@EricGolden6 Snow is possible next week … way too early to put an amount on it.
— Curtis Smith (@CurtisSmithINC) January 30, 2014
All posts by Jay Farlow
NWS tweet: Way too early to predict next week’s snowfall
@digdugdigger Way too early to tell. Potential for a strong system somewhere from the Ohio Valley into Great Lakes,
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 30, 2014
Don’t pay attention to long-range snowfall hype! Here’s why
A lot of amateur meteorologists are spreading a lot of hype about a huge snowstorm that’s supposedly going to hit next week sometime. As WANE-TV meteorologist Jesse Hawila wrote in a Facebook post yesterday, this is ridiculous. The same thing happened in December, when Twitter and Facebook users posted a map image from a forecast model run six and a half days in advance of the storm. That map (below) suggested that northeastern Indiana could get more than 20 inches of snow. But that didn’t happen!
Forecast map from a European numerical forecast model created Dec. 16, 2013 for a Dec. 22-23 event. |
Gensini |
As that storm passed northern Illinois, DuPage College meteorology professor Victor Gensini wrote a great blog explaining why it’s so foolish to distribute images like the one above, especially without lots of explanation of what these computer models mean and don’t mean. Now that some people are again foolishly hyping the next big storm for our area, reading Gensini’s December blog is again worthwhile. Check it out. (Thanks to WANE-TV meteorologist Greg Shoup for sending a tweet about Gensini’s blog.)
Rumor control: Size of next week’s snow storm not predictable (yet)
From WANE-TV meteorologist Jesse Hawila:
Folks please read: there are a lot of rumors going around everywhere on social media about a huge snowstorm with 30″+ of snow next week. This is getting out of hand and ridiculous. Read more.
Shelves bare at the Associated Churches Neighborhood Food Network warehouse
Significant snowfall possible Saturday
Warmer weather, but snowfall chances return by the end of the week. Significant snow possible Saturday. pic.twitter.com/ctho3Cccdh
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 29, 2014
@TreyHeckaman Current indications are 3 to 5 inches, but that may need to be adjusted upwards if a few of the wetter models verify.
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 29, 2014
Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills into Wednesday
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
957 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS INTO WEDNESDAY...
.BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ WEDNESDAY...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS
WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS...
* FROSTBITE OF EXPOSED SKIN CAN OCCUR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES IN
THESE CONDITIONS. HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR FOR THOSE NOT PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
Record cold temperture tied this morning
Fort Wayne tied their record low temperature today with a low temperature of -16 degrees. This ties the previous record from 1923.
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 28, 2014
Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills into Wednesday
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS INTO WEDNESDAY...
.BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO TODAY... AND AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ WEDNESDAY...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS
WILL CAUSE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO TODAY... AND
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS...
* FROSTBITE OF EXPOSED SKIN CAN OCCUR IN A MATTER OF MINUTES IN
THESE CONDITIONS. HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR FOR THOSE NOT PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
NWS: Blowing and drifting snow remains possible
The northern Indiana National Weather Service office issued a Special Weather Statement this evening to indicate that blowing and drifting snow remains possible in its forecast area tonight:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-280600-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
742 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 /642 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW STILL POSSIBLE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 25 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BLOW LIGHT SNOW BACK ONTO ROADS THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING THEM
SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SOME RURAL COUNTY ROADS MAY
REMAIN IMPASSABLE OR DOWN TO ONE LANE. USE CAUTION IF YOU MUST BE
OUT DRIVING AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS
WHERE YOU MAY BECOME STRANDED. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 25
BELOW AND 35 BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT MAKING ANY ATTEMPT TO
REMAIN OUTSIDE VERY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY IF NOT
PROPERLY DRESSED.