All posts by Jay Farlow

I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.

Don’t pay attention to long-range snowfall hype! Here’s why

A lot of amateur meteorologists are spreading a lot of hype about a huge snowstorm that’s supposedly going to hit next week sometime. As WANE-TV meteorologist Jesse Hawila wrote in a Facebook post yesterday, this is ridiculous. The same thing happened in December, when Twitter and Facebook users posted a map image from a forecast model run six and a half days in advance of the storm. That map (below) suggested that northeastern Indiana could get more than 20 inches of snow. But that didn’t happen!

European model snowfall map from Dec. 16, 2013
Forecast map from a European numerical forecast model created Dec. 16, 2013 for a Dec. 22-23 event.

Gensini

As that storm passed northern Illinois, DuPage College meteorology professor Victor Gensini wrote a great blog explaining why it’s so foolish to distribute images like the one above, especially without lots of explanation of what these computer models mean and don’t mean. Now that some people are again foolishly hyping the next big storm for our area, reading Gensini’s December blog is again worthwhile. Check it out. (Thanks to WANE-TV meteorologist Greg Shoup for sending a tweet about Gensini’s blog.)

Shelves bare at the Associated Churches Neighborhood Food Network warehouse

Associated churches neighborhood food network logo
Urgent Request for Food Donations!

Shelves are Bare at the Associated Churches Neighborhood Food Network Warehouse
FORT WAYNE, IN (January 29, 2014) -Associated Churches Neighborhood Food Network is asking for donations as the food supply is running drastically low and the demand is higher than ever. 
“We are in dire straits. Simply put, we are without food to share with those in need. We need your help,” said Pastor Fred Meuter, Director of Church Relations for Associated Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. “I will be contacting area churches in the days ahead to ask them to give us the food we need. If you can bring a bag of canned and dry goods to our main office that would be a true blessing. Our need is dire at this time. We really need the help of the community.”
The need to provide emergency food relief is greater than ever. An average of about 3,000 Allen County families access the Neighborhood Food Network per month. 
“We are a community together for the greater good, and the need in our community is greater than ever,” said Roger Reece, Executive Pastor at Associated Churches of Fort Wayne & Allen County. “Feeding the hungry is a command made repeatedly in scripture, and we take that command very seriously. Fulfilling this command is made possible through the collaboration of our churches, volunteers, business partners, and the grace of God. Please consider how you can help with this great need of feeding the hungry in our community right now.”   
Throughout the year, the Neighborhood Food Network depends on the donations of food and money to keep fulfilling its mission to feed the hungry.  Last year, there was a decrease in overall donations. 
“While we realize you are also feeling the effects of this economy, your contribution, no matter how small, makes an enormous difference to those people who need the help of the Neighborhood Food Network. Please consider helping us continue to provide for those.”
Non-perishable canned and dry goods may be dropped off at the Associated Churches warehouse at 602 East Wayne Street. Monetary donations are also accepted and can be made online at www.AssociatedChurches.Org.
“We encourage the media to come to our warehouse and see the empty shelves,” Meuter said. “We need to get the word out to the community that we need their help.”
For further information, contact Pastor Fred Meuter at 260-422-3528 ext. 101 or Roger Reece at 260-422-3528 ext. 102. 
About Associated Churches Neighborhood Food Network:
This ministry is made up of 28 food pantries located throughout Fort Wayne and Allen County and focuses on feeding all who are hungry ion our community. The pantries are located in neighborhoods or small towns and offer visitors a 5-day supply of balanced meals once a month.

Significant snowfall possible Saturday

Warmer weather, but snowfall chances return by the end of the week. Significant snow possible Saturday. pic.twitter.com/ctho3Cccdh
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 29, 2014

@TreyHeckaman Current indications are 3 to 5 inches, but that may need to be adjusted upwards if a few of the wetter models verify.
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 29, 2014

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills into Wednesday

NWS infographic regarding wind chill forecaast

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
957 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS INTO WEDNESDAY...

.BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ WEDNESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS
WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

* FROSTBITE OF EXPOSED SKIN CAN OCCUR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES IN
THESE CONDITIONS. HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR FOR THOSE NOT PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills into Wednesday

Screen shot of NWS web page showing conditions at 7:54 a.m. EST
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS INTO WEDNESDAY...

.BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO TODAY... AND AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ WEDNESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS
WILL CAUSE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO TODAY... AND
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

* FROSTBITE OF EXPOSED SKIN CAN OCCUR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES IN
THESE CONDITIONS. HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR FOR THOSE NOT PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

NWS: Blowing and drifting snow remains possible

Photo of snow drifint on road

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office issued a Special Weather Statement this evening to indicate that blowing and drifting snow remains possible in its forecast area tonight:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-280600-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
742 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 /642 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW STILL POSSIBLE...

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 25 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BLOW LIGHT SNOW BACK ONTO ROADS THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING THEM
SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SOME RURAL COUNTY ROADS MAY
REMAIN IMPASSABLE OR DOWN TO ONE LANE. USE CAUTION IF YOU MUST BE
OUT DRIVING AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS
WHERE YOU MAY BECOME STRANDED. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 25
BELOW AND 35 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT MAKING ANY ATTEMPT TO
REMAIN OUTSIDE VERY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY IF NOT
PROPERLY DRESSED.