All posts by Jay Farlow

I'm Jay Farlow. W9LW is my amateur (ham) radio call sign. I've been a ham since 1973. I've been a volunteer storm spotter for the National Weather Service SKYWARN program since the 1970s. I've also been a volunteer EMT and firefighter and member of a disaster medical assistance team. I advise the leadership team of Associated Churches Active in Disaster, a ministry of Associate Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County. Learn more about w9lw at www.qrz.com/db/w9lw.

SPC seeks input on planned convective outlook changes

Example convective outlook map
Example convective outlook map. Notice the new dark green “MRGL” (marginal) and orange “ENH” (enhanced) risk areas.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) plans significant changes to its Convective Outlook product, from which many SKYWARN storm spotters and others get their first indications that severe weather could occur.

The SPC plans to expand the product’s risk categories from four to five, while clarifying the category previously labeled as “See Text.” Convective outlooks would instead have a new “marginal” category to denote areas with at least a five percent probability of severe weather. The upper end of the current “Slight Risk” category would be renamed “Enhanced” (short for “Enhanced Slight”) to denote a threshold 30 percent probability of severe wind or hail and/or a 10 percent chance of a tornado during the Day 1 period. For Days 2 and 3, the “Enhanced” risk category would denote a 30 percent total severe probability. The Moderate and High risk thresholds will remain essentially unchanged.

The SPC wants users of the Convective Outlook product, including storm spotters, to provide their opinions on the planned changes. Read details about the changes on the SPC website, where you can also follow a link to a survey.

New online weather reporting method available

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) has a new way for SKYWARN storm spotters to send reports via the Internet. A new spotter report form on the office’s website succeeds the old eSpotter website. I wrote previously that the NWS plans to shut down the eSpotter site soon.

The new Web form allows you to report a number of weather phenomena, including:

  • Dense Fog
  • Flood
  • Hail
  • High wind speed
  • Tornado
  • Funnel cloud
  • Wind damage
  • Snow
  • Freezing rain
  • Rainfall totals

Reports entered into the new form appear on an Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstation at the weather forecast office, where a meteorologist will notice it immediately.

To get to the new form, visit the office’s home page at www.weather.gov/iwx and click on the “Submit Report” link in the left-hand menu (under “Current Hazards”). Or just click here and bookmark the page.

Screen shot of report form

First documented radar hook echo

Meteorologists in Illinois documented the first radar hook echo on this date in 1953. This was a major turning point in monitoring severe weather, demonstrating that tornadoes could be identified by radar. This discovery helped lead to the first national weather radar network in the United States.

Read more on the blog of the Illinois State Climatologist »

First recorded radar hook echo of a tornado, April 9, 1953, near Champaign, IL (photo courtesy of the Illinois State Water Survey, INRS, University of Illinois).

Investing more money in tornado research would be a disaster

Tornado photo
Aurora, Mo. tornado, May 4, 2003 (NWS photo)

Meteorologist Eric Holthaus recently wrote an article for “Slate” in which he criticizes a bill in Congress that would require the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, parent agency of the National Weather Service) to spend more on improving forecasts of “high impact weather events” like tornadoes and hurricanes.

On its face, the bill sounds like a good idea and you might wonder why anyone would oppose making tornado and hurricane forecasts better.

But Holthaus correctly writes that the bill would force NOAA to spend less on improving forecasts of lower-profile weather and climate disasters that, in aggregate, kill dozens of times more people per year.

I’ve noticed that it’s not unusual for lawmakers to pass bills that make it look to the general public like the we are better protected from some harm when those laws really don’t enhance our safety as much as they improve lawmakers’ chances for reelection. This appears to be an example of that.

I highly recommend that you read Holthaus’ article and then consider contacting your U.S. representative. Tell your congressman that the House should not pass H.R.2413, the “Weather Forecasting Improvement Act of 2014,” unless Congress also provides additional funding for its mandates, so that research into more deadly, lower-impact events does not suffer.

Flooding situation continues to improve

Swinney park flooding
The St. Mary’s River spills into Fort Wayne’s Swinney Park, midday, April 4, 2014. (W9LW photo)

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued new statements at midday regarding river flooding in its area. In general, forecasts for flooding are now far less severe.

The NWS canceled the flood warning for the St. Mary’s River at the Muldoon Bridge gauge (just south and upstream of Fort Wayne).

The NWS revised the forecast for the Little River near Huntington from major flooding to minor flooding.

See the latest NWS flood statements.

River flooding remains forecast, even though overnight rain stayed south

Spy Run Creek backs up against the State Blvd. bridge in northern Fort Wayne at 4 p.m., April 3, 2014. (W9LW photo)

See an update to this post.

Heavy rain forecast overnight remained in southern parts of Indiana, which eased some flooding concerns in northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio. But although the potential for heavy rainfall in the area had diminished by early morning, meteorologists indicated that run-off from yesterday’s heavy rainfall will cause river flooding today. Flood warnings therefore remain in effect for many rivers in the area.

The worst problem continues to be in the Huntington area. As of 10:44 p.m. (the most recent NWS statements at the time of this writing), major flooding was forecast along the Little River. The river was forecast to rise to only 0.1 foot below the level at which extensive inundation and damage occurs, many primary roads and bridges close and many evacuations occur.

In Fort Wayne, moderate flooding was forecast along the St. Mary’s River, which was forecast to rise to six inches below the level at which extensive evacuations become necessary and primary roads and bridges are closed. Minor flooding was forecast along the Maumee and St. Joe Rivers. The Maumee was forecast to rise within 0.2 feet of the flood experienced Feb. 8, 2008. The St. Joe was forecast to rise as high as it did May 27, 2011.

