Monthly Archives: October 2013

SKYWARN

Local NWS: Severe risk falls to near zero

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued an Areal Forecast Discussion at 4:58 p.m. EDT in which a forecaster writes that the potential for severe weather this evening appears “well in check and approaching zero, though never quite removed entirely.”

A narrow line of intense showers is forecast to move through this evening along an approaching cold front. The forecaster writes that line will bring a risk of strong wind gusts.

The forecaster also writes, however, that pervasive, sustained rainfall throughout the day has effectively stymied the development of thunderstorms along an approaching cold front.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather remains in 4 p.m. update

A slight risk of severe weather continues for most of Indiana, extreme southern Michigan and most of Ohio, according to an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 4:02 p.m. EDT. The slight risk areas in the latest update are essentially the same as they were in the 9 a.m. update. The main difference is that extreme western and southwestern Indiana now have a slightly enhanced threat of a tornado.

The northern Indiana NWS office indicated in an infographic a short while ago (see my earlier post) that any severe weather in northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio is not expected to occur before 10 p.m.

In addition, in an email sent to SKYWARN storm spotters at 12:13 p.m. EDT, NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Michael Lewis wrote that the day’s steady rainfall had greatly reduced the risk of severe weather but that isolated severe thunderstorms remained possible along and slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. The most likely severe threat is wind gusts of 55 mph to 60 mph. Forecaster expect no hail.

The area of greatest threat is along, south and east of U.S. 24.

Lewis said the following storm impacts are possible; branches down, weakened and dead trees down, and scattered power outages. Also, damage to weak and compromised buildings and other structures is possible.

There’s also a flooding threat. Additional rainfall amounts through midnight of one to two inches (with isolated higher amounts with thunderstorms) are possible. Significant leaf fall has caused drain blockages and subsequent street flooding.

SKYWARN

NWS issues advisory for SKYWARN storm spotters

At 10:12 a.m. EDT, Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana National Weather Service office, issued the following advisory to trained SKYWARN storm spotters:

From: Michael Lewis
Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:12 AM
Subject: Weather Information – 10/31/2013

Severe weather in Northern Indiana/Southern Lower Michigan and Northwest Ohio is not limited to the Spring.  September-November is another peak period for severe weather.

We are currently assessing the latest model data concerning the potential for severe weather today.

We will post our assessment as soon as we have a better idea of timing, duration and intensity.   It is hoped to have this posted before noon today.

In the meantime, the NWS in Northern Indiana continues to monitor Social Media (Facebook and Twitter)

All spotters are encouraged to review the reporting requirements and communications methods. 

Skywarn Spotter Resource Page:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=nwsnorthernindianaskywarnpage#Downloads

======================================================
Northern Indiana continually monitors:

* Social Media – (Facebook / Twitter)

* e-mail (w-iwx.webmaster@noaa.gov)

Webpages of interest:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/live
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=embrief
http://preview.weather.gov/edd/
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=nwsnorthernindianaskywarnpage

SKYWARN

Severe weather risk doesn’t affect official trick-or-treating hours

Seal of the City of Fort Wayne

The mayor and police chief of the City of Fort Wayne issued a statement this morning that official trick-or-treating hours in the city will remain 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. EDT this evening, despite the risk of severe weather today.

The statement reads, in part, “Though we received some inquiries into the rescheduling of Trick-or-Treating due to the weather forecast, it was decided that because of several area events already scheduled for Friday evening, the move would create a burden for many families.”

Read the entire statement.

SKYWARN

Tornadoes always possible in late fall

Photo of damaged cinema from 2002 tornado in Van Wert, Ohio
Van Wert cinema destroyed by November 10, 2002 tornado. (From NWS website).

While spring is the main season for tornadoes, don’t rule them out in late fall. You can bet the people of Van Wert, Ohio won’t. An F4 tornado hit that city on November 10, 2002. The same day, an F3 tornado touched down near Berne, Indiana, an F1 hit Hartford city and an F0 touched down near the southeastern Wells County village of Petroleum. Read more about the November 10, 2002 outbreak.

So, are we in for another day like November 10, 2002, today? Probably not, according to meteorologists at the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service. The amount of atmospheric instability forecast for today is significantly less and more conditional than it was for the 2002 outbreak. In addition, several other meteorological metrics are below the levels seen in 2002.

SKYWARN

Severe weather risk continues to haunt Halloween

Wind and tornado probability maps from 9 a.m. EDT convective outlook
Top: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph )or higher within 25 miles of a point (yellow = 15%). Bottom: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point (green = 2%).

All of Indiana remains at slight risk of severe weather today, according to the Day One Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm (NWS) Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:50 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area also includes approximately the southern third of lower Michigan and all but extreme southeastern Ohio. It includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

The primary risk is damaging straight-line wind. The probability of damaging winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of any point is 15 percent throughout the slight risk area. There’s also a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in an area that includes most of Indiana and two counties into Ohio (for SKYWARN spotters, the 2 percent tornado probability includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrants two and three, a large part of quadrant 4 and a small part of quadrant one).

