Quick update on severe weather, tornadoes this afternoon http://t.co/OyRpzUEVni

— Michigan Politics (@MLivePolitics) August 19, 2015

What would you assume when you read a tweet from a mainstream news outlet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon?”

That’s what “MLive Lansing” (the Twitter account of the “Ann Arbor News” and other Michigan newspapers) tweeted this afternoon (see tweet above).

Look at the 12:30 p.m. EDT “Day 1 Convective Outlook” from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) — a very trustworthy source of weather information. It indicates that the Lansing area has a two percent probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point (see outlook map below). The SPC considers two percent a “marginal risk.” That’s less than a “slight risk.”

To put it numerically, the normal probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the Lansing area on this date is approximately 0.20 percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Granted, today’s two percent probability is 10 times that climatology figure. But still, does a marginal risk support a tweet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon”?

I think not. Most readers, seeing a tweet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon,” will assume that more than one tornado is at least a strong possibility. The SPC outlook certainly indicates otherwise.

Poor journalism is rampant on social media, especially from amateur meteorologists. One of my favorite weather bloggers calls these folks “weather weenies.” I don’t expect such folks to even know what journalistic best practices are. Some of them aren’t even out of middle school yet!

Mainstream news outlets like MLive, however,  should try to separate themselves from the weather weenies of the world, but adhering to strict journalistic best practices, on Twitter and elsewhere.

The entire state of Indiana and parts  of other states (including Michigan and Ohio) have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all of the area covered by IMO SKYWARN.

The text of the outlook, however, indicates considerable uncertainty, in part because computerized numeric models of the atmosphere do not agree on how fast certain weather features will move. Storms along and ahead of a forecast cold front, however, will likely pose at least an “isolated/low-end risk” for severe straight-line wind and/or hail, according to the outlook.

Despite the uncertainty, SPC forecasters indicated that within the slight risk area (shaded in yellow on the map above), the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of any point is 15 percent. The normal probability in most of Indiana at this time of year is around two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, so that makes Wednesday’s probability about 7.5 times normal. Forecasters expect probabilities to change, however, in subsequent outlooks, as Wednesday draws near.

It would be wise for SKYWARN storm spotters in the area, as well as anyone who is concerned about severe weather, to monitor those outlooks.

The SPC’s next outlook for the period comes early tomorrow morning, when it issues the first of two day-two outlooks.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Analyze, Forecast and Support Office will host a workshop in Kansas City in October to discuss possible changes to the NWS watch, warning and advisory (WWA) system.

Workshop participants will review the results of surveys that provide insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the current WWA system, along with possible opportunities for system improvement.

The NWS intends to make any proposed changes to the WWA system available for public comment and review prior to any final decision on implementation.

The NWS is targeting this workshop at NWS staff members, emergency managers, members of America’s weather and climate industry, and social and behavioral scientists. Space is limited and participants will be selected on a first-come, first-served basis. A registration for is at https://ocwws.weather.gov/meetings/login.php?id=110.

While I don’t intend to attend the workshop, I’m eager to learn what comes of it. The WWA system has been around for a long time, yet members of the general public continue to display confusion about the differences between watches and warnings. Further, I frequently see evidence of citizens ignoring severe thunderstorm warnings because they’re not tornado warnings, despite the fact that a severe thunderstorm can deliver winds that are stronger than a weak tornado.

And ever since the 2012 derecho event that did so much damage from the Midwest to the east coast with straight-line winds, I’ve wondered if we need a new kind of thunderstorm warning, with a wind threshold that’s higher than 50 knots (58 mph).

Share your thoughts by using the comment link just under the title of this post. And feel free to share this post using the buttons below.

Extreme northern Indiana (shaded in red on the map above) – from Gary to Angola – has an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms  tonight, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:16 p.m. EDT. Parts of Indiana farther south have either a slight risk (yellow shading) or marginal risk (brown shading) of severe storms.

The greatest threat is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater. The enhanced risk area has a 30 percent probability of such winds. The normal probability in that area at this time of year is approximateley two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. That means today’s probability in the enhanced risk area is as much as 15 times normal.

Farther south,  probabilities range from 15 percent (7.5 times normal) in an area that includes Lafayette, Logansport, Rochester, Kokomo,  Warsaw, Marion and Fort Wayne; to five percent (2.5 times normal) in an area that includes Terre Haute, Indianapolis, Winchester and Portland; to less than five percent (around normal for this time of year).

Any severe storms that threaten Indiana are most likely this evening and during the overnight hours.

Because severe thunderstorms can be deadly, even when they don’t produce tornadoes, it would be wise for people in the northern half of the state to make sure their weather alert radios are working properly before they go to bed tonight.

SKYWARN storm spotters should be prepared for possible activation this evening and tonight.