Top: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph )or higher within 25 miles of a point (yellow = 15%). Bottom: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point (green = 2%).

All of Indiana remains at slight risk of severe weather today, according to the Day One Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm (NWS) Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:50 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area also includes approximately the southern third of lower Michigan and all but extreme southeastern Ohio. It includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

The primary risk is damaging straight-line wind. The probability of damaging winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of any point is 15 percent throughout the slight risk area. There’s also a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in an area that includes most of Indiana and two counties into Ohio (for SKYWARN spotters, the 2 percent tornado probability includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants two and three, a large part of quadrant 4 and a small part of quadrant one).

The chance of thunderstorms will increase early this evening as a cold front approaches from the west, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:21 a.m. EDT. Forecaster also indicated that locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible from today through this evening that could lead to localized flooding of low lying and poorly drained areas (including streets where catch basins are blocked by leaves).

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this evening, according to the HWO. See an email message to spotters sent mid-morning by the warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana NWS office.

The mayor and police chief of the City of Fort Wayne have decided not to change today’s official trick-or-treating hours in the city (read more). Parents who plan to take their children trick-or-treating this evening should have some means of receiving immediate word of any watches or warnings that the NWS might issue. Possibilities include keeping the car radio tuned to a local station, signing up for text alerts available on the websites of many local media outlets and/or installing a weather alert smartphone app.

We’ll get our next looks at today’s severe weather risk with updated convective outlooks that are due by 12:30 p.m. 4 p.m. and 8 p.m.

You can also learn more about today’s weather event by watching and/or participating in a Twitter “tweet-up” that the northern Indiana NWS office will conduct between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. EDT. Read more about the tweet-up.

October is not part of peak tornado season but that’s no reason to ignore today’s risks. Read more.

All of Indiana most of the western half of Ohio and extreme southern Michigan are at slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, October 31 and 8 a.m. EDT Friday, November 1, according to the Day Two Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:26 p.m. EDT today. The slight risk area includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

Halloween afternoon, forecasters expect a line of thunderstorms to develop and move rapidly eastward. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds. The line of storms could bend, however, into a bow or wave pattern, which could support tornadoes embedded within the line.

Parents venturing out with trick-or-treaters should make sure they have a way to receiving word of any storm watches or warnings that might come out tomorrow afternoon and evening. Possibilities include keeping the car radio tuned to a local station, signing up for text alerts available on the websites of many local media outlets and/or installing a weather alert smartphone app. SKYWARN spotters should prepare for the possibility of activation Thursday afternoon and/or evening.

The next update on severe weather risk for Halloween comes with the first Day One Convective Outlook of the day, due at approximately 2 a.m. EDT. Additional updates will follow at 9 a.m., 12:30 p.m. 4 p.m. and 8 p.m.

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) today announced new plans for volunteer storm spotter traning as part of the NWS SKYWARN program.

The NWS office plans seven regional, multi-county spotter training sessions in 2014 (see the region map below). An NWS meteorologist will lead each regional session in person, rather than remotely via teleconference. The session for the region that includes Allen County, Indiana is scheduled to take place at Columbia City High School, 600 N. Whitley St., Columbia City, Ind. That session is scheduled for Feb. 18, beginning at 7 p.m. EST. The NWS will not conduct SKYWARN training in Allen County, Indiana in 2014 — not even the remotely-presented training the NWS provided in 2013.

Spotters and people interested in becoming spotters may attend any of the regional spotter training sessions listed on the NWS event calendar. It is not necessary to attend the session designated for your county. For example, residents of southern Allen County might prefer to attend the training that’s scheduled in Bluffton, Ind. Regardless of which session you plan to attend, NWS requests that you register in advance, using the appropriate link on the NWS event calendar. Registration is not required but the NWS encourages registration to help it assue that it has sufficient facilities, etc. for the number of people who attend.

For those unable to attend any of the regional spotter training sessions in 2014, the NWS plans multiple other training opportunities. For more information, please see an email message below from Michael Lewis, the warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana NWS office.

None of the counties covered by the Northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office are at risk of severe weather today or tonight, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:28 p.m. today. As compared to yesterday’s Day 2 Convective Outlook, the slight risk area moved to the south and east, covering parts of central and southern Ohio and parts of West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee.

While forecasters expect no severe thunderstorms in the Fort Wayne area, locally heavy rainfall rates are likely east of Interstate 69 this afternoon. The heavy rain could lead to flooding, particularly in northwestern Ohio, according to the Hazardous weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:29 a.m. EDT today

The western half of Allen County, Indiana is no longer in an area of slight risk for severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to the updated Day 2 Convective Outlook the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:40 p.m. EDT today. Under the updated outlook, the following Indiana counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two have a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow: eastern Allen, eastern Wells, Adams, eastern Blackford and Jay. All of the quadrant’s Ohio counties remain in the slight risk area.

Isolated damaging winds are possible in the slight risk area, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Forecasters also say they cannot rule out the risk of a tornado.

We will know much more about tomorrow’s severe weather risk when the SPC issues its first Day 1 Convective Outlook early tomorrow morning.

Parts of northern Indiana are at risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at 12:24 EDT today. Other parts have the same level of risk between 8 a.m. tomorrow (Sunday) and 8 a.m. Monday. Today’s slight risk area includes all but the easternmost counties of Indiana. In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, today’s slight risk area includes all or part of the following counties: Whitley, Huntington and Blackford. Other counties in the area can expect thunderstorms but have an insignificant risk of severe weather today and tonight. The main risk today is for a few storms in the slight risk area to become well enough organized to create damaging straight-line winds. The highest chance of severe weather today, however, is west of Indiana.

Tomorrow is a different story.

A slight risk area includes all Indiana and Ohio counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, plus a large part of east central Indiana and western Ohio, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook the SPC issued at 1:31 a.m. EDT today. Morning storms in the area could bring damaging winds an possibly a tornado.