Geography and severe weather probabilities remained pretty much the same when the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued its updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” at 12:28 p.m. EDT.

SPC meteorologists expect Thunderstorms, some severe, to develop near a cold front from the southern Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys into the Ozarks. Damaging winds will be the primary threat this afternoon through early tonight.

Some risk will exist for isolated tornadoes in addition to locally damaging wind through late afternoon from eastern Illinois east-northeastward into parts of Ohio and Lower Michigan.

The next update is due out by 4 p.m. EDT.