All posts by Jay Farlow

I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.

NWS issues new YouTube briefing on #holidaystorm — flood watch continues

The northern Indiana office of the national weather service issued the above YouTube briefing this morning regarding the coming storm system. Below is the latest official flood watch. To stay up to date on the latest #holidaystorm information, visit www.weather.gov/iwx, or follow @nwsiwx on Twitter or monitor the northern Indiana NWS Facebook page.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND...

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TO INDIANA. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW MELT AND SATURATED FROZEN
SOILS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RUN-OFF AND POSSIBLY CAUSE FLOODING
OF RIVERS AND CREEKS ALONG WITH LOW LYING AREAS. FLOODING ALONG
RIVERS IN THE MAUMEE AND WABASH BASINS DUE TO THIS WEEKENDS HEAVY
RAINFALL... WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

STEUBEN-HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...FREMONT...HILLSDALE...
LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE
340 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
NORTHERN INDIANA...STEUBEN. IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...HILLSDALE.

* FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS INCLUDE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREAMS
AND CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-
BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...
ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...
COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT...
ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...
OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
340 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 /240 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...
BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB...FULTON IN...GRANT...
HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...
PULASKI...STARKE...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN
NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...
PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF US 24. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS INCLUDE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREAMS
AND CREEKS. MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Possible flooding this weekend

NWS flooding potential infographic

Above is the latest infographic from the National Weather Service northern Indiana office about the forecast heavy rain and potential flooding. Below is the latest flood watch statement. If you’re interested in tweets from around the country about this storm system, search for hash tag #holidaystorm or follow this link.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1029 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND...

.MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE
COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND RECENT SNOWMELT MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS ALONG WITH LOW LYING AREAS.
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE MAUMEE AND WABASH BASINS WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

1029 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 /929 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...
BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB...FULTON IN...GRANT...
HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...
PULASKI...STARKE...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN
NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...
PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF US 24. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS INCLUDE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREAMS
AND CREEKS. MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Flood watch remains in effect for weekend

NWS infographic

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
432 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

…HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND…

A strong storm system will organize across the southern plains on Saturday and move toward the southern great lakes and Ohio valley regions through late Sunday. Rain is expected to overspread the area Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday. Rainfall will be heavy at times, especially Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While the exact track of the heaviest precipitation is still uncertain, the potential exists for 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. In addition, warmer air surging northward will allow for continued melting of the existing snowpack. The combination of runoff from heavy rainfall and snowmelt may lead to flooding of streams and creeks along with low lying areas. River levels across the Maumee and Wabash basins will likely see significant rises and potential flooding into next week.

432 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 /332 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...ADAMS...ALLEN IN...
BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB...FULTON IN...GRANT...
HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO...MARSHALL...MIAMI...NOBLE...
PULASKI...STARKE...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY. IN
NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...
PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF US 24. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS INCLUDE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREAMS
AND CREEKS. MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Flood watch issued for northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
337 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD WILL ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND CREEKS ALONG WITH LOW LYING AREAS. RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE
MAUMEE AND WABASH BASINS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-200845-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FA.A.0005.131221T1800Z-131222T1200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-
BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...
ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...
COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT...
ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...
OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
337 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013 /237 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...
ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB...FULTON IN...
GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO...MARSHALL...MIAMI...
NOBLE...PULASKI...STARKE...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND WHITLEY.
IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...HENRY...
PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF US 24. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS INCLUDE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS STREAMS
AND CREEKS. MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

NWS briefing on weekend weather

NWS logo

In case you didn’t see it, the northern Indiana National Weather Service office emailed the following briefing to SKYWARN storm spotters late this morning:

  • Widespread light rain Friday and Friday night with rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.25 inches.
  • Some snowmelt Friday-Friday night but hydro impacts are expected to be none to minimal through Saturday morning.
  • Rain expected to increase from south to north Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening, and rain will become heavy late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night.
  • Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches possible Saturday through early Sunday morning, with localized heavier amounts possible, especially south of Route 24.  Heavy rain combined with rapid snowmelt during this period will lead to heightened flooding risk.
  • Confidence – Increasing confidence in heavy rain affecting portions of the forecast area, but still medium confidence on exactly where axis of heaviest rainfall sets up which will be refined in future updates/forecasts.

Heavy rainfall, significant flooding possible this weekend

See the infographic below, issued this morning by the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service. Note especially the chance of freezing rain Saturday morning and the statement that the forecast might still change.

NWS infographic

See also the Hazardous Weather Outlook below, which the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:15 this morning:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IN THE AREA BY SUNDAY
. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

NWS northern Indiana tweets about coming weekend storm

You may have heard about this weekend's winter storm. Mainly heavy rain here, altho rain/snow mix possible later Sun. as it exits

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) December 18, 2013

The combination of warmer temps, melting snowpack & heavy rainfall from this upcoming weekend storm may lead to some river flooding

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) December 18, 2013

Still some uncertainty with track of this system so make sure to stay tuned, esp if you have travel plans for the holiday weekend!

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) December 18, 2013

For a detailed forecast for your location, make sure to visit http://t.co/oG7bvcqmCh

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) December 18, 2013

.@jrwskw Heaviest rain looks to be Sat night and across southern half of area. Could see upwards of a couple inches

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) December 18, 2013

Here's a rainfall forecast from @NWSWPC for Sat AM-Mon AM. Again, subject to change based on track of system. pic.twitter.com/RtNORWNYVf

— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) December 18, 2013