Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 12:30 p.m. today (June 17) and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Green area: General, non-severe thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 12:27p.m.

Nearly all of the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) county warning area (CWA) now has a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:27 p.m. EDT. The following counties are the only ones in the CWA that are entirely out of the slight risk area: Grant, Blackford and Jay. An earlier version of the outlook excluded more counties on the south side of the CWA.

Damaging straight-line winds and hail remain the primary threats, but a short-lived tornado is also possible.

The severe storms are most likely this evening through the overnight hours, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 1:24 p.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight.

Our next update of the severe weather picture for this evening and tonight comes when the SPC issues an updated day one outlook by 4 p.m. EDT.

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. today (June 17) and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Green area: General, non-severe thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 8:44 a.m.

Extreme northern Indiana and nearby areas have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:44 a.m. today.

The slight risk area covers essentially the northern three quarters of the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office, or all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants one and four and the northern parts of quadrants two and three. Quadrant two counties included in the slight risk area today are Whitley, Allen (Ind.), Paulding and Putnam.

The primary threat in the slight risk area is damaging straight-line wind of 58 mph or more. Storms could affect the area as early as late this morning but they’re more likely from this afternoon into this evening.

The SPC will update its day one outlook by 12:30 p.m. and 4 p.m. today.

Tomorrow

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. tomorrow (June 18) and 8 a.m. Thursday. Green area: General, non-severe thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: Day 2 Convective Outlook issued at 1:33 a.m.

The entire northern Indiana CWA has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. tomorrow and 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 1:33 a.m. today. Tomorrow’s slight risk area covers most of the northern half of Indiana and large parts of nearby states.

Forecasters expect widespread storms by late afternoon tomorrow from northern Illinois and Indiana into Pennsylvania and southern New York. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but the atmosphere will be also unstable enough for large hail.

The SPC will update its day two outlook by 1:30 p.m. EDT today. The subsequent update comes as tomorrow’s first day one outlook by 2 a.m. EDT.

Preparation

If you’ll be in the slight risk areas today or tomorrow, plan to have a way to learn of any watches or warnings the NWS might issue, especially if you’ll be involved in outdoor activities, such as sporting events. Also have a plan for seeking safe shelter.

If you’re a SKYWARN storm spotter, be prepared for activation. Check your communications equipment, review reporting criteria, etc.

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. Wednesday, June 18 and 8 a.m. Thursday, June 19. Green area: Thunderstorms, but not severe. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office. Source: Storm Prediction Center “Day 3 Convective Outlook.”

The northern fourth of Indiana and parts of several nearby states have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, June 18 and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, June 19, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:24 a.m. EDT today.

The main threats will be damaging straight-line winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher and marginally severe hail of one inch in diameter.

As you can see on the map above, the slight risk area includes most of the Indiana, Michigan and Ohio counties that are in the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office. The only CWA counties completely outside the slight risk area are Grant, Blackford and Jay.

If you’re planning any outdoor activities in the slight risk area Wednesday, be sure you have some way of knowing about any storm watches or warnings that the NWS might issue. Also be sure you have identified safe shelter nearby.

If you’re a SKYWARN storm spotter, fuel up your vehicle and charge up and check your communications equipment, so you’ll be ready for activation on Wednesday.

Risk areas often change as the outlook period nears. The SPC will issue its next outlook for the period by 2 a.m. tomorrow (the first of two “Day 2 Convective Outlooks” it will issue tomorrow). So check back tomorrow to see how the outlook might have changed.  

In mid-May, NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Michael Lewis sent an email message to spotters with the graphic above, to remind them of the best ways to report various severe weather phenomena. He also asked spotters to review the following Web pages:

• Reporting methods: tinyurl.com/iwx-methods
• Spotter aids: tinyurl.com/spotter-aids
• Situational awareness: tinyurl.com/iwx-sit-aware

Steve Haxby, N9MEL. KU8T photo

Steve Haxby, N9MEL is now an official net control station operator for the IMO SKYWARN quadrant two net on the ACARTS 146.88 MHz repeater. Steve has maintained his official NWS spotter training and is well acquainted with public safety work, having retired from the Allen County Police Department. If you hear him take a shift, please congratulate him and welcome him to the position. As a reminder, should the 146.88 MHz demonstrate performance issues during SKYWARN operations, SKYWARN will move to the FWRC 146.76 MHz repeater. Also, keep in mind that our net in Fort Wayne simultaneously serves as an Allen County (Ind.) net and a quadrant net, serving 11 counties. See a map of IMO SKYWARN quadrants.

Fort Wayne ham radio operators assist members of the general public at a NOAA Weather Radio programming event, May 17, 2014. KU8T photo.

Several local hams configured dozens of NOAA weather radios for members of the general public at two Fort Wayne events in May. The first was Monday afternoon and evening, May 12, at the Walgreen’s store on Coldwater Road at Dupont Road. The second was Saturday afternoon, May 17 at the Kroger Marketplace on West Jefferson Boulevard.

The following people did an excellent job assisting the public and representing amateur radio: Tom Baker, N9TB; Al Burke, WB9SSE; Jim Boyer, KB9IH; Steve Haxby, N9MEL; Jim Moehring, KB9WWM; Howard Pletcher, N9ADS; Tom Rupp, KU8T; and Charles Ward, KC9MUT. Representatives of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security and WANE TV also participated. Photos of both events are available on the Fort Wayne Radio Club website.

When correctly programmed, these radios remain silent until the National Weather Service issues a watch or warning for the user’s specific county. This eliminates the annoyance of being alerted to far-away storms and therefore reduces the temptation to shut off the radio, rendering it useless when a storm actually threatens the user.

If you don’t have such a radio, I strongly recommend obtaining one. Post a comment below if you have any questions about NOAA Weather Radios, etc. 

Top: Tornado watch #218. Bottom: Tornado watch #219

The National Weather Service has issued two tornado watches that affect southern Indiana and nearby areas (see map above). Both Tornado Watch 218 and Tornado Watch 219 expire at 9 p.m. EDT.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued “Mesoscale Discussion Number 814,” which indicates that parts of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western and central Kentucky and southern Indiana (outlined in map graphic above) have an 80 percent probability of a weather watch by 3:30 p.m. EDT and possibly earlier. Large hail and damaging straight-line winds appear to be the greatest threats.