Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Remember yesterday, when I suggested that the Day 4 Convective Outlook wasn’t the last word on Indiana’s risk of severe weather Friday? As of this morning, there’s a slight risk of severe weather over the northern third of Indiana, all of lower Michigan and the northwest quarter of Ohio, among other ares (see may at left), according to the Day 3 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued.

While the greatest probability of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Friday and 8 a.m. EDT Saturday remains in Michigan (30 percent), the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office has at least a 15 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point. (See an explanation of these probabilities.)

The focus of attention is a sharp cold front — currently running from Canada across northern Minnesota — that’s forecast to move across the Great Lakes region Friday. In today’s Hazardous Weather Outlook, the northern Indiana NWS office forecasts storms in its coverage area Friday night, during which severe weather and heavy rainfall are possible. The timing of the storms, however, depends on how fast the cold front moves to and across the area.

Our next outlook on Friday’s severe weather risk comes early tomorrow morning, when the SPC issues the first Day 2 Convective Outlook of the day.

Meanwhile, the northern Indiana NWS office issued another Special Weather Statement this morning, advising that high temperatures in the lower 90s and high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat indices from the upper 90s to around 100 until the cold front arrives Friday. The statement includes the standard caution for anyone who must be outside during high heat indices: Take frequent breaks and drink copious fluids.