The chance of thunderstorms will increase early this evening as a cold front approaches from the west, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:21 a.m. EDT. Forecaster also indicated that locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible from today through this evening that could lead to localized flooding of low lying and poorly drained areas (including streets where catch basins are blocked by leaves).

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this evening, according to the HWO. See an email message to spotters sent mid-morning by the warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana NWS office.

The mayor and police chief of the City of Fort Wayne have decided not to change today’s official trick-or-treating hours in the city (read more). Parents who plan to take their children trick-or-treating this evening should have some means of receiving immediate word of any watches or warnings that the NWS might issue. Possibilities include keeping the car radio tuned to a local station, signing up for text alerts available on the websites of many local media outlets and/or installing a weather alert smartphone app.

We’ll get our next looks at today’s severe weather risk with updated convective outlooks that are due by 12:30 p.m. 4 p.m. and 8 p.m.

You can also learn more about today’s weather event by watching and/or participating in a Twitter “tweet-up” that the northern Indiana NWS office will conduct between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. EDT. Read more about the tweet-up.

October is not part of peak tornado season but that’s no reason to ignore today’s risks. Read more.

SKYWARN

NWS office to discuss Halloween weather on Twitter

NWS tweet-up graphic (see text below)

For visually impaired readers whose screen readers won’t be able to read the graphic above, here’s the gist: The Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service will conduct at “tweet up” tomorrow afternoon, during which it will use Twitter to send live updates on Halloween weather and answer questions from Twitter users. The tweet up will run from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. October 31. To participate, use Twitter to follow @NWSIWX and include that tag in any questions you tweet.

If you don’t have a Twitter account, you can still read all the tweets using this Web link.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of scary weather on Halloween

Convective outlook map

All of Indiana most of the western half of Ohio and extreme southern Michigan are at slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, October 31 and 8 a.m. EDT Friday, November 1, according to the Day Two Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:26 p.m. EDT today. The slight risk area includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

Halloween afternoon, forecasters expect a line of thunderstorms to develop and move rapidly eastward. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds. The line of storms could bend, however, into a bow or wave pattern, which could support tornadoes embedded within the line.

Parents venturing out with trick-or-treaters should make sure they have a way to receiving word of any storm watches or warnings that might come out tomorrow afternoon and evening. Possibilities include keeping the car radio tuned to a local station, signing up for text alerts available on the websites of many local media outlets and/or installing a weather alert smartphone app. SKYWARN spotters should prepare for the possibility of activation Thursday afternoon and/or evening.

The next update on severe weather risk for Halloween comes with the first Day One Convective Outlook of the day, due at approximately 2 a.m. EDT. Additional updates will follow at 9 a.m., 12:30 p.m. 4 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Traffic handling

Service messages go to station of origination, not signatory

Today I received an unusually addressed service message that indicates that some NTS participants don’t completely understand how service messages work. For those who are unaware, a “service message” is a radiogram about a radiogram. We send service messages when radiograms’ handling instructions request them and when we are unable to deliver or relay someone else’s radiogram.

Although the service message described what happened to a message I originated, the service message was addressed to someone other than me.

The situation surrounding the original radiogram was somewhat unusual, but certainly not unheard of. To protect the names of those involved, I’m going to fictionalize the examples below. Here’s what my original message looked like:

NR 100 R W9LW ARL 3 BLUFFTON IN OCT 28
JANE DOE
1234 MAIN STREET
SOME TOWN, GA
555-555-5555
(BREAK)
ARL SIXTY HALLOWEEN
(BREAK)
SAM WB9XXX

Notice that the station of origination in the preamble is W9LW but the call sign in the signature is WB9XXX. Why would this happen? Perhaps the signatory ham’s station is off the air, or perhaps he has no privileges on HF net frequencies and no VHF net within range. Regardless, when the signatory contacts the station of origination by any means other than ham radio and requests the sending of a radiogram, the call sign in the signature ends up different than the call sign in the preamble, because the station of origination in the preamble is always the first station to put the message on the air.

A station close to the destination address attempted to deliver the message via phone. The addressee did not reply to his voice mail message, so the operator sent a service message regarding my message number 100, above. Here’s how the service message looked:

NR 500 R WA4XXX ARL 11 SOME TOWN, GA OCT 29
SAM WB9XXX C/O W9LW
BLUFFTON, IN
(BREAK)
ARL SIXTY SEVEN 100 NO
REPLY TO VOICE MAIL X
73
(BREAK)
TOM WA4XXX

In this example, WA4XXX incorrectly addressed the service message to WB9XXX, who was the signatory of my message number 100. WA4XXX should have addressed the service message to W9LW, because W9LW was the station of origination in the preamble of message number 100.

If you ever handle a message in which the call sign in the preamble is different than the call sign in the signature, remember that any service message should be addressed to the station in the preamble, not the station in the signature.