Probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Fri., Sep. 5 and 8 a.m. EDT Sat. Brown area: 5 percent (below SPC “slight risk” criteria). White area: Less than 5 percent. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:26 a.m. EDT Sep. 4.
Meteorologists expect scattered thunderstorms in northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office issued at 4:43 a.m. EDT. There is a low risk that some of those storms could be strong, with isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.
The NWS storm prediction center gave the area a 5 percent probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 12:26 a.m. EDT. Five percent is below SPC’s “slight risk” criteria, but the SPC indicated that if higher probabilities are needed in future outlooks, “it would seem to be areas of lower Michigan into perhaps northern Indiana or northwestern Ohio.”
The next outlook for tomorrow will be an updated SPC day two outlook, due out by 1:30 p.m. EDT.
The Fort Wayne Tincaps minor league baseball team plays the first game of the Midwest League post-season playoffs tonight at Parkview Field in downtown Fort Wayne and the official National Weather Service forecast looks nice of an evening of baseball:
Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph.
The NWS game-time forecast is 80 degrees, with a relative humidity of 54 percent and a 5 mph breeze from the south. The temperature should drop to 72 degrees by 10 p.m.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
501 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-031230-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...
SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...
FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...
SPENCERVILLE
501 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 /401 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014/
...AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES AT
TIMES THIS MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHILE DRIVING AND BE
AWARE OF CHILDREN AT BUS STOPS...SCHOOL BUSES AND OTHER SLOWED OR
STOPPED TRAFFIC. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe storms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Green area: Thunderstorms, not expected to be severe. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:52 a.m. EDT.
Almost all of Indiana and parts of neighboring states have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT.
The primary threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and large hail of one inch or more in diameter this afternoon and early evening.
With the exception of small parts of Laporte and Berrien Counties, the slight risk area includes all of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office and therefore all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.
SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed late this afternoon through early tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 6:05 a.m EDT.