Here is a link to the latest updates from the NWS on river flooding. Here is a link to an interactive map on which you can see the latest river gauge readings.

The National Weather Service is requesting reports of flooding, including roads blocked by high water. You can make the reports on Twitter by including the hash tag #nwsiwx (include a photo, when possible) or follow this link to fill out a Web form.

Although river flooding remained forecast, At 3:30 a.m. EDT, the northern Indiana National Weather Service office allowed an areal flood warning for urban areas and small streams to expire for the following counties: Allen (Ind. and Ohio), southeastern Defiance, Paulding, Van Wert, Henry, Putnam, Blackford, Jay, Grant, southeastern Cass, Wells, Adams, southern Miami, southern Huntington, southern Wabash and Allen.

At 3:45 a.m., the NWS canceled the areal flood watch that had been in effect for the following Ohio counties: Fulton and Williams and the following Indiana counties: De Kalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, Lagrange, Noble, Pulaski, Steuben and White.

At 6:46 a.m., the NWS canceled the remainder of its areal flood watch, which included the following Ohio counties: Allen, Defiance, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and Van Wert and the following Indiana counties: Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, Grant, Huntington, Jay, Miami, Wabash, Wells and Whitley.

NWS issues flood watch for large area of Ind., Ohio

Flood watch map
Counties outlined in green are under a flood watch (below) until 11 a.m. EDT Friday
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
234 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...

.WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING.

ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-PULASKI-FULTON IN-
KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-
WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- 
 
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN...
WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...
HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...
ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB...ELKHART...
FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO...LAGRANGE...
MIAMI...NOBLE...PULASKI...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND
WHITLEY. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...
HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

* WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING MAY
RESULT AND IMPACT NUMEROUS ROADS...AGRICULTURAL LANDS AND
POSSIBLY RESIDENTIAL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Flood warning issued for several northwestern Ohio counties

Flood warning map
Area enclosed by green polygon is under a flood warning until 6 p.m. EDT
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1226 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN DEFIANCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
ALLEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
EASTERN PAULDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
EASTERN VAN WERT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 1225 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

SOME TOWNS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE BELMORE...
CLOVERDALE...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...DUPONT...FORT JENNINGS...
GILBOA...GLANDORF...KALIDA...LEIPSIC...MILLER CITY...OTTAWA...
OTTOVILLE...PANDORA...WEST LEIPSIC...PRENTISS...NORTH CREEK...
KIEFERVILLE...RIMER...RUSHMORE...VAUGHNSVILLE...WISTERMAN...
DESHLER...FLORIDA...HAMLER...HOLGATE...LIBERTY CENTER...MALINTA...
MCCLURE...NAPOLEON...NEW BAVARIA...COLTON...ELERY...GRELTON...
OKOLONA...PLEASANT BEND...TEXAS...GALLUP...DELPHOS...ELGIN...MIDDLE
POINT...OHIO CITY...VAN WERT...VENEDOCIA...CAVETT...JONESTOWN...
MONTICELLO...WETZEL...BROUGHTON...CECIL...GROVER HILL...HAVILAND...
LATTY...MELROSE...PAULDING...SCOTT...ARTHUR...CHARLOE...MANDALE...
OAKWOOD...ROSELMS...DEFIANCE...AYERSVILLE...BRUNERSBURG...
INDEPENDENCE...JEWELL...SHERWOOD...THE BEND...STANDLEY...BEAVERDAM...
BLUFFTON...CAIRO...ELIDA...FORT SHAWNEE...HARROD...LAFAYETTE...
LIMA...SPENCERVILLE...CONANT...GOMER...HUME...KEMP...NEEDMORE...
ROCKPORT...ROUSCULP...SLABTOWN...SOUTHWORTH...YODER AND WESTMINSTER.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH 2
PM BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN!

TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG...#NWSIWX.

Food warning issued for several northern Indiana counties

Flood warning map
Area bounded by green polygon is under a flood warning until 6 p.m. EDT
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1218 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
CENTRAL WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 1211 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

SOME TOWNS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE LA FONTAINE...
LINCOLNVILLE...SERVIA...SOMERSET...TREATY...MOUNT ETNA...WARREN...
BANQUO...MAJENICA...LANCASTER...PLEASANT PLAIN...PLUM TREE...
BUCKEYE...AMBOY...BUNKER HILL...GRISSOM AFB...MIAMI...NEAD...SANTA
FE...WELLS...PEORIA...BLUFFTON...CRAIGVILLE...LIBERTY CENTER...
MURRAY...NORTH OAKS...ROCKFORD...TRAVISVILLE...ONWARD...WALTON...
DEACON...LINCOLN...JALAPA AND FLORA.

UP TO AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 PM
EDT BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN!

TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG...#NWSIWX.

NWS issues areal flood advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

DE KALB IN-ALLEN IN-ADAMS IN-WELLS IN-JAY IN-BLACKFORD IN-PUTNAM OH-
HENRY OH-VAN WERT OH-PAULDING OH-DEFIANCE OH-WILLIAMS OH-FULTON OH-
ALLEN OH-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BLACKFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
JAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
ALLEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
DEFIANCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
FULTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
WILLIAMS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
ALLEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
PAULDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
VAN WERT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 1157 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES WEST OF CORUNNA TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILL GROVE...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF KENDALLVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HARTFORD CITY MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH LIKELY THROUGH 2 PM EDT
BEFORE THE RAIN DIMINSHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG... #NWSIWX.