Risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and 8 a.m. EDT Sunday. Yellow shaded area: Slight risk. Green: Thunderstorms expected but none expected to be severe. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 2:03 a.m.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:03 a.m.
The slight risk area covers the northwestern half of the county warning area of the Northern Indiana NWS office. Except for a bit of northwestern Whitley County, IMO SKYWARN quadrant two lies outside the slight risk area.
That means that while thunderstorms are forecast in the Fort Wayne area for the popular Johnny Appleseed Festival, meteorologists do not at this time expect severe storms (i.e. storms with winds at or above 58 mph or hail of one inch diameter or larger) there.
The SPC will update its outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT today.
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage from Wednesday’s storm in Van Wert County yesterday. They found no evidence of a tornado touchdown but did find thunderstorm wind damage. Their preliminary report appears below.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
443 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 /343 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 09/10/14 THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE IN VAN
WERT COUNTY...OHIO.
.THUNDERSTORM WIND...
PEAK WIND: 60 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 5.5 MILES
SPORADIC STORM DAMAGE OBSERVED STARTING 5 MILES WSW OF
DELPHOS...OHIO AND TRAVELING TO 1.5 MILES NW OF DELPHOS OHIO WAS
DETERMINED TO BE CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ALONG THE PATH
THERE WAS CORN FLATTENED...TREES UPROOTED...AND MINOR STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO A FEW BARNS.
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.
Tree and barn roof damage from Wednesday’s storm. Photo provided by Van Wert County EMA.
A suspected tornado struck eastern Van Wert County yesterday afternoon. A storm cell moved through eastern Van Wert County at 5:10 p.m. EST just west of Delphos and caused damage over a 1.5-mile-long area, according to Van Wert County Emergency Management Director Rick McCoy.
McCoy said that based on witness reports and observed damage, it appeared that a tornado moved through the area but he was waiting on official confirmation from the National Weather Service (NWS). A survey team from the northern Indiana NWS office is scheduled to assess the site this afternoon.
McCoy’s own survey of the area and interviews with residents provided the following information:
The possible tornado initially touched down in a corn field east of Brickner Road, one tenth of a mile south of Lincoln Highway, which is 1.25 miles west of Delphos. The damage path in the corn field was 25 yards wide, where some corn stalks had been flattened and others ripped out of the ground and carried across Brickner Road.
The storm then crossed Brickner Road, moving to the northeast through a bean field.
It then struck the Craig Beining property at 10671 Brickner Road, ripping numerous shingles off a barn roof and tearing a barn door off of north side of barn.
The storm then crossed Lincoln Highway and struck the Joe Wittler property at 23121 Lincoln Highway, where it uprooted a tree and tore numerous limbs out of several trees. It then ripped a barn door off the east side of a Morton building, ripped off a door on the north side of a larger barn and tore numerous slate shingles from the barn’s roof.
Wittler told McCoy he saw the storm approaching but the possible tornado was wrapped in rain, so all he could see was all the shingles from the neighbor’s barn swirling around in the rain as it came at him. He said he heard a loud “whoosh” and that it hit before the family could even get to the basement.
The storm path continued northeastward, cutting through two bean fields and then crossed Pohlman Road. It then cut through another bean field and then came to the Gordon Moenter property, located at 9874 Shenk Road
There, McCoy found a damage path in a field that was 25 yards wide. The storm split a large tree and tore the roof off of a barn. McCoy found the roof in splintered pieces across the road and in a bean field. The storm also tore the barn door off the east side of another barn.
The storm path then continued northeastward through two more bean fields, where the damage path ended before it reached the intersection of U.S. 30 and the Ohio State Route 66.
The total damage path was 1.5 miles long. No injuries or damage to homes were reported.
McCoy estimated the tornado as high end EF-0 damage.
