Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of a point. Brown area: five percent. Yellow: 15 percent. Red: 30 percent. Purple: 45 percent (moderate risk) plus a 10 percent chance of “significant” gusts to 75 mph or greater. Highlighted counties: county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:33 p.m. EDT.

A larger portion of northwestern Indiana has a moderate risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:33 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the risk for IMO SKYWARN quadrant two did not change from the previous outlook.

The primary threat remains damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or stronger but there’s also a risk of one-inch or larger hail and an occasional tornado.

In quadrant two counties covered by the slight risk area, the probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point remain at 15 percent for winds of 58 mph or higher and one-inch or larger hail and two percent for a tornado.

The northwestern counties that are in the a moderate risk area have a 45 percent probability of 58 mph thunderstorm winds and a 10 percent probability of gusts to 75 mph or higher.

The next update to the convective outlook for today is due by 4 p.m. EDT.