I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.
See an update regarding NWS confidence levels in the snowfall forecast
See the NWS infographic above for a synopsis of the current storm forecast. For details, see the full Winter Storm Watch statement below. Note that the forecast snowfall amounts are still subject to change, based on the storm’s actual track and strength. Remember, a Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Residents of the watch area should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 441 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
...WINTER STORM DEVELOPING...
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...DEPENDING ON THE STORM'S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW OVERSPREADS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
* TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE
* AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
* DIFFICULT MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING
* INCREASING NORTH WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CAUSE DRIFTING...PRIMARILY ON EAST TO WEST ROADS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 542 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
...WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW TAPERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF A FARTHER NORTH STORM TRACK VERIFIES...A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS EARLY STAGES AND LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS...AS FORECAST DETAILS BECOMING FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.
SKYWARN spotter training presented by the Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service is scheduled to begin Tuesday, Feb. 4, in South Bend, with additional sessions at other locations planned for the following several weeks. The possibility exists that winter weather might force NWS to cancel one or more of the planned sessions. Recently, the NWS sent an email message to those who have pre-resgistered for a training session, to describe plans for communicating such cancelations. If you have not pre-registered for a training session, doing so here will assue that you will receive email notification, should weather force cancelation of that session. Below is an excerpt of the email message that NWS sent to people who have already registered:
In the event that weather creates hazardous conditions, the National Weather Service may decide to cancel the Spotter Training.
At this time there does not appear to be any reason to think that the event will be cancelled; however, if public safety is a concern, we will work with the local Emergency Management Agency to get the word out as soon as possible.
Check your e-mail (Notification will be sent to your registration e-mail)
Regarding the reference to last night’s thoughts, see the blog post I published last night. As usual, the above-referenced forecast discussion is quite technical, but the way I read it, the gist is that there is still some disagreement between computer forecast models regarding whether the storm will bring all snow to the entire 37-county forecast area, or whether the southeastern portion of the forecast area (e.g., Jay, Blackford, Grant, Wells, Adams and Allen Counties of Indiana and Van Wert County, Ohio) will see mixed precipitation. Also, the discussion indicates that a winter storm watch might be needed by early Monday morning.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOW. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
As we stress with any winter storm, track will greatly impact snow amts. Too uncertain now for specific snow totals at your location — NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) February 1, 2014
Many questions coming in about snow on Tues/Weds. We will have an update later this evening but focusing on today’s storm 1st — NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) February 1, 2014
See the tweet above. Also, check out this morning’s Hazardous Weather Outlook:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 411 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014
INZ006>009-013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-022115- LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-PULASKI-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY- ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT- BLACKFORD-JAY-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING- PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...WINAMAC... FRANCESVILLE...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT... PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND... HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON... PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 411 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CHANGE BRIEFLY TO WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.
Below are the verbatim Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories the National Weather Service northern Indiana office issued this afternoon. There are five different sections, based on geography, so be sure to scroll down to the section that identifies your county.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 322 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014
...MIXED BAG OF WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN SATURDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER IN SOME AREAS AND IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. BASED ON A LOW TRACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW NOW APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON FAR NW COUNTIES WHERE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF AS YOU PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR RISE ABOVE FREEZING. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBIA CITY TO WAUSEON OHIO LINE THE PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO A MIX OF PRECIP TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 32 TO 34 DEGREES...ALLOWING FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IN MANY AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MANY SURFACES REMAIN VERY COLD FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP.
THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND ICE THREAT HIGHLY VARIABLE. SMALL SHIFTS TO THE TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE GREAT IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TOTALS. VISIT WEATHER.GOV/IWX FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM.
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING AND BECOME HEAVIER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES AREA EXPECTED. SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
* SNOW FALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE... WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE.
* SNOW FALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* ICE COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS...CAUSING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA... ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...WINAMAC... FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLDWATER...BRONSON... HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND MAY BECOME HEAVY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH IS POSSIBLE.
* SNOW FALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* ICE COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS...CAUSING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
STARKE-MARSHALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SATURDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND MAY BECOME HEAVY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH IS POSSIBLE.
* SNOW FALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* ICE COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS...CAUSING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON- WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY- PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY... TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO... BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU... GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON... ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION... GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND... DUNKIRK...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON... DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER... LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA... PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS... OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Snow will overspread the region today, w/ 0.5″ to 1.5″ possible through midnight. Wintry mix on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/chWbdkSg2R — NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) January 31, 2014
Complicated forecast scenario on Saturday with warm air pushing north into the area, causing precipitation type changes.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...COLDWATER... HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON... PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 627 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 /527 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF ROUTE 6 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24. A BAND OF ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WINTRY DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL IMPROVE OVER AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.
&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
I just got an excellent email message from Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist, National Weather Service northern Indiana office. I’m excerpting it below, with his permission. Good words. Heed them!
As an NWS employee, I cannot police what people decide to ‘use’ for there forecast services; however, I would hope that our trained spotters would not fall victim to the hype and hysteria that is surrounding the model forecasts for next week.
The ‘hype-casting’ for an event next week is causing concern, when any well trained meteorologist will tell you that computer model skill beyond day 5 needs to be scrutinized carefully. Model solutions have been and continue to be “all over the place” and a simple change of 50 miles or change in speed of a few hours, changes to temperature and moisture and a host of other ‘artifacts’ can result in significant differences in the computer model generated output. Here is a well written blog – http://www.gensiniwx.com/2013/12/the-truth-is-you-gave-lousy-forecast.html. My sharing this link does not constitute the NWS opinion or support. This is shared because as a meteorologist, I agree with nearly EVERY point made.
The NWS in Northern Indiana is aware of the forecasts that are circulating, and we are providing forecasts based on our confidence in the solution. It is still TOO early to say with any level of certainty or confidence what the system next week will produce, let alone whether it will be all rain, all snow, or for that matter WHEN it will begin and end.
Please continue to monitor our websites and use our services to stay informed.
Quick Briefing Pages
I have been busy putting finishing touches on the Core Partner Briefing Pages.
Enhanced Data Display Page This continues to be expanded and new data and resources are being added on a weekly basis. This is an invaluable tool for Situational awareness. EDD Page Centered on the NWS IWX Area:http://tinyurl.com/q49o8bq Default Page:http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ (there is a mobile version of this page)
We are here to save lives and minimize loss. We take our mission seriously and want to provide you the BEST service, the BEST forecasts and the BEST watch/warning/advisories to help you make the BEST decisions to serve your community. No hype, no hysteria, no fear-casting.
Michael S. Lewis Warning Coordination Meteorologist KG4KJQ
