From the latest Area Forecast Discussion by the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service:
“Travel Sunday, especially starting during the afternoon, is strongly discouraged.”
All posts by Jay Farlow
Winter storm or blizzard?
See this infographic from the National Weather Service to learn the difference between a winter storm and a blizzard:
Valuable YouTube briefing on coming storm
Winter storm warning: 10″ to 14″ of snow
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014
...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WITH HISTORIC COLD AIR AND WIND
CHILLS...
.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DEADLY WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT NEAR THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW TO
THE REGION. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. AS WINDS INCREASE AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVES...WIND CHILLS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45
DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY WINTER STORM AND
TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED
FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES WITH POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PACK EXTRA BLANKETS...FOOD...WATER...A
SHOVEL AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE PLENTY OF FUEL. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
WALK LONG DISTANCES OR SPEND LONG PERIODS OF TIME OUTSIDE.
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BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...
ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...
GARRETT...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...
MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...COLDWATER...
BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...
NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...
MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
357 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO
1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
EST TUESDAY...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH 1 TO
LOCALLY 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING OF 10 TO 14 INCHES.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRASTICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BETWEEN 7 BELOW AND 17 BELOW ZERO. DEADLY WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
30 BELOW AND 45 BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
IMPACTS...
* ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CAUSE ROADWAYS TO BECOME PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
* VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
* FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL OCCUR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES
WITH THESE EXPECTED WIND CHILLS. DEATH WILL ALSO OCCUR IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
Ft. wayne to open shelters Sunday; warming stations to open Monday
The City of Fort Wayne issued the following news release this afternoon:
January 3, 2014 – The City of Fort Wayne today announced it’s preparing for the potential for a significant snow event beginning Sunday and dangerous cold temperatures.
In anticipation for the possibility of severe weather, two shelters will open beginning at Noon on Sunday, Jan. 5 to provide a place for individuals in need of shelter. The shelters would remain open until further notice. Plans could change as needed.
Shelter locations:*Salvation Army, 2901 N. Clinton St.
*Public Safety Academy, 7602 Patriot CrossingIn addition, the City’s Parks & Recreation Department will open four warming stations beginning on Monday, Jan. 6 for individuals in need of a location to stay warm for a shorter period of time. It’s expected the warming stations will be open through Tuesday. Plans could change as needed.
Warming station locations:
*Community Center, 233 W. Main St., 8 a.m.-8 p.m.
*Jennings Center, 1330 McCulloch St., Noon-8 p.m.
*Weisser Center, 802 Eckart St., Noon-8 p.m.
*Cooper Center, 2300 Clinton/Lafayette streets, Noon-8 p.m.
“We’re taking a proactive approach to meet the needs of citizens in our community,” said Mayor Tom Henry. “I appreciate the teamwork and partnerships as we come together to respond to a possible major winter storm. I encourage all citizens to be safe and be sure to check on friends and neighbors as we anticipate a lot of snow and very cold temperatures.”
The City’s Police, Fire, and Public Works departments are all prepared with full personnel in position to respond accordingly to any potential weather emergencies.
Meteorologists concerned about snowfall forecast
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued an Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon that reveals meteorologists thinking about the coming winter storm. Here are some highlights (translating contractions as necessary):
“Concerns loom that models are not capturing full potential of the system and that much more snow could occur than presently forecast as well as track further northwest.”
“At this time the highest is confined to southeastern half of the (office’s forecast) area but as noted genuine concerns that this axis could be shifted northwest.”
“Travel Sunday into Monday will likely become difficult if not impossible especially in rural areas where significant drifting will occur.”
NWS issues multimedia briefing on impending major winter storm
European forecast model “wacky”
@taylorcowboys Jim, Euro has been rather wacky as of late. I think the NAM low and Euro is high. Somewhere in the middle 4 – 7″ #mythinking
— WANE 15 Weather (@wanewx) January 3, 2014
WANE-TV’s Shoup: Computer forecst models disagree
Interesting blog post from WANE-TV meteorologist Greg Shoup: http://blogs.wane.com/2014/01/03/latest-on-winter-storm-and-cold/. He reports that there’s significant disagreement between the computer forecast models that meteorologists use, with one model predicting far more snow than two others.
Winter Storm Watch issued for Sat. night and Sunday
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
...INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...
.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. GREATER CONCERN LIES
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS FROM ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING TO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AS WINDS INCREASE AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES...WIND CHILLS WILL
QUICKLY DROP BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO DURING THE WATCH PERIOD. VALUES
IN THE 30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST PLANS ACCORDINGLY.
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LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-
BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...
ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...
GARRETT...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...
MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...COLDWATER...
BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...
NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...
MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
1109 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPACTS...
* ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIFTING SNOW MAY CAUSE ALL ROADWAYS TO BECOME
PARTIALLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
* VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS BOTH IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.