Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

The Northern third of Indiana, the northwestern quarter of Ohio, all of lower Michigan and large parts of Illinois and Indiana (see map at left) have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:52 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, except Blackford and Jay Counties.

The largest risk is damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher but there’s also a risk of hail of one inch diameter or larger and a smaller risk of a tornado.

Thunderstorms will develop in northwestern Indiana during the mid to late afternoon hours today, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at  4:59 a.m. EDT. Those storms should shift southeastward across far northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional storms might develop later tonight, as a cold front gets closer.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight.

The SPC will update the Day 1 Convective Outlook at around 9 a.m. and I’ll post a more detailed message to this blog after that update comes out.

Regarding the Day 2 Convective Outlook, the latest version of the product no longer indicates a severe weather risk in Indiana for the period from 8 a.m. EDT Saturday to 8 a.m. EDT Sunday. A slight risk remains in place for that period, however, for most of Ohio.