The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be between 8 p.m. EDT and midnight across the northern part of the forecast area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office (e.g. north of the Indiana and Ohio toll roads). That’s according to an Area Forecast Discussion that the office issued at 4:29 p.m.

Atmospheric conditions that support storm development are on their way, especially the upward forcing provided by a cold front and a strong change in wind speeds with altitude. But by the time those conditions get to the office’s forecast area, the atmosphere will have become more stable, as it usually does as temperatures fall in the evening. If instability is insufficient by the time the cold front arrives, we might get rain but no severe storms. If severe storms do form, the main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.