Here’s a good explanation of “gustnadoes” by meteorologist Jason Meyers of the Storm Shield App:
All posts by Jay Farlow
N. Ind. NWS gives emergency managers “heads up” on coming storms
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) sent email messages today to emergency managers and the news media regarding two winter storm systems that could affect the office’s 37-county warning area (CWA) between Feb. 28 and March 4.
Storm 1: Sat. night into Sunday night
The NWS forecasts two storm systems to affect the CWA of the northern Indiana office (see map at right). The first will arrive Saturday Night into Sunday (February 28-March 1). Regarding this system, NWS meteorologists have high confidence that snow will accumulate but low confidence regarding the location of highest snowfall amounts.
Snow should fall Saturday evening through Sunday night, with the heaviest snowfall occurring Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The NWS forecasts storm-total accumulation of up to six inches with accumulation being greater in the southern parts of the northern Indiana office’s CWA than in the northern parts.
During this storm, roads could become snow-covered and slippery, but surface temperatures should remain high enough to allow road treatments to remain effective.
Storm 2: Tue. morning into Wednesday
A second storm will reach the area early Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday (March 3-4).
As of this afternoon, NWS forecasters have low confidence in precipitation types and duration in any location with this storm. They expect, however, the storm to begin with snow, followed by period of freezing rain, then all rain.
The potential for snow and ice accumulation is greatest Tuesday morning, with rain falling Tuesday afternoon possibly into Wednesday.
The combination of runoff from the rain, melting snow and frozen rivers could cause flooding and ice jams.
As is always the case with winter storms, forecast confidence will increase as the storm approaches. People should monitor forecasts for changes.
Significant weather impacts possible over next several days
Two separate weather systems will bring a plethora of weather types “with significant impacts possible” in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio between tomorrow (Sat., Feb. 28) and Wednesday, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued this morning.
Heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, heavy rainfall and flooding all are possible.
NWS meteorologists expect the first weather system to bring all snow to the region late Saturday night through Sunday. That storm could bring two to four inches of snow over approximately the northern third of the northern Indiana office’s forecast area and three to six inches over the remainder of the region, according to an infographic the NWS issued this morning (below). The northern Indiana office had no immediate plans this morning to issue any advisories, watches or warnings associated with this first storm, “but certainly something will be needed eventually,” writes NWS meteorologist Sam Lashley.
Forecasters expect the second storm system to impact the region anytime from late Monday night through Tuesday night. This system could bring a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain late Monday night and Tuesday morning, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the NWS issued this morning. Meteorologists expect temperatures to rise above freezing Tuesday afternoon, when locally heavy rain could fall. Rivers and streams will likely still be frozen, so this heavy rain could lead to flooding of low-lying areas as well as ice jams and flooding along streams and creeks.
The track and timing of the second storm system remains uncertain, so the forecast might change. It would be wise to continue to monitor future forecasts.
Tweet responsibly during severe weather
During periods of severe weather, the micro-blogging service, Twitter often explodes with information. Some tweets are helpful, others are less so.
The “Virtual Operations Support Group” blog posted an excellent article last year, “How to Tweet Responsibly in Severe Weather” that every Twitter user should read before the next severe weather event happens.
Highlights include:
- Include the Twitter handle of your local NWS office when reporting weather.
- Include a time stamp with on any tweet about an NWS warning and any tweet that contains a severe weather report.
- In weather reports, also include:
- What you saw.
- Where it happened.
- A photo, if possible.
- Even if you normally prohibit Twitter from knowing your location (for privacy), enable location services while tweeting about severe weather.
Learn about severe weather with NWS storm spotter training
The National Weather Service (NWS) will conduct live, in-person SKYWARN storm spotter training in Fort Wayne Feb. 17 at 7 p.m. at the Public Safety Academy/Ivy Tech South Campus, 7602 Patriot Crossing (off Lafayette St. south of Tillman Rd.).
The NWS relies heavily on trained, volunteer storm spotters. Ham radio operators have strongly supported the SKYWARN program for decades and recently more and more other volunteers, who are not ham radio operators, have joined in. An important part of supporting the program is to receive NWS training and to keep that knowledge up to date.
I want to be as helpful as possible to the NWS and, thereby my community. That’s why I attend SKYWARN training every year, even though the NWS only expects spotters to attend at least once every three years. I find it helpful to refresh my memory from the previous year and to make sure I’m aware of any new information.
If you’ve never attended the training, and you live in the Fort Wayne area, this is your chance to do so without traveling out of town. If you have attended in previous years, this month’s training will be a good refresher. If you don’t live in the Fort Wayne area, you can find a list of other classes taught by the northern Indiana NWS office here.
If you know anyone who is curious about what storm spotting is, invite them to attend. Remember that while a ham license is helpful to spotters, it’s not at all necessary, especially in these days of smartphones and mobile Internet.
The NWS considers the in-person training to be supplemental to online spotter training available on the MetEd website (https://www.meted.ucar.edu/). It recommends that all spotters complete the online training in addition to the in-person training and ideally, before the in-person session.
Finally, the NWS sincerely requests that all individuals register in advance for in-person training sessions. I have already honored that request, by registering for the Feb. 17 session. You can register online for the Fort Wayne class at http://allen-in-spotter.eventzilla.net/ or you can register by phone by calling the Allen County Office of Homeland Security at 260-449-4663.
Fort Wayne disaster ministry monitoring blizzard for possible response
Associated Churches Active in Disaster (ACAD, the disaster ministry of Associated Churches of Fort Wayne and Allen County) is monitoring the situation in the U.S. Northeast, where a major blizzard is underway.
ACAD is in communication with Operation Blessing, a national disaster ministry organization that coordinates the response of disaster volunteers. Operation Blessing positioned an advance team in New Jersey and is prepared to respond with food distribution and snow removal relief efforts. Operation Blessing is not at this time requesting volunteer assistance but could do so in the future, when the impact of the storm and resulting needs of affected communities become known.
ACAD is NOT asking local churches for any kind of assistance at this time, except for prayers for those in the path of the storm. Please do NOT reach out to ACAD or the Associated Churches office with offers of assistance until and unless requested.
ACAD will use social media (such as its Facebook page and Twitter account) and other channels, as appropriate, to keep local churches informed of the situation.
Eastern Seaboard ARES, SKYWARN Volunteers Prepare for Potentially Historic Storm
Here’s the latest on ham radio preparations for the blizzard of 2015:
Wind Chill Advisory issued January 09 at 3:56PM EST until January 10 at 1:00PM EST by NWS
…WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY… HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. * GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
View the full statement on the NWS website.
Special Weather Statement issued January 09 at 2:51PM EST by NWS
…BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING… WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
View the full statement on the NWS website.
Wind Chill Advisory issued January 09 at 10:09AM EST until January 09 at 10:00AM EST by NWS
…WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY… …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED… THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW TODAY
View the full statement on the NWS website.