Convective outlook issued at 3:06 a.m. EDT. Yellow area: slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday. Green area: non-severe thunderstorms.

All but extreme northern Indiana has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:06 a.m. EDT. As you can see on the map at right, the slight risk area also includes all put a tiny part of northwestern Ohio and large parts of West Virginia, Kentucky and Illinois. The slight risk area includes all counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, although northern Whitley County is not in the slight risk area.

If severe thunderstorms develop in the slight risk area, meteorologists expect it to happen Wednesday afternoon and/or evening, after daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. They indicate that damaging straight-line winds and large hail will be the greatest risks Wednesday.

We’ll know more about Wednesday’s severe weather risk when the SPC issues its first “Day 2 Convective Outlook” for the period, early tomorrow morning (the link above won’t work until after the SPC issues the outlook at about 2 a.m.).

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1119 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO ABOVE NEWVILLE AFFECTING ALLEN...DE KALB AND
  DEFIANCE COUNTIES


.HEAVY RAINS THIS PAST WEEK HAVE CAUSED THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
ABOVE NEWVILLE TO RISE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-161519-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0069.140516T1200Z-140519T0600Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.140516T1200Z.140517T0600Z.140518T0600Z.NO/
1119 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO ABOVE NEWVILLE
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING  
  AND CREST NEAR 12.3 FEET AROUND 2 PM SATURDAY MAY 17 AND FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MAY 18.
* AT 12.0 FEET...DEKALB COUNTY ROAD 42 ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
  NEWVILLE FLOODS. AGRICULTURAL AND LOW LANDS FLOOD ALONG THE ST. 
  JOSEPH RIVER TO THE CEDARVILLE RESERVOIR.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.1 FEET WHICH OCCURRED 
  ON DEC 14 2007.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon as a pre-frontal air mass gradually destabilizes. Though a few marginally severe hail or wind events will be possible with stronger cells, a watch is not anticipated, according to a mesoscale discussion the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:37 a.m. EDT.

Radar showed thunderstorms gradually increasing in a band from southern lower Michigan south-southwestward into southwestern Indiana, along a slowly advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front and storms, the atmosphere is becoming moderately unstable and sunshine is heating moist air, with dew points are in the upper 60s.

Although the thermodynamic environment will support additional increases in storm coverage and/or intensity, the high-altitude winds will limit widespread severe potential. As such, somewhat weakly organized storms are expected. Thus, with only an isolated severe risk expected, a watch will likely remain unnecessary across the region.

Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight. Green area: Non-severe thunderstorms.

Portions of northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:39 a.m. EDT. The main threats from these storms will be damaging straight-line winds and hail. In addition to these, torrential rain is possible, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 8:58 a.m. EDT.

That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed later this afternoon and this evening.

The slight risk area includes Allen and Whitley Counties of Indiana and counties to the west and north of them. It also includes Paulding and Putnam Counties of Ohio and counties to the north.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

ALLEN IN-WHITLEY IN-HUNTINGTON IN-
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
  NORTHERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
  WHITLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT

* AT 1041 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED    
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED     
  AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE    
  THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.