The vigorous storm system that moved through the area yesterday had been forecast several days in advance with the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
The National Weather Service canceled tornado watch 502 for the following counties as of 6:23 p.m. EDT:
IN NORTHERN INDIANA
JAY
IN NORTHWEST OHIO
ALLEN OH PUTNAM VAN WERT
The National Weather Service canceled tornado watch 502 for the following counties as of 5:47 p.m. EDT:
IN NORTHERN INDIANA:
ADAMS ALLEN IN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
MIAMI STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITLEY
IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN:
HILLSDALE
IN NORTHWEST OHIO:
DEFIANCE FULTON OH HENRY
PAULDING WILLIAMS
Area within the green polygon is under an urban and small stream flood advisory until 10 p.m. EDT.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
713 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014
INC001-003-069-179-110215-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FA.Y.0037.140910T2313Z-140911T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON IN-ADAMS IN-WELLS IN-
713 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
SOUTHERN ALLEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
EASTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHERN WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
* AT 711 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER BOWERSTOWN...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
EAST OF HUNTINGTON MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE AND ONE
HALF INCH ARE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG... #NWSIWX.
If you read convective outlooks as much as I do (especially during severe storm season), you’ll likely encounter a reference to a “shortwave,” which is an abbreviated way to mentioning a shortwave trough (area of low pressure) in the atmosphere. Shortwaves can help create thunderstorms.
Meteorologist Jason Myers published an excellent, short video explanation of shortwaves. Check it out, it’ll only take you 65 seconds!
Update: The NWS has canceled the tornado watch for northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio counties.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM
UNTIL 900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF TOLEDO
OHIO TO 20 MILES EAST OF BLOOMINGTON INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
TORNADO WATCH 501 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
INC001-003-005-009-011-013-021-029-031-033-035-041-047-053-055-
057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-093-095-097-103-105-109-
119-133-135-137-139-145-151-159-161-169-177-179-183-110100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW
BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN
CLAY DEARBORN DECATUR
DELAWARE DE KALB FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GRANT GREENE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS
HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON
JACKSON JAY JENNINGS
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MADISON
MARION MIAMI MONROE
MORGAN OWEN PUTNAM
RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH
SHELBY STEUBEN TIPTON
UNION WABASH WAYNE
WELLS WHITLEY
MIC059-091-115-110100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HILLSDALE LENAWEE MONROE
OHC003-011-017-021-033-037-039-043-051-063-065-069-077-091-095-
101-107-109-113-123-125-135-137-143-147-149-159-161-171-173-175-
110100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AUGLAIZE BUTLER
CHAMPAIGN CRAWFORD DARKE
DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HENRY
HURON LOGAN LUCAS
MARION MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY OTTAWA PAULDING
PREBLE PUTNAM SANDUSKY
SENECA SHELBY UNION
VAN WERT WILLIAMS WOOD
WYANDOT
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
133 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
SOUTHERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 131 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LA
FONTAINE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS...HANFIELD...SERVIA...LANDESS...LINCOLNVILLE...BANQUO...
PLEASANT PLAIN...MOUNT ETNA AND LANCASTER.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 269 AND
276.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
Geography and severe weather probabilities remained pretty much the same when the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued its updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” at 12:28 p.m. EDT.
SPC meteorologists expect Thunderstorms, some severe, to develop near a cold front from the southern Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys into the Ozarks. Damaging winds will be the primary threat this afternoon through early tonight.
Some risk will exist for isolated tornadoes in addition to locally damaging wind through late afternoon from eastern Illinois east-northeastward into parts of Ohio and Lower Michigan.
SPC is monitoring trends within the red, scalloped loop to determine if a watch will be needed this afternoon.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center is monitoring trends in the area indicated on the map above for any increase in thunderstorm activity late this morning through early afternoon and for a conditional tornado threat, according to a “Mesoscale Discussion” it issued at 11:34 a.m. EDT.
A leading shortwave trough is currently moving across northern Illinois and will continue rapidly northeastward across Indiana, northwestern Ohio and Lower Michigan.
Around 10:30 a.m. EDT, a weak thunderstorm showed brief supercell characteristics over central Illinois. This suggests the environment is close to being favorable for at least brief tornadoes.
A limiting factor is extensive cloud cover ahead of the leading band of precipitation, but partial heating is occurring across southwestern Indiana.
It is unclear whether atmospheric destabilization will be sufficient for further supercell development today before the aforementioned shortwave trough moves through. Once that wave passes, early potential for severe storms should be largely over, with any additional and primarily wind threat focusing southwestward along the trailing cold front.
