The forecast intensity of a winter storm Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is much weaker than earlier forecasting models suggested, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” issued this morning by the Northern Indiana National Weather Service office.

Forecaster Sam Lashley writes of two low pressure systems, the first of which would bring rain to the northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio area Monday afternoon in to Tuesday. Some forecast models suggest that a second low pressure system will develop behind the first one, but others disagree.

If the secondary system develops, the area could get more snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day than if it does not, but meteorologists remain quite uncertain about what will happen.

For now, the bottom line is:

• There is still a chance of snow on Christmas Eve.
• Uncertainty continues regarding the track and strength of the storm.
• As of this morning, it appears that any significant snow accumulation will miss the northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio areas.
• Things could still change, so anyone who has holiday travel plans should keep checking back with www.weather.gov and other reliable sources of weather information.