Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point, 9 a.m. EDT May 21 through 8 a.m. EDT May 22

 Almost all of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between now and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center. The slight risk area includes at least part of every county covered by the northern Indiana NWS weather forecast office. The outlook indicates, however, uncertainty as to whether storms will be able to develop today in air made more stable by last night’s thunderstorms in the middle Mississippi Valley. The biggest concern in Indiana is straight-line wind. In Indiana, the outlook forecasts a 15 percent chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. The hail probability is only five percent in most of Indiana and the tornado probability is only two percent.

The Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana weather forecast office issued early this morning indicates a slight chance of thunderstorms today and then a chance for thunderstorms tonight. The outlook indicates that an isolated storm tonight might become severe. It indicates that meteorologists do not anticipate a need for storm spotter activation.

As with yesterday, I advise checking the convective outlook as SPC updates it throughout the day and remain aware of any watches or warnings that the NWS issues.