Hype is already underway about a possible winter storm next week, writes meteorologist Sam Lashley of the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) in an “Area Forecast Discussion” (AFD) issued this morning. But “a lot of uncertainty remains with respect to the very important and critical details of when and where this storm will create impacts,” the AFD continues.

A “cautious but informative approach” is warranted, given the six- to seven-day time frame, Lashley writes. He expects “numerous critical changes and deviations” in computer forecasting model solutions with each model iteration over the next several days.

Broad agreement among models does provide higher than normal confidence that a substantial storm system will impact some part of the eastern continental United States by Christmas. That said, “Confidence remains below normal on important details, such as the track, precipitation type and amounts,” Lashley writes.

He concludes with, “Any snow that does fall by Christmas will certainly create travel issues and have significant impacts due to blowing and drifting.” This remains worthy of mention in NWS Hazardous Weather Outlooks, but “restraint should be exercised for now in the forecasts of track and snow amounts given little skill at this time range.”