a chance, however, that some marginally severe storms could develop tomorrow afternoon and/or tomorrow evening. If they do, the main risk is from isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and possibly some hail.

We’ll have a much better look at the situation tomorrow morning, after the SPC issues its Day 1 Convective Outlook for tomorrow.