A smaller but still significant portion of Indiana continues to have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. tomorrow (Mon., Oct. 13) and 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:59 a.m. EDT. As compared to yesterday’s “Day 3 Convective Outlook,” the slight risk area now includes less of northern and eastern Indiana.

The newly-drawn slight risk area (see map above) includes only four of the southwestern-most counties of the northern Indiana NWS office’s 37-county warning area; Miami, Cass, Pulaski and White.

Strong thunderstorms are possible elsewhere in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan, but those storms are not expected to be severe.

Within the slight risk area, widespread, straight-line damaging wind and a few tornadoes are the greatest threats. Any severe weather that forms in Indiana is most likely Monday night.

Our next look at the severe weather risk for tomorrow comes with an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC plans to issue by 1:30 p.m. EDT today.

…FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT… .HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST. …FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
View the full statement on the NWS website.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1001 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 ...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT... .HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST. INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-121200- /O.CON.KIWX.FR.Y.0004.141012T0600Z-141012T1200Z/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 

1001 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 /901 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/ 

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY... 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF FROST SHOULD FORM BY LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. 

IMPACTS... * THE FROST MAY KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

See an update to this story.

Most of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Monday, Oct. 13 and 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued today.

SPC meteorologists expect the main treats to be damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and a few tornadoes.

The greatest threat will be in the southern portions of the slight risk area (see map above), however, even if Indiana receives no severe weather, meteorologists indicate that heavy rain could pose a flooding risk.

If you think tornadoes are unlikely this time of year, remember what happened in Van Wert, Ohio in November of 2002.

Our next look at the severe weather outlook for Monday comes at around 2 a.m. EDT Sunday, when the SPC issues a “Day 2 Convective Outlook.”

A team from the National Weather Service surveyed today damage in Huntington from yesterday afternoon’s severe thunderstorm. The team found sporadic, straight-line wind damage along a three-mile path from roughly 1.5 miles northwest of Huntington to approximately 1.5 miles southeast of Huntington. Most of the damage was tree damage or structure damage caused by fallen trees. The survey team estimated the maximum winds to be 65 mph. Read their full report.

The northern Indiana NWS office has issued a preliminary report that summarizes hail and damage reports it received during this afternoon’s storms. You can find the report here.

…STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN WELLS…NORTHERN ADAMS…EASTERN HUNTINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN COUNTIES… AT 511 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSSIAN TO MARKLE…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL…WINDS UP TO 50 MPH…FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
View the full statement on the NWS website.

Some marginally severe thunderstorms are popping up in north-central and northeastern Indiana this afternoon. The storms have dropped hail measuring up to .75 inches in diameter. The threat is too isolated and marginal to justify a severe thunderstorm watch, according to a mesoscale discussion from the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center. But the northern Indiana NWS office has issued some severe thunderstorm warnings and more are possible.

…STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN WELLS…NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON AND SOUTHERN ALLEN COUNTIES… AT 421 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE…OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTINGTON…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL…WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND
View the full statement on the NWS website.

Extreme southern Indiana — along the banks of the Ohio River — has a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:28 a.m. EDT.  Thunderstorms are forecast for the remainder of Indiana but forecasters expect none of those to be severe.

In the parts of Indiana that fall in the slight risk area, damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and large hail of one inch or more in diameter are the primary threats.